In what is a surprisingly important battle for the NL Wildcard, the suddenly competitive Pittsburgh Pirates will journey out west to the mountains to take on the Colorado Rockies in a three-game set. The Rockies took two of three when these two teams met in Pittsburgh back in April and will be looking for a similar result from this series. They’ll have to face a reinforced Pirates rotation, however, which includes Chris Archer who is slated to start game three of the series.
The first game for the three-game series between the Pirates and Rockies is scheduled for Monday, August 6, 2018, at 8:40 p.m. ET at Coors Field. The following games will be played Tuesday night and Wednesday afternoon. All three games in this series will be televised locally.
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Odds Analysis
The Rockies added an arm at the deadline and the Pirates picked up two controllable pitchers for the stretch run, but both teams left the offense intact.
Colorado, of course, ranks near the top in the NL in both runs scored and OPS. They’re always there as a byproduct of their park, but they have a strong offense, too. They’ve got the second most home runs in the league along with an average and OBP both right in line with the Pirates who have hit 26 fewer home runs and rank in the middle of the heap in offense in the NL.
The Rockies have outscored Pittsburgh by about 20 runs which, in the grand scheme of things, is not a lot. Many of the offenses in the NL are very closely ranked. In totality, the Rockies’ primary offensive advantage over the Pirates is power and they sure have a lot of it.
Charlie Blackmon, Trevor Story and Nolan Arenado have each hit over 20 homers with Arenado leading the way at 28. From there, Ian Desmond is one dinger short at 19 and Carlos Gonzalez has seen his power—and overall offensive production—pick up recently. Now, the Rockies have David Dahl who adds an extra level of thump.
For the Pirates, it’s more about getting runs on, over and in. Corey Dickerson has the best OPS on the team at .866 which is lower than both Arenado and Story. Of course, that’s partially driven by ballpark.
Using OPS+ to help take out the ballpark factor, Arenado still has the highest OPS+ on either team at 141, but the Pirates have solid-average or just above performers whereas the Rockies’ offense is a bit more central to a handful of key players. It just so happens those are really good players.
Probable Pitchers
The series will start with an interesting pairing between young starters with Kyle Freeland starting for the Rockies and Joe Musgrove on the bump for the Pirates.
Freeland has been the Rockies’ ace this year and the 25-year old Colorado native has embraced the challenges of pitching at Coors and done well. The southpaw is 9-7 with a 3.20 ERA and 1.273 WHIP in 22 starts. He’s been very productive despite a slightly elevated walk rate. Still, he’s keeping the ball in the park—which is a difficult task at times in Colorado—and is getting big outs when he needs to get those outs.
The lefty is keeping the ball on the ground to help limit the base hits in the large outfield. And, even though he’s not exactly a strikeout pitcher, he’s averaging 7.2 per nine innings and getting the key K when he needs it.
While Freeland’s FIP is a bit higher than his ERA at 4.04 and signs point to him statistically outperforming his actual performance, it’s hard to ignore the impressive ERA. On a negative note, however, Freeland did allow three runs in only 5.1 innings in his last start and went only four frames, allowing five runs when he faced the Pirates back in April.
As for Musgrove, the young right-hander is coming off a one-run, seven innings outing against the Mets in his last start to lower his ERA down to 3.63. He’s 4-5 overall and has a 3.84 FIP due largely to a low walk rate and just six homers in 67 innings.
The Pirates have won just five of the 11 games he’s started, but they’ve taken three of his last five starts as he’s getting more consistent with his performance.
As the series progresses, the Pirates have Jameson Taillon and Chris Archer on the schedule for Tuesday and Wednesday respectively.
Taillon will be pitching at Coors for the first time which is always an adventure. He did well in his last start against the Rockies—last year—throwing five-scoreless but pitching in the altitude where balls don’t break nearly as much, and balls fly further is a different beast.
He comes into the play having been consistent over his last 12 starts, allowing three runs or fewer in each of those starts. He’s got a 3.18 ERA in that time. Overall, the young righty is 8-8 with a 3.74 ERA and has a team leading 3.57 FIP thanks to the best strikeout rate on the team.
