The top-30 golfers in the FedExCup standings with gather in Atlanta this week for the PGA Tour’s season-ending Tour Championship and the $25 million first-place prize that comes with it. And for the sixth straight year a starting strokes format has determined each players starting position. Just like last two seasons Scottie Scheffler starts from the No. 1 slot as the points leader and gets a head start over the field. Without even swinging a stick Scheffler sits at 10-under with a 2-shot lead over second-place Xander Schauffele. FedEx St. Jude Championship winner Hideki Matsuyama is third starting at 7-under. With the top golfers colliding at historic East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta we see some interesting matchups with the numbers having a different look taking into account the starting strokes. BookMaker.eu has a complete list of tournament matchup odds when you’re ready to place a wager.
Tour Championship Matchup Odds
Scottie Scheffler -175 vs. Xander Schauffele +145
Scottie Scheffler -400 vs. Hideki Matsuyama +315
Xander Schauffele -282 vs. Hideki Matsuyama +230
Ludvig Aberg +100 vs. Rory McIlroy -120
Ludvig Aberg -125 vs. Collin Morikawa +105
Rory McIlroy -125 vs. Collin Morikawa +105
Keegan Bradley -105 vs. Patrick Cantlay -115
Keegan Bradley -144 vs. Sam Burns +120
Patrick Cantlay -144 vs. Sam Burns +120
Wyndham Clark -110 vs. Viktor Hovland -110
Wyndham Clark -115 vs. Tony Finau -105
Viktor Hovland -110 vs. Tony Finau -110
Adam Scott +110 vs. Sungjae Im -132
Adam Scott +110 vs. Russell Henley -132
Sungjae Im -120 vs. Russell Henley +100
Shane Lowry +132 vs. Tommy Fleetwood -159
Shane Lowry -125 vs. Sahith Theegala +105
Tommy Fleetwood -179 vs. Sahith Theegala +148
Byeong Hun An +100 vs. Akshay Bhatia -120
Byeong Hun An -110 vs. Aaron Rai -110
Akshay Bhatia -115 vs. Aaron Rai -105
Billy Horschel -144 vs. Robert MacIntyre +120
Billy Horschel -144 vs. Justin Thomas +120
Robert MacIntyre -110 vs. Justin Thomas -110
Sepp Straka -127 vs. Taylor Pendrith +106
Sepp Straka -135 vs. Christiaan Bezuidenhout +113
Taylor Pendrith -115 vs. Christiaan Bezuidenhout -105
Matthieu Pavon +115 vs. Tom Hoge -138
Matthieu Pavon +115 vs. Chris Kirk -138
Tom Hoge -110 vs. Chris Kirk -110
Need to Know
The starting strokes format is designed to give those who performed better over the course of the season an advantage. A six-time winner this year, Scheffler opens with a 2-shot lead over two-time major winner Schauffele with Matsuyama three back and BMW Championship winner Keegan Bradley four shots off the pace. The number of starting strokes assigned gets smaller the further down the list we go with the bottom five starting at even-par. The starting strokes are factored into the matchup odds, which is why the numbers look different. However, sportsbooks have markets that don’t include starting strokes. Twice in the previous five editions has the No. 1 seed prevailed. Rory McIlroy came from 5-shots back to win in 2019 and recovered 4-strokes in 2022. A renovated East Lake is longer playing at 7,490 yards at par 71 and it boasts some of the narrowest fairways on Tour making accuracy critical. Winning scores prior to 2019 ranged from -7 to -13 making it difficult for those further down the starting block to make up shots.
Tour Championship Matchup Picks
Xander Schauffele +145 vs. Scottie Scheffler
For the purpose of this article we are taking the starting strokes into account, otherwise you probably wouldn’t catch Schauffele at this price. Starting 2-swings behind Scheffler is a big deal but the top-ranked player has had trouble in the playoffs finishing outside the top 30 last week. It didn’t matter since he had a big lead, but it’s troubling nonetheless. And starting at 10-under last year he finished T6. Schauffele has been a beast at East Lake and the 2-swing difference is nothing. And his price is nice.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout +113 vs. Sepp Straka
A sign of just how good Bezuidenhout has been is making the final tournament without winning a title during the season. He finished among the top 25 in 14 worldwide starts with five doubling as a top 10. His game has been more consistent than Straka’s and giving up a shot to get the South African at this price is something I’m willing to do.
Ludvig Aberg +100 vs. Rory McIlroy
I just like the composure of Aberg and his game appears to be flawless. He’s debuting in this tournament but being a first timer hasn’t scared him. At last week’s BMW he collected his third runner-up of the season and his eighth top 10. He is the highest seeded non-winner in the field and he’s giving up a stroke to a TOUR Championship legend, but McIlroy hasn’t been the same since blowing his chance at a major victory at the US Open.
Keegan Bradley -105 vs. Patrick Cantlay
Bradley is just along for the ride after having his bag packs for the offseason. He was the last player to qualify for the BMW Championship and he went out and won the thing with a stoic performance. Since he probably didn’t plan on being here the pressure is lifted and he can play golf. And with a 2-swing lead over his matchup partner it’s going to be hard for Cantlay to overcome that.
Sahith Theegala +148 vs. Tommy Fleetwood
I’m counting on Theegala breaking out his mini slump and I know he can do it because I made a good chunk of change on him in matchups during the season. He’s really struggled in the playoffs as the only player in the field without finishing among the top 35 in any of the previous two tournaments. I think with those two events out of the way Theegala can settle down and get back to his game that produced seven top 10s among his nine top 20s this year. And at his price the risk if definitely worth the reward.
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