Even after shockingly falling at home to the Tennessee Volunteers as decided favorites at online sportsbooks, the loss didn’t do much in the way of knocking the No. 6 Kentucky Wildcats out of SEC title contention. In fact, the regular season title already belongs to John Calipari’s troops so it remains to be seen just how locked in Immanuel Quickley and his mates will be for this rematch with a Florida Gators squad that’s played its best ball of the season when on the comforts of its Gainesville hardwood. The Gators had the Wildcats on the ropes in Lexington when these teams first locked horns at the end of February, but allowed them to recover and escape with the win and miracle cover. The loss was the third straight in the recent rivalry which should have Florida locked in to protect its house come Saturday afternoon.
This SEC tussle is set to tip-off on Saturday, March 7, 2020 at 1 p.m. ET from the Exactech Arena in Gainesville, FL. The game will be broadcast live on CBS.
Odds Analysis
Kentucky entered Tuesday night’s home tilt against the Vols smoking white hot in rattling off eight straight wins and covering all but one of them against the closing college basketball odds. They looked well on their way towards a ninth straight win and fifth straight cover after taking a 42-31 lead with them into the break, but it didn’t come to fruition. John Fulkerson’s career night led to a Tennessee explosion over the course of the game’s final 20 minutes that saw the Volunteers outscore the Wildcats by 19 points to tally the 81-73 outright win and cover as decided 8.5-point underdogs. Tennessee simply just wanted it more scrambling for every loose ball to win the rebounding battle 31-26, and outshot KY 52.8 to 44.6 percent. The Wildcats hit the highway looking to improve upon their 7-2 SU and ATS true road records.
As it stands right now, current Bracketology simulations have Mike White’s Gators squaring off against Texas Tech in the 8/9 matchup in the West Region. I don’t know about you, but I’d want absolutely nothing to do with taking on Chris Beard’s Red Raiders in the first round of any tournament as well-coached and defensive oriented the team is. With that, the Gators find themselves in solid positioning to improve upon their NCAA Tournament seeding by closing the regular season out strong and putting forth a good showing in the SEC Tourney. It’ll return home off a hard-fought road win against Anthony Edwards and the Georgia Bulldogs looking to better its 11-3 SU and 6-8 ATS records when playing in front of the hometown faithful. Since falling to both Baylor and Mississippi State, the Gators have gone 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS as hosts.
Key Stats
As evenly matched and ranked these teams are against one another, it came as no surprise to see the first showdown in Lexington go down to the wire. It was a physical game from the opening tip with each squad combining for a grand total of 104 shots and 24 overall attempts from the free throw line. The game ultimately came down to turnovers and free throws; Kentucky barely showed out in both categories in nailing all 10 of its free throws while Florida went 9-of-14, and it also turned it over 13 times to Florida’s 15. The final turnover ended up being the one that broke the camel’s back for Gator backers after Andrew Nembhard fouled Quickley with just 1.9 second remaining down four points. Even in defeat, Keyontae Johnson and company still won the battle of the boards. That’s something to take note of entering the rematch.
Prediction
I came oh so close to taking the points with the Gators in the first meeting and came away thrilled I didn’t. However this time around, I can’t help but get me a piece of Florida in some way, shape or form. Preferably, I’d hope they find themselves trailing at the half so I can back the Gators over the final 20 minutes. However, I’d have no issues backing the home team pre-game if they were catching a possession or two; minimum 3-points. That said, I don’t think they will and it wouldn’t shock me in the least if they ended up being favored. Kentucky has no reason to exert itself and win this game. It’s already locked down the No. 1 seed in the SEC Tournament and likely won’t be able to do much better than a No. 2 or No. 3 seed in the dance. Florida has much more to gain here and will get the job done.
College Basketball Pick: Florida 70, Kentucky 63
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