Roger Federer is the top seed and the odds-on favorite to win the Swiss Indoors Basel, which begins on Monday. Federer is gaining ground on Rafael Nadal in the race for the No. 1 ranking and he should pick up more points this week, as Nadal withdrew from this event. The top challengers to Federer in Switzerland are expected to be defending champion Marin Cilic, David Goffin and Martin del Potro. Let’s look at the event, odds and picks.
Swiss Indoors Odds
Roger Federer -120
Juan Martin Del Potro +600
Marin Cilic +650
David Goffin +1200
Roberto Bautista Agut +1400
Adrian Mannarino +3300
Jack Sock +3300
Alexandr Dolgopolov +3300
Mischa Zverev +4000
Yuichi Sugita +4000
Denis Shapovalov +4000
Jared Donaldson +4000
Fernando Verdasco +5000
Steve Johnson +5000
Benoit Paire +6600
Robin Haase +6600
Ryan Harrison +6600
Borna Coric +6600
Hyeon Chung +6600
Aljaz Bedene +6600
Leonardo Mayer +6600
Donald Young +8000
Henri Laaksonen +8000
Frances Tiafoe +10000
Joao Sousa +10000
Paolo Lorenzi +10000
Ruben Bemelmans +12500
Marco Chiudinelli +12500
Top Contenders
This event should be all about Federer, as he is the clear top choice at odds of -120. Federer has dominated this event through the years, winning it seven times. He has also finished second a total of five times. If Federer is going to get a challenge it might come from Cilic who is the defending champion or from del Potro. Federer is the top seed and Cilic is the second seed, so if form holds they will meet in the final.
Seeds
- Roger Federer
- Marin Cilic
- David Goffin
- Juan Martin del Potro
- Jack Sock
- Roberto Bautista Agut
- Adrian Mannarino
- Mischa Zverev
Matchups to Watch
The most interesting first round matchup could be the one between Benoit Paire and Steve Johnson, as the winner is likely going to face Federer in the second round. Johnson beat Paire in their only previous meeting in 2014, winning 6-4, 6-1.
In the round of 16 it should be Cilic taking on Borna Coric. These two have met four times previously, with Cilic winning all four meetings but the last two have not been easy. Cilic won 6-1, 2-6, 6-4 in Rotterdam earlier this year and he won 6-3, 2-6, 6-3 in Acapulco.
The best of the quarterfinal matchups could have Bautista Agut taking on del Potro. These two have met three times previously with del Potro winning two of the three matches.
The likely semifinal matchups would have Federer taking on Goffin, while del Potro goes against Cilic. Federer has won all five previous matchups against Goffin, while del Potro has won 9 of the previous 11 matchups against Cilic.
The final could have Federer against del Potro or Cilic. Federer has won 17 of the previous 23 matches against del Potro, including four of the last five, while Federer has dominated Cilic, winning 7 of their 8 meetings.
Event Notes
Cilic won last year’s final, beating Kei Nishikori 6-1,7-6. Federer won in 2014 and in 2015, del Potro won in 2012 and 2013, while Federer won in 2010 and in 2011. Federer played in the final every year from 2006-2015, winning the title seven times.
Tennis Picks
There is no question that Federer is a deserving favorite, as I don’t see anyone challenging him until the final. Federer is listed at odds-on to win this event but it is hard to argue. If anyone is to beat him it might be del Potro, as he has at least shown he can play with Federer, beating him six times, including twice in the final of this tournament. I think del Potro has some value at odds of +600 and I also think he could be a good choice in the semifinals against Cilic, as he has beaten Cilic 9 times in 11 previous meetings.
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