England is going to win Group F in World Cup qualifying. We know this. What we don't know is who's going to finish second amongst the other five teams and whether that team that does finish second is going to have a shot to play in the playoff against other second place teams on the eve of the World Cup. Slovenia is in that coveted second place spot right now, but it has its work cut out for it in a match against Scotland that might be the biggest for the Tartan Army in this qualifying effort.
Don't miss the World Cup Qualifying action from Hampden Park at 3:45 p.m. ET on Sunday, March 26, 2017. Catch every moment of the match live on ESPN3.
Soccer Odds at BookMaker.eu
Scotland +140
Slovenia +230
Draw +210
Over/Under 2
Odds Analysis
Goals are going to be few and far between in this match in all likelihood with a total being set at a flat 2. Not surprisingly, there isn't a heck of a lot separating the three possible results of this fixture as well.
Scotland has the slight nod on its side at +140 on the moneyline, and at least in early betting, more of the money has come in on that than any other wager on the board. The Slovenians are +230 to take the three crucial away points, while the draw is set at +210 and might be the most sensible of all of the results with a 1-1 draw being the favored price for a final score.
How They've Performed
In a word, Slovenia has performed admirably in Group F. This team isn't the most talented in Europe by any stretch of the imagination, but it has managed to take a point from England at home and one from Lithuania on the road. That said, there are still some insanely hard matches left to be played, including going to England in October and visiting Slovakia, a team that was beaten at home, on September 1.
Scotland only has one win thus far in four matches, and that came on the road against Malta. Considering the fact that Malta only has one goal ( a goal that was scored against the Scots ) against 10 allowed in the four fixtures though, this isn't exactly a huge accomplishment. The Tartan Army have been brutalized at England and Slovakia with matching 3-0 results, while at home, they took a point from Lithuania. Scotland must do better to have any chance of reaching the World Cup, and that discussion very well could start and stop with this match. A loss, and there really won't be any way back. A win though, and there's a chance to be just two points off from being a second place team with five matches left to be played, three of which will come at home.
Free Soccer Betting Pick
The Scots certainly have some really good, young players on their roster. 19-year old Oliver Burke and 19-year old Kieran Tierney, playing for RB Leipzig and Celtic respectively, are both being called up for these fixtures, and both could be in starring roles really soon for this team. But if we're being honest, this is probably the second least talented side in this group aside from perhaps Lithuania.
This Slovenian midfield is pretty darn good with Valter Birsa, Josip Ilicic and Jasmin Kurtic doing all of the heavy lifting, and we just don't think Scotland is going to get enough of the ball in this one to make a difference. The oddsmakers have made a link here to home pitch advantage, and as a result, we think they've made a big mistake with this line. We're not saying that Slovenia is absolutely going to get the three points, but we think it accomplishes the goal around half the time, and that's more than good enough for us at a payoff price of +230.
World Cup Qualifying Odds: Slovenia 2, Scotland 1
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