The New York Yankees were the first team to clinch a ticket to the Championship Series, but the Houston Astros will have homefield advantage after winning more games in the regular season. These two super teams are now set to battle it out in the ALCS for the chance to go to the World Series. Will the Astros return to the Fall Classic for the second time in three seasons or will New York upset Houston? Either way, this should be an epic showdown between two teams with a ton of power and plenty of intriguing storylines.
The American League Championship Series between the Yankees and Astros will begin on Saturday, October 12, 2019 at Minute Maid Park. FOX will broadcast each game of this series either on FOX or FS1.
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Odds Analysis
The Yankees limped to the finish line in the regular season, dropping four of their final five games, all on the road. Despite that, the Bronx Bombers came out strong in the ALDS, sweeping the Twins in three games though only one of those three was on the road.
Houston, on the other hand, finished the season hot. They won three consecutive contests to close out the regular season and were victorious in 12 of their final 14 contests to grab home field advantage throughout the playoffs, ending with a better record than the Yankees.
That could be key in this series. Both the Yankees and Astros have been nearly unbeatable at home. Houston won all three home games in the ALDS and posted a .741 winning percentage at home. New York had a .704 percentage at Yankee Stadium.
The home field edge played out in these team’s head-to-head games during the season, too. Houston swept the Yankees in a three-game series at home while New York won three of four in a set in the Bronx.
Lineup Breakdown
The similarity between these two teams go beyond the fact both are nearly unbeatable at home. These are also by many measurements, the two best offenses in baseball. Overall, the Yankees were first in the sport in runs scored, Houston ranked third. Meanwhile, the Astros had the best team OPS at .848, New York with third at .829. Both times, Minnesota was in the middle.
Focusing on the second half of the season, both teams saw their offense improve. Houston dominated with a league best 462 runs scored and .887 OPS. New York plated 440 runs and had a .858 cumulative OPS. Houston was first, New York second, in both categories.
Breaking it down to individual players, the Yankees have the offensive edge behind the dish with Gary Sanchez even after a lackluster ALDS for the backstop while Houston uses Robinson Chirinos and Martin Maldonado. The Houston duo each have an average OPS+ while Sanchez has a low average and OBP but has 34 home runs. Defensively behind the dish, the Astros are better.
Around the infield, things are balanced save for third base. At first D.J. LeMahieu brings a 136 OPS+ and .327 average to the dish. LeMahieu has played all over the diamond, but with struggles by Luke Voit down the stretch, he saw time at first in the ALDS and should stay there for the ALCS. He’s a lead-off hitter with 102 RBI and a catalyst for a stacked lineup behind him.
Yuli Gurriel is at first for the Astros and is one of four players with at least 30 homers for Houston. He hit 31 bombs and drove in 104 batters while posting a .298/.343/.541 slash line. Gurriel and LeMahieu serve slightly different roles in the lineup but are both strong offensive contributors.
Up the middle, the Yankees have Gleybar Torres at second and Didi Gregorius at shortstop. Gregorius’ overall numbers on the season were lackluster, but the two combined to go 9-for-22 in the ALDS with seven runs scored, a pair of homers and 10 RBI. In the regular season, Torres hit 38 home runs and drove in 90 with a 128 OPS+.
Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa are up the middle for Houston. Like Gregorius, Correa missed plenty of time with injury, but unlike the Yankee shortstop, Correa put up impressive numbers when he was on the field. The two combined for 52 home runs despite Correa playing less than half of the team’s games. Both had an OPS north of .900. Correa struggled in the ALDS, but Altuve hit three homers and drove in five.
At third, Alex Bregman beats out Gio Urshela even with the latter having a huge break out season for New York. Bregman is an MVP candidate and went 6-for-17 with three walks in the ALDS. He posted a regular season slash line of .296/.423/.592 and hit 41 homers. Urshela had a better average at .314, but a lower OBP and half the homers. In the ALDS, the Yankees’ No.9 hitter was 3-for-12.
