Roger Federer is favored to win the Australian Open at odds of +185, while Rafael Nadal is the second choice at +405. The path for Federer to win this 20th Grand Slam title was made easier by the withdrawal of Andy Murray who is out due to injury. It also helps his cause that Nadal has not played well recently, while Novak Djokovic is still not at full strength, as he comes back from a right elbow injury. Let’s look at the first major of the season, the latest odds and picks.
Men’s Australian Open Odds
Roger Federer +185
Rafael Nadal +405
Novak Djokovic +706
Grigor Dimitrov +1166
Nick Kyrgios +1326
Alexander Zverev +1717
Juan Martin del Potro +2078
David Goffin +2095
Marin Cilic +3658
Stan Wawrinka +4041
Dominic Thiem +5629
Milos Raonic +6050
Jack Sock +6050
Kevin Anderson +8156
Tomas Berdych +8550
Roberto Bautista Agut +10250
Gael Monfils +11250
Jo Wilfred Tsonga +12542
Sam Querry +20250
John Isner +20250
Denis Shapovalov +20250
Top Contenders
If you consider health, then it is really Federer as the clear favorite. He is 100%, while Nadal and Djokovic are not. Nadal has been dealing with a knee injury, while Djokovic hasn’t done anything in six months, as he is coming back from an arm injury. Murray is out due to a hip injury and Stan Wawrinka is dealing with a knee injury.
Nadal is the top seed in Melbourne, but he pulled out of Brisbane due to injury and it is hard to see him winning this event at less than 100%. The good news for Nadal is that he has an easy draw that could allow him to make the quarterfinals. The two dangerous third round opponents for Nadal could be Damir Dzumhur or Diego Schwartzman. Nadal could face someone like Marin Cilic or Gilles Simon in the quarterfinals.
The second seed is Federer and he also has an easy draw. The two players who could give him trouble are seventh seed David Goffin and 12th seed Juan Martin del Potro. Goffin beat Federer in their last matchup.
If Djokovic was healthy you could make a strong case for him as the favorite in this event, as he has won it six times, but Djokovic has said he is not 100%. I think one of the Zverev brothers will beat him in the quarterfinals.
I don’t want to leave out Nick Kyrgios as a contender, as he has been getting some attention from bettors. He is now the fifth choice in the betting odds. The problem with taking him is that he has never made it past the quarterfinals in a major, but he is playing at home and if he keeps his emotions in check he could make the semifinals.
Seeds
1. Rafael Nadal
2. Roger Federer
3. Grigor Dimitrov
4. Alexander Zverev
5. Dominic Thiem
6. Marin Cilic
7. David Goffin
8. Jack Sock
9. Stan Wawrinka
10. Pablo Carreno Busta
11. Kevin Anderson
12. Juan Martin del Potro
13. Sam Querrey
14. Novak Djokovic
15. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
16. John Isner
17. Nick Kyrgios
18. Lucas Pouille
19. Tomas Berdych
20. Roberto Bautista Agut
21. Albert Ramos-Vinolas
22. Milos Raonic
23. Gilles Muller
24. Diego Schwartzman
25. Fabio Fognini
26. Adrian Mannarino
27. Philipp Kohlschreiber
28. Damir Dzumhur
29. Richard Gasquet
30. Andrey Rublev
31. Pablo Cuevas
32. Mischa Zverev
Matchups to Watch
In the upper half of the draw keep an eye on Nadal if he makes it to the quarterfinals as expected. He could be facing either Muller or Cilic. He is 5-2 against Muller but Muller beat him last year, while Nadal is 5-1 in his career against Cilic.
Federer has some potential landmines in his draw, as he could have to face del Potro, Goffin, Djokovic or Wawrinka. Federer is 18-6 against del Potro and he is 6-1 against Goffin. Federer has owned Wawrinka, going 20-3 against him, while Djokovic has a 23-22 record against Federer.
Tennis Picks
Federer is the obvious choice to win this event, but I just can’t see any value at taking him at odds of less than 2-1. If Djokovic was 100% I would make him my top choice, but I can’t take him at less than full strength and I have no confidence Nadal is healthy. That takes us down the odds board to Dimitrov and Kyrgios, so I will take them both at double-digit odds.
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