The Boston Red Sox and Houston Astros meet up on Saturday night for the middle game of a three game series. This series is a rematch of sorts for these two clubs as it marks their first meeting since the Sox sent the Astros home in the ALCS. Both Boston and Houston come into the series—and this game—playing excellent baseball. It should go a good contest.
First pitch for the game between the Astros and Red Sox is scheduled for Saturday, May 18, 2019, at 7:15 p.m. ET at Fenway Park. The matchup will be shown on FOX.
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Odds Analysis
These teams haven’t met this year, but Boston won the ALCS last year in five games. Houston took four of seven from the Sox in the regular season.
Coming into play, these are the hottest teams in the league. Houston is cruising, winning seven straight and 10 of their last 11 games. They also have a staggering +83 run differential, the best in baseball by a miles.
Boston’s differential is just +26 after a slow start, but they’ve gone from an 11-17 record to a 22-20 mark with an 11-3 run over the last couple weeks.
The offenses are both mashing right now. Houston and Boston rank first and second, respectively, in runs scored here in May. Houston has a seven-run edge, but has also played an extra game.
Overall, the Astros lead baseball in runs scored with 240 and OPS at a staggering .868. Boston is fourth in runs scored and has a .763 OPS.
Right now, Houston is rolling without Jose Altuve though Aledmys Diaz has a .815 OPS filling in with five dingers. George Springer is hitting the cover off the ball. He has 16 home runs and 39 RBIs to go with a .329/.410/.671 slash line. He’s tops in the AL in many offensive categories. Meanwhile, Carlos Correa looks like his old self with a .949 OPS. Alex Bregman has a .955 OPS and 13 homers. Even Michael Brantley is getting into the home run game. He has 10, but is better known for just putting up quality at bats.
In Boston, Rafael Devers, Christian Vazquez, Mitch Moreland, Michael Chavis, and J.D. Martinez are all raking through the first half of May with Chavis’s .953 OPS the lowest of the bunch.
Chavis has been a huge sparkplug since getting promoted and has helped eliminate a major hole at second base. He’s not a great defender there, but his seven homers, 20 RBIs and .999 OPS have helped lengthen the order an minimize the impact of Jackie Bradley Jr.’s poor offensive season in centerfield.
Probable Pitchers
The starting pitching situation is a bit up-in-the-air for this one. For the Astros, they recent sent Collin McHugh to the bullpen in favor of rookie right-hander Corbin Martin. He figures to get his second start. As for the Red Sox, David Price could come off the IL to make the start, but a lot will depend on his bullpen session on Wednesday and how he responds in the following days. If he cannot go, Hector Velazquez would be the presumed fill-in.
In his Major League debut, Martin threw 80 pitches in 5.1 innings. A.J. Hinch got him out early, but he was cruising against a good hitting Rangers team, allowing just two runs on three hits and a walk. He struck out nine batters.
The 23-year old will have an even bigger test on Saturday against the Red Sox in Fenway, but he’s a top prospect with great stuff with a sinker, curve, change up mix.
Coming into the year, Martin had climbed some prospect rankings and sat in the pre-season top-100 for both Baseball America and MLB Pipeline.
In the PCL this season, he flat out dominated, pitching to a 1.48 ERA in five games over 24.1 innings, recording 28 strikeouts and pitching to a 1.027 WHIP. His walks were up a bit, but it was a small sample size and the righty had shown plus command in this first two minor league seasons.
Overall, he is 10-4 with a 2.31 ERA and 0.989 WHIP in 179 innings during his minor league career, including going 7-2 with a 2.97 ERA in 21 games at Double-A a season ago.
On the other side, Price would seem to have the edge over Martin due to experience if he gets the go-ahead after his bullpen session though he could be a bit rusty.
So far this year, he’s made six starts and is just 1-2, but does have a 3.75 ERA and 1.139 WHIP in his 36 innings of work. He’s posted a 3.41 FIP while recording 42 strikeouts to just 10 walks.
Price has been on the IL with elbow tendinitis which is concerning. It’ll be worth watching how sharp his pitches are if he does, indeed, get the chance to start. If he does, he’s 6-2 with a 2.94 ERA in his career against Houston.
As for the other option, Velazquez is the swing man. He’s made six starts and six relief appearances with a 3.95 ERA and 1.280 WHIP in 27.1 innings. He’s got a higher walk rate and lower strikeout rate than Price, but generally keeps the ball in the yard.
In his six starts this year, he’s 1-2 with a 4.19 ERA in 19.1 innings, but he’s got a lower WHIP than he does as a reliever.
Live Betting
It’s hard to beat the Houston bullpen. The starting pitching has taken a step back from last year, but the pen for the Astros is the best in the game with a 2.88 ERA in 128 innings of work. The unit is holding the opposition to a meager .202 batting average.
Roberto Osuna has locked down the ninth inning while Ryan Pressly essentially makes this a seven-inning game. Osuna has allowed just a single run on five hits and one walk in 17.1 innings. He’s not getting a ton of swing and miss—though he does have 15 strikeouts—but he’s inducing weak contact and getting outs. He also has 10 saves.
As for Pressly, the former Twin has yet to allow a run in 18 innings of work. He’s not walked a single batter and has 18 strikeouts with only nine hits. That’s a 0.500 WHIP and 0.00 ERA. His FIP sits at 1.11, just a bit better than Osuna’s.
As good as Osuna and Pressly have been, it’s not just the back of the pen getting the job done. Will Harris has a 1.32 ERA in 13.2 innings. Hector Rondon—the team’s closer for most of last year—has a 2.03 ERA in 13.1 innings.
The Sox just don’t quite matchup in the bullpen. They let Craig Kimbrel and Joe Kelly walk in the offseason and replaced them internally, pushing Matt Barnes and Ryan Braiser, amongst others, in more meaningful innings.
Overall, Boston has a 3.98 ERA in the pen, ranking in the top-10 in the sport, but it’s not quite as good as Houston.
Braiser has been good while Barnes has a 1.56 ERA in 17.1 innings and Marcu Walden has stepped up with 22.1 huge innings, allowing just six runs. There are pieces here, but the Astros have the edge.
MLB Pick
The Red Sox bats and starting pitching are rounding into form, but with questions of who will start in this game, the pitching swings in Houston’s favor; even with a rookie getting the start.
Look for Price of Vazquez to pitch reasonably well and count on a solid—if unspectacular—second start from Martin, but this may come down to the bullpens.
The offenses for both of these teams will push across a few runs. They’re too good and too deep in talent not to score, but this game could go down to the wire and the Astros’ bullpen is more reliable.
While guys like Walden, Barnes, and Brasier have looked good, Osuna and Pressly have been basically unhittable.
Look for the road team to come out ahead. Take the Astros at BookMaker.eu.
MLB Odds: Astros 7, Red Sox 5
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