The Minnesota Twins are back in the playoffs but will have an uphill battle in this ALDS showdown against the New York Yankees. The Twins last saw the postseason in 2017 when they lost the AL Wild Card game to this Yankee squad. These two teams have plenty of playoff history with the Yankees owning the Twins in October. Can Minnesota get the upset or will the Yankees’ postseason dominance over the Twins continue?
The American League Division Series between the Twins and the Yankees will begin on Thursday, October 3, 2019 at Yankee Stadium. FS1 and MLB Network will share the broadcasting rights for this series.
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Odds Analysis
These two teams met for two series earlier this season with the Yankees winning both series, two games to one.
New York is a sizable favorite in this series despite finishing the regular season just a couple games ahead of Minnesota. The bullpen and the offense are a big part of the Yankees’ game, but the Twins can compete in both those areas. The Yankees also dominate at home with a .706 winning percentage, but the Twins have more than held their own on the road. In fact, Minnesota’s road winning percentage of .679 is 100-points higher than its home percentage of .568.
On paper, the Yankees come out ahead in most areas, but it’s a lot tighter across the board than most believe. Meanwhile, the Twins also come into the postseason playing better baseball. They’re 6-1 in their last seven games and 12-4 in their last 16. New York, on the other hand, has dropped four of their last five.
Probable Pitchers
Both the Yankees and Twins are going to be doing some mix and matching throughout the playoffs with their rotations.
Minnesota has Jose Berrios and Jake Odorizzi as their only set starters. Both could get a couple starts if this series goes five games with Randy Dobnak of all pitchers getting the start in the third game.
Martin Perez, Kyle Gibson, and Michael Pineda joined Berrios and Odorizzi in the rotation most of the year, but Perez and Gibson have not been throwing well. Pineda, meanwhile, would have been the No.3 starter if not for a PED suspension causing him to be ineligible for the postseason.
Given the situation, that puts a lot of pressure on Berrios and Odorizzi. The Twins need both to pitch up to their potential.
Both starters were All-Stars this season. Berrios wrapped up the season going 14-8 with a 3.68 ERA and 1.223 WHIP in 200.1 innings. Odorizzi finished with just 159 innings, going just five or six innings a start, but had a 3.51 ERA and 1.208 WHIP to go with a 15-7 record. Both had their FIP in line with their ERA.
The 25-year old Berrios is the ace of the staff despite a slightly higher ERA and should start Game 1. He had a 2.80 ERA through July and the better stuff, but he’s struggled a bit the last two months of the season. While that is a concern, he did finish well, holding the Royals to two-runs in six innings in his final start of the year. That was his third quality start in his last four games.
Odorizzi finishes the season having done well down the stretch. The Twins were 4-1 in his last five starts, though the right-hander has been nursing a sore hamstring. That’s not expected to impact him against the Yankees.
Speaking of the Yankees, Odorizzi struggled against them earlier this season, allowing nine runs in just four innings when he pitched against them back in July.
It’s a bit of a surprise that Dobnak lines up as the No.3 starter. The 24-year old rookie right-hander has made just nine big league appearances and five starts, totaling 28.1 innings pitched. He could serve in more of an opener role against the Yankees, but pitched well in his limited work, owning a 1.59 ERA and 2.90 FIP. He’ snot been a big strikeout pitcher but has limited the walks and shown excellent command in and out of the zone, giving up just one home run.
The Yankees haven’t established the order of their starters for this series but should send James Paxton and Masahiro Tanaka to the hill in the first two games with Luis Severino going in Game 3. New York also has the luxury of a few more options with J.A. Happ with maybe Chad Green serving as an opener ahead of him in Game 4 depending on the first three games.
Paxton has had a nice season, but Odorizzi has outpitched Tanaka this season. Meanwhile, Severino is more proven in the Majors, but has thrown fewer innings than Dobnak. And while Green has thrown well in the opener role, Happ ended the season with a 4.91 ERA and 5.22 FIP, not exactly encouraging.
Digging a bit deeper comes int play with a 15-6 record and 3.82 ERA. His WHIP is a bit inflated, but a strong strikeout rate helps keep his FIP in check at 3.86.
Paxton faced the Twins in early May and lasted just three innings. He pitched well, however, but came out with an injury that cost him most of a month.
The southpaw also left his last start with a pulled muscle, but it was more precautionary with the playoffs coming up. He’ll be good to go for Thursday. After all, he went into his last start throwing 24.2 innings over his previous four games and allowing just two runs, on earned.
