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We have reached mid-April. Conventional wisdom says not to take too much stock in what the standings say until Memorial Day, but we now have about a tenth of the season under our belts. It remains too early to stray too far from what we expected at the onset of the season, but we have certainly seen some red flags from a few of the early season favorites. While some of the bigger underdogs, such as the Tampa Bay Rays, San Diego Padres, and Seattle Mariners, have given us some reason to be optimistic in the early going.
We’ve seen some significant movement on the odds for the aforementioned teams while bettors and odds makers alike have started to fade the big boys of the AL East. Some of the early underperforming clubs still seem likely to reach October making now a good time to jump while the odds are a bit more favorable.
As the season continues along, you can bet on all the latest MLB odds and props—including all the World Series odds—anytime at BookMaker.eu.
WORLD SERIES ODDS
Arizona Diamondbacks +12000
Atlanta Braves +2850
Baltimore Orioles +100000
Boston Red Sox +850
Chicago Cubs +2000
Chicago White Sox +36500
Cincinnati Reds +16500
Cleveland Indians +1350
Colorado Rockies +10000
Detroit Tigers +21000
Houston Astros +510
Kansas City Royals +45000
Los Angeles Angels +7000
Los Angeles Dodgers +625
Miami Marlins +120000
Milwaukee Brewers +1600
Minnesota Twins +3500
New York Mets +1550
New York Yankees +725
Oakland Athletics +7500
Philadelphia Phillies +965
Pittsburgh Pirates +10000
St. Louis Cardinals +1450
San Diego Padres +6000
San Francisco Giants +24000
Seattle Mariners +3750
Tampa Bay Rays +1300
Texas Rangers +24500
Toronto Blue Jays +50000
Washington Nationals +1275
ODDS BREAKDOWN
The baseball season is full of ups and downs which is why, for the most part, the odds on opening day and the odds here a couple weeks later are similar even with teams like the Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees, and Chicago Cubs sitting under-.500 while the Seattle Mariners, Tampa Bay Rays and San Diego Padres surprisingly sit atop their respective divisions.
The play of the Rays, Mariners and Padres have caused their odds to improve greatly, but the Yankees and Red Sox still have better odds than the Rays. The Houston Astros are still the odds-on favorites to win the World Series. And the Los Angeles Dodgers still have the best odds to win the title of any team in the National League, let alone the NL West.
It’s still expected that the American League is a league of haves and have-nots with few in the middle. The Rays and Mariners have elevated themselves into the conversation with teams like the Astros, Yankees, Red Sox and Cleveland Indians. The Minnesota Twins are in that conversation as well, but very few other teams are there. Seattle’s seen the most movement in its odds and it makes sense. A 13-2 start was impossible to ignore. It was the best start in franchise history. Though with the Mariners having lost three straight, the luster is wearing off and the warts in the pitching staff are becoming more pronounced.
The National League, of course, is much more wide open than the junior circuit. The NL East has already shown itself to be a bit of a blood bath. The Miami Marlins have gotten off to a miserable start as expected, but the rest of the division all are within two games at this early stage and that should hold throughout the season. Given how tight the division will be, whoever comes out of it should be battle tested for the playoffs, but nabbing a playoff spot will be more difficult and you can’t win the World Series if you don’t get to October. For that reason, the odds for teams in the NL East are going to be a bit more conservative though the Philadelphia Phillies still have the high off signing Bryce Harper that’ve elevated them to the national conversation. That’s given them the second best odds in the NL, but they’ll be neck-and-neck with the rest of the NL East all of whom have more favorable odds for bettors.
Perhaps the biggest surprise of the early season—outside of the Mariners’ start—is in the NL Central where the Cubs have been bad and sit in the division cellar. Chicago limped to the finish line in 2018 and have been limping out of the gate in 2019. The bullpen has looked terrible and there are now whispers regarding Joe Maddon’s job security. Boy have the mighty fallen.
