The Los Angeles Dodgers’ hitters are rejoicing and the pitchers lamenting as they get set for a weekend series against the Colorado Rockies in the altitude at Coors Field. These two teams are both battling for the top spot in the NL West and the head-to-head play in this three-game set could have a major impact on how the race shapes up. When facing off this year, it’s the Dodgers who hold the slight edge, winning seven of their first 13 meetings.
The first game of the three-game series between the Dodgers and Rockies is scheduled for Friday, September 7, 2018, at 8:40 p.m. ET at Coors Field. Saturday’s game will begin at 8:10 p.m. ET with the Sunday matinee at 3:10 p.m. ET. All three matchups will be televised locally.
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Odds Analysis
Dodgers recently overcame a slump that saw them drop in the NL West standings from first to third. They’ve bounced back nicely since, however. Since being swept by the Cardinals in late August, they’ve gone an impressive 9-2 in their last 11 games.
The Rockies, meanwhile, holding on to flimsy lead in the NL West. They closed out August with a string of losses, but have won four straight to open September.
Typically Rockies are better at home than on the road, though this year that’s not been the case. Colorado’s road record has been slightly better as they’re more than just an offensive team, though they can still hit the ball with the best of them.
The Rockies and Dodgers are within five total runs of each other this season and rank just behind the Cubs in the NL in runs scored. L.A. is second, the Rockies are third. Colorado has the higher average, but the Dodgers draw more walks and have actually hit more homers despite the Rockies clear stadium advantage.
For the Rockies, Trevor Story and Nolan Arenado have both hit eight dingers since the All-Star break to continue their strong seasons. Meanwhile, David Dahl, Carlos Gonzalez, Ryan McMahon and now the recently activated Matt Holiday have had good second halves to date.
Colorado has some great young players, but the Dodgers offense is deeper. Arenado will be the best player on the field for either team, but the Dodgers have Max Muncy and Justin Turner each with an OPS+ over 150. Muncy has hit 31 homers and leads the team, but there are seve different players with at least 19 homers including Manny Machado who has only hit nine in Dodger blue, but had 24 more with the Orioles.
While Colorado has a few matchup options—particularly in the outfield—throughout the series, the Dodgers have more. Players like Muncy, Turner, Machado, Brian Dozier, Chase Utley, Chris Taylor, and Cody Bellinger are all options in the infield while Bellinger, Taylor, Joc Pederson, Enrique Hernandez, Matt Kemp, Alex Verdugo and Andrew Toles are options in the outfield. That doesn’t even mention Yasmani Grandal who has a 116 OPS+, 22 homers and a .342 OBP behind the dish.
Probable Pitchers
Neither team has announced their probable starters for this series, but the Dodgers should line up to send Clayton Kershaw, Walker Buehler and Alex Wood to the hill. If the Rockies stay on rotation, they’d counter with Jon Gray, Kyle Freeland and Tyler Anderson in that order.
A Kershaw versus Gray matchup would pin two Opening Day starters head-to-head. Based on name and overall numbers, it’s a no-brainer who gets the edge.
Kershaw’s dealt with some injury issues limiting him to only 21 starts, but he’s been solid in those outings with a 2.40 ERA and 0.975 WHIP over 131.1 innings. Despite those numbers, however, he’s just 6-5 and the Dodgers are only 11-10 when he takes the ball. Since the start of July, however, the team is 8-3 in his starts with him going 4-1.
Over those 11 starts since the beginning of July, Kershaw has allowed more than two runs in a start only once and has recorded a quality start in all 11.
As for Gray, his season included a short trip to the minors as he struggled early in the year. Overall, he’s 11-7 with a 4.70 ERA and 1.265 WHIP in 153.1 innings spread over 26 starts. His record and the record of the Rockies in his starts is better than Kershaw’s record despite the higher ERA and WHIP. Gray has outpitched both those numbers according to FIP which sits at a respectable 3.59. He’s also been a much more effective pitcher of late, pitching to a 3.33 ERA in eight games in the second half.
