Rafael Nadal is favored to win the China Open, which begins in Beijing this week. It will be the first action for Nadal since he won the U.S. Open last month. Nadal may not have an easy path to the title, as he opens up against Lucas Pouille who beat him last year. He may also have to face John Isner or Grigor Dimitrov before a projected final against World No. 4 Alexander Zverev. Nadal is the top choice in the betting odds at +150, while Zverev is the second choice at +600. Let’s look at this event, tennis odds and tennis picks.
China Open Tennis Odds
Rafael Nadal +150
Alexander Zverev +600
Nick Kyrgios +700
Juan Martin del Potro +1000
Tomas Berdych +1200
Roberto Bautista Agut +1400
Grigor Dimitrov +1400
John Isner +1600
Pablo Carreno Busta +2600
Jack Sock +2800
Kyle Edmund +4000
Karen Khachanov +4000
Fernando Verdasco +4000
Damir Dzumhur +5000
Fabio Fognini +5000
Lucas Pouille +5000
Andrey Rublev +5000
Mischa Zverev +5000
Pablo Cuevas +6600
Jared Donaldson +6600
Jan-Lennard Struff +6600
Robin Haase +8000
Leonardo Mayer +8000
Nikoloz Basilashvili +10000
Aljaz Bedene +10000
Steve Darcis +10000
Malek Jaziri +10000
Dusan Lajovic +10000
Marcel Granollers +15000
Paolo Lorenzi +15000
Wu Di +25000
Zhang Ze +25000
Top Contenders
Nadal is the obvious choice, as he is the No. 1 ranked player in the world and the top seed for this event. It may not be a walk in the park for him, as other contenders include Zverev, who is ranked No. 4 in the world, Dimitrov, who is ranked No. 8 and Pablo Carreno Busta, who is ranked No. 10.
Seeds
- Rafael Nadal
- Alexander Zverev
- Grigor Dimitrov
- Pablo Carreno Busta
- Roberto Bautista Agut
- John Isner
- Tomas Berdych
- Nick Kyrgios
Matchups to Watch
Rarely is a first round matchup a major concern for a top seed, but Nadal does open up against Pouille who beat him in the fourth round of last year’s U.S. Open. Nadal will not be overlooking Pouille this time around, but it is still an interesting first round matchup. Another first round matchup that holds some intrigue is Zverev going up against Dzumhur who won his first title earlier this year in St. Petersburg.
The projected quarterfinals in the top half of the draw would have Nadal facing Isner and if that matchup occurs, Nadal would be a good bet to win, as he has won all six of his previous matchups against Isner. The other quarterfinal would be Dimitrov vs. Bautista Agut if the seeds hold up, and these two have split their four previous meetings. Nadal has dominated Dimitrov, as he is 8-1 against him, and Nadal is 2-0 in his career against Bautista Agut.
The bottom half of the draw should be controlled by Zverev, as he is looking for his sixth title this season.
If the seeding holds up then it would be Nadal taking on Zverev in the final. These two have played three times with Nadal winning all three. They met at the Australian Open earlier this year and Zverev blew a two sets to one lead and lost in five sets.
Event Notes
The 19th edition of the China Open takes place at the National Tennis Center in Beijing, China and runs from October 2 to October 8. Wildcards into this event are Juan Martin del Potro, Wu Di and Zhang Ze. Four players withdrew from this event before it began. David Ferrer was replaced by Leonardo Mayer, Philipp Kohlschreiber was replaced by Andrey Rublev, Andy Murray was replaced by Jared Donaldson and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga was replaced by Jan-Lennard Struff.
Novak Djokovic has won six of the last eight in China. Nadal won this event in 2005.
Tennis Picks
The draw definitely favors Zverev, while Nadal has a tougher path to the final. I also think there is very little value on Nadal while Zverev has some value at odds of +600. I will go with Zverev as my top choice.
Tennis Odds at Bookmaker.eu
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