Chicago does still have a positive run differential, but that bullpen is a mess and the rotation isn’t doing it any favors either. More concerning for their long-term odds this year is the fact the team seemed completely financial hamstrung in the offseason, leading to an unlikelihood they’ll be able to get sufficient help come July.
INTERESTING LONGSHOTS
The Mariners have been a popular pick after their hot start, but their latest three-game losing streak is concerning. It’ll be worth seeing if they can bounce back from that before they can be considered a good longshot pick given their much improved odds. Their odds at +3750 still make them a longshot, but less of a value.
The Padres haven’t gotten quite as big of a boost with odds at +6000, but their 11-6 start is almost as impressive. Their -3 run differential, however, is a red flag as that’s hard to sustain over a full season, just ask the Mariners of last year who got off to a similarly hot start, defying their run differential, but eventually fell off down the stretch and out of contention. It is fun to jump on the early success of some major underdogs, but over a 162-game season things will even out, bad teams will have good stretches and good teams will look bad for weeks at a time.
Of the hot starts, the Rays are the most interesting. They’ve got an uphill battle in a division with the Yankees and Red Sox, but the second wildcard could be their ticket with four teams sticking out as likely contenders and one potential playoff opening up for grabs.
The Rays showed they could exceed expectations last year. They pitched well despite utilizing the opener often and won 90-games. On paper, the 2019 team is better. Of course, as the more sustainable of the early season surprises, their odds have elevated them out of longshot territory at +1300, better than teams like the St. Louis Cardinals, Milwaukee Brewers and Cleveland Indians.
Looking at the longer odds at the moment, a couple teams worth watching and potentially throwing some smaller bets on in hopes of hitting the lottery are the Oakland Athletics, Atlanta Braves and Minnesota Twins.
The A’s made the playoffs last year and surprised a ton of people. They’re off to a 10-9 start, but have a +15 run differential, third in the league behind Seattle and Tampa Bay. Oakland’s starting rotation is the big question mark, but that was the case last year too and they should that Bob Melvin and company can navigate that and find innings.
As for the Braves and Twins, these two have a legitimate shot at their respective divisions. As noted before, the NL East is up for grabs between four teams and Atlanta has the worst odds despite having won the division last year. They added Josh Donaldson to the mix and now have more experience in the pitching staff with some top young prospects ready to make a splash as well.
Donaldson hasn’t hit yet, but he has a track record and is a former MVP. And, while it’s hard to trust young, unproven talent, the Braves have enough of it that they don’t need everyone to success, just to find a couple quality arms in a plethora of them.
The Twins, meanwhile, sit atop the AL Central and could challenge an offensively inept Indians team. Minnesota’s pitching staff is underrated and their young talent took a step back last year. A return to form from 2017 would put them right there with the Tribe.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
The Yankees’ injuries are piling up. It would be easy to say that if they can weather the storm and get everyone back, they’d be the team to beat with a well-rested, full team down the stretch, but Luis Severino is key and he’s already seen the timeline for his return pushed back. Miguel Andujar may be out all year. There are legitimate concerns here. Still, this is a deep team and should still be considered a good bet, particularly with the odds now making them a better value.
The Red Sox could also be a good “buy low” option at the moment, but their pitching is concerning. Chris Sale will be better, but he’s lost velocity. Nathan Eovaldi has looked bad and Rick Porcello and Eduardo Rodriguez have questions around them, too. That doesn’t even call into a question a bullpen that needed reinforcements from the rotation in the playoffs last year and has sense lost two of its better arms in Joe Kelly and Craig Kimbrel.
In the AL, the Astros look like the best bets of the chalk picks. Houston has bounced back from an opening series loss to the Rays and several of the offensive pieces are starting to come around. And while the Dodgers have been up-and-down, they’re a good pick on the other side to represent the NL.
If you’re looking for a bit more value, take a gander at the St. Louis Cardinals. They had a slow start, but are now 9-6 after going 7-3 in their last ten games. They’ve got the second best run differential in the NL—to the Dodgers—and seem to be a complete team with no glaring holes on the roster.
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