Argentina was never supposed to be in this position. With one match left in the round-robin World Cup qualifying in CONMEBOL, Lionel Messi and his squad need all three points to stay alive. The Argentines are far from a lock against an Ecuador team that would love nothing more than to send one of their South American rivals out of the World Cup.
At 7:30 p.m. ET, tune into beIN Sports for live television coverage of this World Cup Qualifying match on Tuesday, October 10, 2017, at Estadio Olimpico Atahualpa.
Soccer Odds at BookMaker.eu
Ecuador +600
Argentina -220
Draw +350
Over/Under 3
Odds Analysis
Argentina is in a world of hurt right now. The team hasn't performed at all in World Cup qualifying, and this isn't an easy match either.
Of course, you wouldn't know that by looking at the World Cup qualifying odds. Ecuador is a whopping 6 to 1 underdog in this one. All eyes are going to be on Argentina at -220. That's a hefty price on a team that has won just two away matches in CONMEBOL qualifying and has just 25 of a possible 51 points.
How They Got Here
The good news for Argentina is that it knows it's going to finish at least in fifth place if it wins this match in spite of the fact that it enters this fixture sixth best.
There are a slew of permutations here that are possible that could get the Argentines into the World Cup. Even in the event of a loss, Argentina can still reach the intercontinental playoff if Peru loses to Colombia by more goals than it does to Ecuador and Paraguay doesn't defeat Venezuela.
Argentina can finish as high as third in this group with a win and could ultimately finish as high as fourth with a draw. That said, even in the event of a draw, nothing is guaranteed. The Argentines could still finish sixth if Peru and Colombia draw or if Paraguay beats Venezuela.
Ecuador's World Cup dreams ended last week when it went to Chile and was defeated 2-1. There was a moment of respite when Romario Ibarra scored in the 82nd minute to tie that match at 1-1 in Santiago, but Alexis Sanchez's goal in the 85th minute removed all doubt.
Still, the Ecuadorians have 20 points in this very difficult group, and that's nothing to be ashamed of.
The first qualifying battle between these two in Buenos Aires was one of the many matches that the Argentinians will rue if they don't reach the World Cup. In spite of the fact that they were huge favorites on the day, they were beaten 2-0 and booed off of their own pitch. Ecuador scored two goals in quick succession, Frickson Erazo in the 81st minute to put the visitors ahead and Felipe Caicedo in the 82nd minute to ice the match.
That, of course, was the first match in qualifying for these two. They've come a long way since that point in October 2015, and these are going to be two totally different teams.
Free Soccer Betting Pick
We just can't trust Argentina at a price like this one. Messi has never been able to come up big on the biggest stage, and this could be yet another match where he falters miserably.
The Argentines couldn't get a goal on the board at home against Peru five days ago, and they're now going to have to figure out how to get the job done against a solid, yet unspectacular Ecuador team that has one of the better home field advantages in South America.
This is really more about fading Argentina than anything else. We think it's going to walk out of town with another scoreless draw, and it'll be up to fate to determine if that's enough to ultimately get to the World Cup or not.
World Cup Qualifying Odds: Ecuador 0, Argentina 0
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