As for Tanaka, he was an All-Star, but ended the season with a 4.45 ERA. He was 11-9 this year with a 1.242 WHIP but pitched to a 5.26 ERA in the second half.
There is reason to be concerned about Tanaka, but he has a 1.50 postseason ERA in five starts. Most of that came in 2017 when he was coming off an even higher in-season ERA. Tanaka is also in line to start at home where he has a 3.10 ERA in 16 games. He has a 6.05 ERA on the road.
The last starter to consider is Severino. He has just three starts and 12 innings this season, sitting out nearly the whole year with an injury. In those 12 innings, he has 17 strikeouts and just six hits. He has not allowed a home run. Command is a bit of an issue as you would expect given the limited innings, but he has two scoreless appearances in his three starts with the one exception—his last one—being a three-inning outing where he allowed two runs and walked four.
Overall, this is an interesting matchup of rotations with serious questions. Postseason experience and depth, however, give the nod to the Yankees.
Bullpen Breakdown
The Yankees’ bullpen was lauded at the start of the season. With Aroldis Chapman, Adam Ottavino, and Zack Britton, it’s easy to see why. That’s quite a bit of strength at the back end and that trio can shorten games to six innings, but overall, the Yankees’ bullpen posted a 4.08 ERA, ranking fifth in the AL. The Twins rank sixth at 4.17.
The Yankees’ trio in the back-end are elite and will play up in the postseason where there are enough built in off days to allow all three to pitch most days. In the ninth, Chapman has a 2.21 ERA, 37 saves and a 13.4 K:9 ratio. He’s also been brilliant at limiting home runs. He’s also loaded with postseason experience, including as an instrumental part of the Cubs’ World Series title in 2016.
As for Ottavino and Britton, they’re entirely different pitchers. Ottavino is a huge strikeout guys like Chapman while Britton is a sinker-baller thriving on getting the opponent to pound it into the ground. Both, however, do have inflated walk rates leading to FIPs in the mid-3s despite Ottavino and Britton having an ERA of 1.90 and 1.91, respectively.
Beyond those three, the quality of arm dips a bit for the Yankees, but Tommy Kahnle, Chad Green, and Luis Cessa amongst others still give Aaron Boone some options.
As for the Twins, they don’t have the big names like Chapman, Britton and Ottavino, but Taylor Rogers has been great in the closer’s role since taking over the spot earlier this year. He’s got a 2.61 ERA and 30 saves. He, Trevor May, and Tyler Duffey all have strong strikeout numbers, and fewer walks than the Yankees’ trio.
In addition to them, Sergio Romo was a nice midseason addition. The veteran right-hander is great against righty hitters of which the Yankees have a ton. He could be a huge matchup guy in this series.
Offensive Comparison
These are the two best offenses in baseball by the numbers. The Twins hit the most home runs in the game with 307. New York slammed 306. The Yankees scored the most runs on the year with 943, but Minnesota was four behind at 939.
There should be a lot of power on display in this series. The Twins have the ageless Nelson Cruz leading the team in homers with 41. He’s also driven in 108 and has a 1.031 OPS but is not alone. Max Kepler, Eddie Rosario, Miguel Sano and Mitch Garver have all hit at last 30 homers. The team also has three others with at least 20. Up and down the order, anyone can go yard.
Kepler and Marwin Gonzalez are dealing with injuries. Both should be available for the series, but the Twins need both at full strength.
Rocco Baldelli is a new-school manager who will play the numbers and put his hitters in the best possible position. He’s got a lot of power at his disposal and has the firepower to keep up with New York should it get into a slugfest.
New York has all the names just like in the bullpen. Edwin Encarnacion, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Gleybar Torres, Gary Sanchez, D.J. LeMahieu and the list just keeps going. That’s intimidating for the Twins pitchers, much like their lineup, there are no breaks in the Yankees’ order.
MLB Pick
The Yankees are just a bit better than the Twins across the board and that should get them to the ALCS. Look for the Twins to put up a fight in each game and for several close ones, but the Yankees’ rotation and bullpen are just a bit more reliable and proven, particularly in the playoffs.
Minnesota should be able to steal a game at home and maybe one on the road, but ultimately the Yankees are just a bit too strong.
Look for Tanaka to up his game as he’s done in postseasons past while Severino and Paxton both do their part to get the ball to the bullpen with the lead.
We should see some fireworks from both sides given the strong offenses at play and there could be some back-and-forth games going down to the wire. The big three at the back for New York could be the difference maker.
Take New York over the Twins in four games.
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