The first and most important factor to consider on Breeders Cup Saturday is that it is a very chalky and public type of day. Much like March Madness in college basketball there will be a lot of one-time warriors that bet the Breeders Cup and perhaps the Triple Crown races and nothing else the rest of the year when it comes to horse racing. Beyond that what makes handicapping the Breeders Cup so enjoyable is the challenge of sorting through the best horses in the world. But betting on the chalk is more often than not an amateur hour move. With that in mind let’s take a look at some of the longshots that the public won’t touch and as a result could bring some additional value.
2018 Breeders Cup Saturday Race Longshots
Date and Time: Saturday, November 3, 2018
Location: Churchill Downs, Louisville, Kentucky
Breeders Cup Odds at Bookmaker.eu: Check Back Later
2018 Breeders Cup TV Coverage: NBCSN
Mendelssohn
At 12/1 for the Breeders Cup Classic, Mendelssohn could prove to be one of the potentially better values for the entire day. Mendelssohn has posted over $2.3 million in earnings and was the 2017 Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf winner. He will enter the classic with a total of 11 Graded Stakes Points for 2018. Mendelssohn is considered to be a classic underachiever that is coming off a third place run in the Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup Stakes on September 29 and a second-place run in the Grade 1 Saratoga on August 25. Aidan O’Brien is the trainer. Mendelssohn will be looking for redemption after a 20th place finish in the Kentucky Derby.
Gunnevera
Another potentially valuable long shot with a chance in the Breeders Cup Classic is Gunnevera at 11/1. As a matter of fact, Gunnevera has posted over $3 million in earnings to go with 10 graded stakes points for 2018. In his last race on September 1, 2018 Gunnevera finished second in the Grade 1 Saratoga. Gunnevera is trained by Antonio Sano.
Pavel
Pavel is another 10/1 shot that will be largely ignored by the public in the Breeders Cup Classic that brings the legitimate potential to win the race. Pavel brings over $1.3 million in earnings and 16 graded stakes points to the Saturday Classic. Pavel’s top run this year was a win in the Steven Foster Handicap on June 16, 2018.
Channel Maker
Channel Maker opened as the last choice for the Breeders Cup Longines Turf which itself is a huge race as evidenced by the purse of $4 million. The Turf is a mile and a half and length and has a prohibitive favorite of Enable at 4/5.
Channel Maker is trained by William Mott and has already won a 2018 Breeders Cup Challenge race with the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic and has compiled 26 grades stakes points. With over $1 million in earnings Channel Maker is also in good form for this one on Saturday. Prior to winning the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic at Belmont Park, Channel Maker finished second at the Sword Dancer Stakes at Saratoga. At the same track Channel Maker won the Bowling Green Stakes. A lot of gamblers may be cool to Channel Maker do to a slow career start but the last three races are indicative of massive improvement.
Champaign Problems
In the $2 million Longines Distaff the length of the race is 1 1/8 miles and is for the best female dirt horses. Champaign Problems could bring exceptional betting value at 15/1. Additionally, she is in top form with places and two wins in her last four races. Trainer Ian Wilkes could pull off one of the biggest upsets of the day.
Odds Analysis
Keep in mind that this is not an ordinary day at the track. Even the longshots are good in the Breeders Cup. With that in mind Channel Maker is an appealing value.
Free Breeders Cup Betting Odds Pick: Channel Maker
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