On the eve of the second week of the MLB postseason, we have seen the Chicago Cubs, Oakland Athletics and Colorado Rockies all eliminated from the postseason, leaving just seven teams with any chance of World Series glory.
The Cubs losing in the NL Wild Card game came as a bit of a shock. At the start of the postseason, only the Los Angeles Dodgers were heavier favorites on the National League side win the World Series, showing anything is possible in October baseball.
Of the teams that are left, we have a few familiar faces in the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, Los Angeles Dodgers and Houston Astros, but there are also a few surprise teams like the Milwaukee Brewers—who’ve seen their odds improve dramatically over the last week—along with the Cleveland Indians and Atlanta Braves, though both are holding on by the skin of their teeth.
While odds for teams like the Brewers are not nearly as lucrative as they were earlier in the season or even at the start of the postseason, there is still some good bets that could pay off big time. If you’re looking to get some MLB futures action, look no further than BookMaker.eu.
2018 MLB World Series Betting Odds at BookMaker:
Houston Astros +240
Los Angeles Dodgers +345
Milwaukee Brewers +375
Boston Red Sox +485
New York Yankees +530
Atlanta Braves +2750
Cleveland Indians +3500
ODDS ANALYSIS
The A’s and Rockies falling out of the World Series picture isn’t that big of a surprise, the two teams sported two of the three worst odds coming into the playoffs with the Brewers sandwiched in the middle.
The Brewers’ odds have improved dramatically with a three-game sweep of the Rockies and a trip to the National League Championship Series. That leaves them one step away from the World Series.
In terms of the odds, the Brewers have jumped from massive underdogs to one of the favorites behind the two World Series teams last year: the Astros and the Dodgers.
Houston is unsurprisingly the favorites at this point in the postseason. They and the Red Sox were favored going into the playoffs. Houston has been amazing in their first two games against the Indians, shutting down a good offense and managing to score against the Tribe’s best starters. The Sox, on the other hand, have fallen a bit given their series with the Yankees.
The Sox and Yankees are beating up on each other a bit and will, by all appearances to date, have a much harder fought road to the ALCS, likely putting them at a bit of a disadvantage against the Astros once either team gets there.
It would seem the AL is the most likely league to win the World Series, but getting there for any team other than Houston seems to be a more difficult road than for an NL team, leaving the Dodgers and Brewers with more favorable odds to get to—and consequently win—the Fall Classic than either Boston or New York.
Of course, beyond the rivals in the northeast, the Braves and Indians are both still technically alive in the race for the World Series title, but each have a rather steep hill to climb to get back in their current series as they each face their league’s reigning pennant winners. Their odds reflect that.
In a five-game series, three wins is all a team needs and things can flip quickly, especially with a change of venue. We did see the Braves win Game 3. Still, the Dodgers and Astros are amongst the favorites and seemingly have both series well in hand.
QUICK PICK
The Brewers have quickly gone form a good long-shot value pick to a chalkier answer. Still, they’re a good bet given their odds and their path to at least make it to the World Series.
Milwaukee is the only team guaranteed a championship series appearance at this point. Their pitching staff is centered on the bullpen which presents a problem, but the team will have a couple days off now, allowing that pen plenty of time to get well-rested.
Save for Jhoulys Chacin, the Brewers don’t have a starting pitcher they seem to trust for more than a few innings at a time. That’s worrisome to Milwaukee’s chances of World Series glory, but this bullpen is deep and they’re performing well. It’s an extreme version of the strategy the Kansas City Royals deployed during their hay day, but this is a different era in baseball and it just might work.
Besides, when it comes to winning in October, it’s more important to be hot than it is to be good. The Brewers are both.
While the Brew Crew’s rotation seems lackluster, they performed in the regular season and the Brewers ended the season with more wins than any other NL team.
They have also won 11-straight games going back to the regular season, including beating the Cubs in a play-in game and sweeping the Rockies in their NLDS showdown.
Aside from the Brewers, the Astros—of course—are a good bet. They’re the favorites so it’s not rocket science, but they’re the favorites for a reason. They’ve blowing by the Indians so far and they have a better team on paper than the one that won it all last year. History tells us it’s unlikely to have a back-to-back World Series champion, but not impossible. The Yankees were the last to do it in 2000. Houston certainly has all the elements to follow suit.
For a longer shot pick, the same team that last won back-to-back series suddenly becomes a longer shot option. The Yankees split the first two games of the ALDS with the Red Sox, but they battled in their loss and have certainly looked like the better team so far. With J.A. Happ, Luis Severino, Masahiro Tanaka and C.C. Sabathia, the rotation is underrated. The lineup is a bit too strikeout prone to trust fully, but the power is otherworldly.
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