Moving on to Saturday’s matchup, the Dodgers will have their rookie phenom against the Rockies’ true ace.
In 19 games, including 18 starts, Buehler has more than lived up to the hype. He’s 6-4 with a 2.92 ERA and 1.022 WHIP. He’s got a 3.11 FIP and has 115 strikeouts in 104.2 innings pitched.
The 24-year old right-hander has faced the Rockies three times this year, allowing just five runs in 19 innings. Most recently, he held Colorado scoreless at Coors Field, giving up just four hits in seven innings back on August 11.
Of course, Freeland owns Coors Field. He’s 7-2 with a 2.27 ERA in 12 starts at home. Overall, he’s amassed 6.5 rWAR with a 13-7 record, 2.96 ERA and 1.245 WHIP in 170.1 innings of work. In the second half, he’s 5-1 with a 2.63 ERA.
Freeland was outdueled by Buehler back on August 11, but pitched a good game himself, going seven innings and allowing two runs in a game the Rockies ultimately won against the Dodger bullpen.
In the series finale pitching matchup on Sunday afternoon, the hurlers will including Wood and Anderson.
Anderson is 6-7 with a 4.80 ERA and 1.289 WHIP while Wood is 8-6 with a 3.37 ERA and 1.178 WHIP. Based on those numbers, Wood is the better pitcher, but ERA+, considering the ballparks, puts these two a bit closer together, but Wood still has the advantage by a reasonable margin. That said, Wood lasted just two innings in his last start against the Rockies, giving up six runs while Anderson went six innings of one-run ball against the Dodgers in August.
Live Betting
The Dodgers’ bullpen ranked much better than the one in Colorado, at least based on ERA, but both units have experienced issues of late, blowing saves opportunities at an alarming rate.
For the Dodgers, the bullpen issues can be traced back to the injury to Kenley Jansen. The Dodgers’ struggled with him on the shelf and have been better with him stabilizing the back end of the bullpen. While that’s encouraging, it’s also alarming for this series as reports indicate Jansen isn’t likely to pitch in Colorado. Given the altitude, the Dodgers appear likely to avoid the closer at all costs as to not risk things given his irregular heartbeat issues.
If Jansen cannot pitch, that puts Dave Roberts in a bit of a pickle with his bullpen which does have Kenta Maeda now, but is still not as strong as it was last year when Roberts could call upon Brandon Morrow in a setup role.
On the other side of this matchup, the Rockies have a 4.96 ERA as a bullpen, ranking fourth worst in the sport. Some of that, of course, is skewed by early season issues, but the pen is still an area of concern with six blown saves over the last 30-days.
Colorado has been getting better production from Wade Davis of late who has converted his last seven save chances, giving up just three runs in 11.1 innings in that span. That’s encouraging, but set up man Adam Ottavino has started to allow a few runs after a filthy start to the year and Jake McGee, Bryan Shaw and the rest of the pen have shown issues, particularly at home, this year.
MLB Pick
The Rockies are a better team on the road than at home this year, but they’ll have a home field advantage by not having to face Jansen.
Los Angeles is playing better baseball coming into this series—or at least were playing better baseball for a longer stretch, but we’ll see how the team reacts to a series without their closer. At least this time, they’ll have an expanded bullpen to help take on some of the load.
On the starting side, the Rockies’ have gotten good starting pitching, but the Dodgers’ group is better overall. Count on Wood to pitch better against the Rockies this time around and both Kershaw and Buehler to look excellent as always. Look for that to be the difference as L.A. takes two of three on the road. The L.A. bullpen, even without Jansen, should have more success in this series than last month as the options are more plentiful for Dave Roberts, particularly with Maeda in the mix.
Offensively, the Dodgers are also much deeper than the Rockies though both have a few All-Stars able to impact the game with a single swing of the bat.
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