Moving on to the outfield, the Yankees have Aaron Judge, Brett Gardner, and Giancarlo Stanton as the starting three. Gardner had a surprisingly strong season as a 28-homer bat and movable piece in the order. Judge and Stanton, meanwhile, are huge power threats though Stanton was limited to just 18 games this season and looked the part of a player who missed most of the season against Minnesota, struggling to get anything going in the brief ALDS.
For Houston, George Springer starts off the batting order with a bang, literally sometimes give his 38 home runs. He’s a tough first batter in a lineup. He’ll switch between centerfield and right field depending on the opposing hitter, allowing Jake Marisnick and Josh Reddick to play depending on the matchup. Both Reddick and Marisnick are better defenders than offensive players, but both can swing well in platoon matchups.
Michael Brantley is the other outfield option and a difficult at bat for any pitcher. Brantley doesn’t have the power of Judge or Stanton but is a proven hitter with a .311 average and enough power to be dangerous thanks to 22 homers and 40 doubles.
As for the DH spot and the bench, Yordan Alvarez and Edwin Encarnacion are both excellent hitters. Encarnacion is more experienced, but Alvarez had a monster rookie season. Despite just 87 games, the 22-year hold hit 27 homers, drove in 78 and had a 1.067 OPS. Encarnacion had a nice ALDS, but his numbers don’t exactly match up.
New York, however, does have a deeper bench than the Astros as they’ve had to use the next man up multiple times this season. It seems whomever they used stepped up and delivered in a big way. Houston has some depth with Aledmys Diaz and Kyle Tucker, but New York has a bit more.
Probable Pitchers
The order of the rotations in this series is still uncertain and could change as the series progresses, but Game 1 is likely to feature Zack Greinke for the Astros against the Yankees’ James Paxton.
Greinke faced New York twice in the regular season as a member of the Diamondbacks and pitched well with a 2.13 ERA and 0.87 WHIP in 12.2 innings of work. He did struggle in his ALDS start, however, and has had some issues in his career in the postseason.
He lasted just 3.2 innings against Tampa Bay and gave up six runs in the loss. He’s 3-5 in postseason games with a 4.58 ERA.
Despite those lackluster postseason numbers, he’s still a dominant pitcher. He was 8-1 in 10 games for the Astros down the stretch with a 3.02 ERA and had a 18-5 record and 2.93 ERA with a 0.982 WHIP in 208.2 combined innings this season.
As for Paxton, he started Game 1 of the ALDS and went just 4.2 innings and allowed three runs. It wasn’t a great start, but he kept the team in the game during his first postseason appearance.
The 30-year old southpaw has great stuff, but has struggled to stay healthy in his career, he missed a few games this year, but had a good campaign overall, going 15-6 with a 3.82 ERA and 3.86 FIP.
Beyond Paxton, the next two starts will go to Masahiro Tanaka and Luis Severino in some order.
Tanaka finished the year with a 4.45 ERA after a rough second half while Severino pitched just 12 innings in the regular season spread over three starts.
Despite the overall numbers, there’s still plenty to like about both starters. Tanaka, for one, is an excellent postseason pitcher and has pronounced home/road splits making him a good candidate for Game 3 at home.
In 16 home starts this year, Tanaka is 8-3 with a 3.10 ERA. He’s 3-6 with a 6.05 on the road. As for his postseason numbers, the right-hander has made six postseason starts and has a 1.54 ERA. He went five innings in his start in the ALDS, allowing one run on three hits while striking out seven.
Severino, meanwhile, has had a checkered postseason past with a Wild Card start lasting a third of an inning, but he’s also had good postseason outings, including his start against the Twins where he went four innings of shutout baseball, allowing four hits and two walks.
He was limited to those four innings just because he hasn’t been able to work his pitch count up this year. He’s not going to give the Yankees length when he takes the mound but has pitched very well in his limited times on the bump this year.
For the Astros in the second and third games of the season will be Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole. Verlander had a good outing and a poor one in the ALDS while Cole was phenomenal both times out.
