Both winning fewer than 40-percent of their games and ranking at the bottom of their respective divisions, the Texas Rangers will host the Kansas City Royals in the third game of a four-game series on Saturday. This matchup will, surprisingly, be broadcast nationally despite the futility of the two teams, giving the nation another chance to see the ageless wonder, Bartolo Colon, on the mound for the Rangers. He’ll be opposed by Ian Kennedy for the Royals.
First pitch for the game between the Royals and Rangers is scheduled for Saturday May 26, 2018, at 4:05 p.m. ET at Globe Life Park in Arlington. The matchup will be shown on Fox Sports 1.
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Odds Analysis
This is one of those games were something has to give. Someone has to get the win.
Heading into the series with the Royals, the Rangers were just 9-17 at home while the Royals were 9-15 on the road.
While both teams have been terrible, there have been a couple bright spots for each. The Rangers, in particular, have started to see the offense pick things up. Even with Adrian Beltre and Elvis Andrus on the DL, Texas ranks fifth in baseball in runs scored in May with 102. They’re hitting just .217 as a team with a .685 OPS. They’ve hit 28 homers which is reasonable, but doesn’t explain the success. It’s a bit of a fluke, but it’s working.
Ronald Guzman is starting to find his footing at first base and has put together a few good at bats recently though he’s still hitting just .218.
Nomar Mazara just slammed his 11th home run on Wednesday, improving his slash line to .274/.340/.505. He’s the team’s most complete hitter right now.
Other than Mazara, the rest of the lineup is very limited. Joey Gallo has pop. Delino DeShields Jr. has speed. Still, Mazara is the only healthy regular with an OPS+ north of Shin-Soo Choo’s 98.
Fortunately for the Rangers, the Royals’ offense is just as barren. They’ve scored fewer runs this year than Texas, particularly over the last month.
Mike Moustakas still has strong numbers, but has regressed after a hot start. Whit Merrifield is a good piece with a .352 OBP and 12 steals, but is limited on the power. Jorge Soler is the Mazara of the Royals. He’s hitting .288 with a .389 OBP and .468 slugging percentage. He’s hit fewer homers than Mazara, but does have 13 doubles.
Probable Pitchers
At 33-years old, Ian Kennedy qualifies as a grizzled veteran, but compared to Bartolo Colon, who just turned 45, he’s still just a spring chicken.
The fact Colon continues to find success in the Majors is astonishing. He’s 2-2 with a 3.51 ERA in 10 games—including eight starts—spanning 5.1 innings. That’s a 129 ERA+. He’s got a WHIP of 0.923 and was just five walks allowed all season.
A different pitcher than he was in his youth, Colon continues to get the job done primarily due to his control. He puts the fastball over the plate with pinpoint accuracy and forces the opponent to put the ball in play. The often do as he’s struck out only 36 batters, but more often than not, it’s soft contact at someone.
Colon needs the defense behind him which is an issue for the Rangers who have made more errors in the field than any other team.
Because of that, Colon is vulnerable at times. Always being in the zone, he’s also susceptible to the long ball. He’s good at hitting his spots, but when he misses, he often misses in the zone.
That happened in his last start where he allowed six runs in 5.1 innings on four home runs. He’s already allowed 13 home runs leading to a 5.20 FIP, well above his ERA.
While Colon will try and bounce back from a rough outing, Kennedy will try and do the same. The Royals’ right-hander allowed five runs in 5.2 innings against the Cardinals in his last start. It was his third straight start allowing at least five runs. He’s given up 19 runs—including five homers—in his last 15.2 innings of work as his ERA has ballooned form 2.92 on May 4 to 5.30.
Overall, Kennedy is 1-5 with a 5.30 ERA and 1.538 WHIP. He’s 0-2 with a 3.58 ERA in six career starts against Texas. Both of the losses came on the road in Texas.
Live Betting
While both starters are coming off poor outings, Kennedy’s struggles have been a bit more extended, giving the Rangers an edge both on the mound and at the plate.
That advantage on the mound extends to the bullpens where the Rangers boast a better team bullpen ERA than the Royals.
When you break it down, the pens are pretty evenly matched. If the Royals get the lead late, Kansas City is better equipped to close out the game. Kelvin Herrera is pitching very well and Brad Keller has been great. The 22-year old is getting outs and has a 1.77 ERA despite a low strikeout rate. Outside of those two, things get dicey. This team is very vulnerable in the middle innings.
Texas’s pen doesn’t have the sound ninth inning option. Keone Kela is the closer and has 10 saves. He can get swings and misses, but he’s already allowed nine runs and two homers.
Matt Bush is getting back into form, giving the Rangers another good arm, but he, Alex Claudio, Jake Diekman and Tony Barnette all present good options when they’re on, but have had their share of struggles from time-to-time, too.
MLB Pick
While both teams have picked up the offensive production in May, the Rangers have the edge at the plate while also boasting the better bullpen ERA.
The Rangers have home field advantage in the game and while both starters are veterans capable of a good game, but far from a certainty at this stage in their careers, the ageless Bartolo Colon does have the better overall numbers.
With so many signs pointing towards Texas, take the Rangers in this battle of bottom feeders. The only thing that could derail Texas is a dismal defense which has already made 42 errors in 51 games, nearly twice as many as Kansas City.
In the end, look for the Rangers to score enough against Kennedy and plate a few more against the lackluster middle or the Royals’ bullpen. Meanwhile, the Rangers should get enough from Colon and the pen to hold on and pull out a victory.
MLB Odds: Rangers 8, Royals 6
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