With the US Open in the rear view mirror, the women head to Tokyo for the Japan Women’s Open which runs from Monday, September 11 through Sunday, 17. Elise Mertens is a lukewarm favorite to win this event at odds of +750, while four players are listed at +850 including top seed Kristina Mladenovic who is the highest ranked player in the field at No. 13 in the world. Let’s look at this event, tennis odds and tennis picks.
Odds to Win Japan Women’s Open
Elise Mertens +750
Kristina Mladenovic +850
Kristyna Pliskova +850
Naomi Osaka +850
Shuai Zhang +850
Samantha Stosur +950
Qiang Wang +1250
Aleksandra Krunic +1450
Alison Riske +1450
Christina Mchale +1650
Madga Linette +2050
Jana Cepelova +2550
Yulia Putintseva +2550
Risa Ozaki +2850
Ying-Ying Duan +2850
Aliaksandra Sasnovich +3350
Evgeniya Rodina +3350
Madison Brengle +3350
Misaki Doi +3350
Richel Hogenkamp +3350
Su-Wei Hsieh +3350
Kurumi Nara +4050
Nao Hibino +5050
Sara Sorribes Tormo +5050
Xinyun Han +5050
Kai-Chen Chang +6650
Misa Eguchi +6650
Kimiko Date Krumm +10000
Top Contenders
The betting odds and the seeds for this event do not coincide, as Mertens is the betting favorite but she is the No. 3 seed in this tournament. Mladenovic is the top seed, while Shuai Zhang is the No. 2 seed. There is definitely legitimate concern about Mladenovic, as she was bounced out of the US Open in the first round. If she was playing well she would be a clear standout for this event in Tokyo, but she is not.
Seeds
- Kristina Mladenovic
- Shuai Zhang
- Elise Mertens
- Kristyna Pliskova
- Samantha Stosur
- Naomi Osaka
- Alison Riske
- Yulia Putintseva
Matchups to Watch
There are some interesting matchups to keep an eye on in this event that will be worth watching. Even though Mladenovic is not playing well she gets to play a qualifier in the first round and she has an easy second round match as well. She has an easy path to the quarterfinals. You might be able to make a case for Pliskova or Osaka in the top half of the draw if Mladenovic is completely out of sorts. The problem with taking either of those two players is their ranking, as Pliskova is ranked No. 40 in the world, while Osaka is ranked No. 45. Osaka will have the crowd backing her and she is the highest ranked female player in the world from Japan but she really isn’t in the league of Mladenovic if Mladenovic is playing anywhere near her best.
The bottom half of the draw has a lot more intrigue, as Mertens has to get past either Stosur, who has won this event three times, or defending champion McHale to reach the quarterfinals and then she has to get past Zhang to reach the final.
Event Notes
This WTA event is played on outdoor hard courts at the Ariake Tennis Forest Park in Tokyo, Japan and will run from September 11 through September 17. The event was held as a women’s only event for the first time in 2009. Stosur holds the record for most titles in this event with three, as she won in 2009, 2013 and 2014. Yanina Wickmayer won in 2015, while Cristina McHale won last year.
Tennis Picks
The big question in this event is the health of Mladenovic. She suffered a knee injury at Wimbledon and has never been the same since. She was awful in US Open tune-ups and then was worthless at the US Open. She said that her injury was not the reason she lost at the US Open and that she is confident she has gotten past the injury. If what she said is true she has a ton of value at odds of +850, as this field in Tokyo is very weak. Even if she plays at less than 100% she has an extremely easy draw. I think she reaches the final and if she is anywhere close to full strength she should win the title.
Picking another player to beat her is tougher because the bottom half of the draw is where the likely challenger would come from, but there are four players who could come out of the bottom half. I would lean toward Zhang in the bottom half and she could be worth taking in her matchups.
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