The two are likely the top two candidates for the AL Cy Young Award this season. Verlander was 21-6 with a 2.58 ERA and 0.803 WHIP in 223 innings this season. He struck out 300 and had a league best 7.14 K:BB. Cole was 20-5 with a 2.50 ERA and league best 2.64 FIP along with a staggering 326 strikeouts.
In the ALDS, Verlander was lights out against the Rays in Game 1, going seven scoreless with only a single hit allowed. He allowed seven hits and three walks in 3.2 innings in Game 4 as he struggled on short rest. He’ll be on regular rest in this one.
Overall, Verlander has quite a strong postseason resume with a 3.20 ERA and 14-8 record in 27 games.
Cole doesn’t have as many postseason starts as Verlander, but in the seven he’s made, he’s 4-3 with a 2.62 ERA. He won both of his starts in the ALDS this year, striking out 25 in the effort, the second most by a single player in any postseason series ever.
Furthermore, in those two starts, Cole allowed just one runs on six hits and three walks in 15.2 innings.
While the top three starters for both teams figure to get the bulk of the starter innings for both teams, each squad will likely need to use a fourth starter in this series. The Yankees didn’t have a fourth game in the ALDS and the Astros opted to go with Verlander on short rest, but avoiding a fourth starter is harder in a seven game set.
The fourth starter for the Astros is the biggest weakness for the team, but it’s also a weakness for the Yankees.
Houston will probably turn to Jose Urquidy. He’s young and inexperienced, but the 24-year old looked good in nine appearances. He made seven starts, threw 41 innings and had a 3.95 ERA and 1.098 WHIP. He threw 1.2 innings in a relief appearance in the ALDS without allowing a run.
The Yankees have J.A. Happ has a possible Game 4 starter. They could also go with Chad Green as an opener. Green was a great opener when given the chance in the regular season, but if he does open, the team will still need someone to give innings. That would likely be Happ or C.C. Sabathia.
Both veteran southpaws had a rough season overall with a high-4s ERA and mid-5s FIP.
Bullpen Comparison
The conventional wisdom says the Yankees have the advantage here with the likes of Aroldis Chapman, Zack Britton and Adam Ottavino. While that’s likely true, it’s not really that big of a difference between these two relief corps. Houston’s bullpen is much better than it was when these two teams met in the ALCS in 2017.
In fact, Houston had the better bullpen ERA this season though the New York pen delivered better results in the ALDS in nearly the same number of innings. Houston’s pen pitched 13 innings allowing seven runs. New York threw 13.1 and allowed three. New York also had more strikeouts, but walked a couple more, too.
Chapman and Britton had some injury questions coming into this series, but both look to be healthy. Those two along with Ottavino are a strong trio. Chapman’s 2.21 ERA is the worst of the bunch.
Beyond those three, Tommy Kahnle and Chad Green are good options. New York, of course, will need the bullpen to come up big with their starters unlikely to give the team more than five innings a piece at the most.
For Houston, Roberto Osuna is a good closer with 38 saves and a 2.63 ERA. He matches up reasonably with Chapman. Ryan Pressly was the key set up option early in the year but slumped a bit down the stretch and had a rough go in the ALDS. He’s still a strong option with a 2.32 ERA and 2.66 FIP. Will Harris is another strong one with a 1.50 ERA in 60 innings.
There are plenty more options with Josh James, Joe Smith and Hector Rondon, all capable of eating innings for A.J. Hinch though the team will hope few innings are left after their top three starters.
MLB Pick
These are two balanced teams playing in a series that felt destined to happen since early in the season. Houston beat the Yankees when these two teams met in the ALCS two years ago and could do so again this year.
The Astros have the advantage in the starting rotation and boast home field advantage which is a huge deal given how strong both teams have been at their home stadiums this season.
Look for both teams to steal a game on the road, but ultimately the home teams to prevail in the bulk of the games with Houston winning at home in Game 7.
Offensively, these two teams are close to equally and in the bullpen things are closer than the common narrative would suggest, but the starting pitching is the key difference and that’s a big one.
Look for the Yankees to play the Astros tough on the strength of their bats and bullpen, but ultimately look for New York’s starting pitching to be a bit too light as the Astros win this after the series goes the distance.
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