As for Archer, the right-hander had a poor debut for the Pirates, going just 4.1 innings and allowing five runs—albeit just four were earned—while giving up seven hits and four walks. While Archer showed flashes of what the Pirates thought they acquired at the deadline in striking out six, Pittsburgh needs more from Archer, much more.
Coors is a tough place to try and build off a tough outing, but he has pitched well there in his only previous start, striking out 11 Rockies hitters and giving up only two runs in six innings of work.
For the Rockies, they’re shuffling their rotation to try and fill Tuesday’s spot. It was supposed to be Antonio Senzatela who had been pitching well, but he’s now on the DL and the spot will likely go to Chad Bettis who is just coming off the DL. German Marquez will start on Wednesday.
Bettis is a veteran in this rotation at the ripe old age of 29 and is 5-1 with a 5.10 ERA and 5.08 FIP in 17 games before going on the DL with a blister issue. The right-hander last pitched on July 1, lasting just three innings, but he’s healthy now and was dominant against the Pirates earlier in the year, going 7.1 scoreless innings.
Meanwhile, Marquez is 9-8 with a 4.70 ERA which equates to a 101 ERA+ given his home ballpark. He’s got a 4.33 FIP and 1.345 WHIP as he’s struggled on occasion with walks and has allowed 20 homers in 122.2 innings, but he’s also one of the team’s bigger strikeout arms with 9.5 per nine innings.
Marquez is also a big reason why the Rockies rotation has been so good lately. He’s gone at least six innings, allowing two runs or fewer in five of his last six starts. Against the Pirates, he went six innings, allowing two runs back in April.
Live Betting
The starting pitching matchups give us some interesting matchups, but we’re likely to see a couple of these games resolved after the starters leave the game, making the bullpens crucial.
Both the Rockies and Pirates added to their pen prior to the non-waiver trade deadline with the Rockies adding Seunghwan Oh and the Pirates acquiring Keone Kela.
Oh has thrown four scoreless innings over four appearances since being added to the roster and gives Bud Black another viable arm in the late innings. Given some hiccups along the way for Wade Davis, Bryan Shaw and Jake McGee, that’s a very good thing. Davis just saw his ERA eclipse five while Shaw has a 6.75 ERA and McGee has a 6.63 ERA. Amongst them, those three have also lost 14 games.
The bullpen was supposed to be a strength for the Rockies, but there’s no denying the numbers are bad other than the 1.35 ERA and 0.881 WHIP for Adam Ottavino.
The Rockies’ bullpen isn’t as bad as the numbers represent, but Davis isn’t pitching his best right now and other than Ottavino and now Oh, there isn’t a whole lot of reliability there.
That’s a big different for the Pirates. The Rockies have bigger names in the pen, but Pittsburgh has gotten more consistent results this year. Of course, much of that can be traced back to the ballpark and the Rockies’ arms are at least used to pitching at Coors by now. The Pirates are not.
Still, with Kela making his scoreless debut, the Pirates now have him, Kyle Crick, Richard Rodriguez, and Edgar Santana setting up Felipe Vazquez.
Crick and Santana both have a sub-3 ERA while Rodriguez has a 3.02 ERA, though that number was better before some struggles for Rodriguez. The addition of Kela helps to minimize some of those struggles and gives Clint Hurdle a more reliable option. After all, the former Texas closer has been throwing well all year.
MLB Pick
These two teams are only separated by a couple games in the standings, but the Rockies feel like a more competitive team. Perhaps that’s based on preseason assumptions, but the Pirates rode a hot-streak to 11-straight wins which put them back in the race. Since then, however, they’re back to playing sub-.500 ball.
Look for the Rockies to take this series just like they did when they played the Pirates at PNC Park. After all, the Pirates are a sub-.500 team on the road while Coors Field is an especially difficult place to play, particularly for pitchers and that’s the one area the Pirates may have an edge. The Rockies’ pitchers, however, have been throwing well and that includes pitching well at Coors.
Count on the Rockies to take two out of three while the Pirates’ pitchers struggle a bit in the thin air. Meanwhile, the Rockies’ hurlers—at least Freeland and Marquez—are throwing the ball very well, including at home.
These two teams are too close in talent—and results—that it’s hard to project a series sweep, but the Pirates aren’t the same red-hot team that won 11 straight and are at a couple disadvantages in this series.
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