The 2020 Kentucky Derby might not have fans or the same atmosphere you would see in early May, but millions at home will be cheering on the Run for the Roses. Tiz the Law is the favorite to win this race, and as luck will have it, he is starting in between his two primary challengers. The 2020 Belmont Stakes winner will run out of No. 17, while Honor A.P. runs out of No. 16 and Authentic runs out of No. 18. That should make the outside of the track very interesting before the first turn, especially since Churchill Downs will be using a 20-horse gate rather than main and auxiliary gates this year.
2020 Kentucky Derby at a Glance
Date and Time: Saturday, September 5, 2020, 7 p.m. ET
Location: Churchill Downs, Louisville, KY
Length: 1 1/4 miles ( 10 furlongs ), dirt track
Purse: Approximately $3 million
Kentucky Derby TV Coverage: NBC
Unfortunately, we won’t see one of the best horses at this year’s Kentucky Derby. Nadal suffered a fractured leg during a workout at Santa Anita at the end of May, ending his racing career. He was the betting favorite to win the 2020 Kentucky Derby per the horse racing futures odds, and that has opened the door for Tiz the Law. Basin, Wells Bayou, and Dr. Post won’t be at Churchill Downs either, and Art Collector was scratched after suffering a minor foot injury earlier this week.
2020 Kentucky Derby Head-to-Head Matchups
Since Tiz the Law is expected to go off as an even money or odds-on favorite at this year’s Kentucky Derby, there are no head-to-head matchups pitting him against other horses in this field. However, the other 17 horses all have individual matchups, so let’s take a look at those odds.
Honor A.P -160
Authentic +130
These two horses have a history with one another. Authentic beat Honor A.P. by 2 ¼ lengths to win the San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita back in March, but Honor A.P. returned the favor with a 2 ¾ length win over Authentic at the Santa Anita Derby in June. Honor A.P. has been consistent with Beyer ratings of 105, 101, 105, and 106 in his last four races, while Authentic has posted numbers of 113, 105, 101, and 109. That most recent rating is enough for me to go with the underdog here.
Thousand Words -130
Ny Traffic +100
Both these horses are seen as outside contenders with Ny Traffic sitting at 16-1 and Thousand Words currently at 18-1 as of Thursday afternoon. These horses are both well-tested in terms of graded stakes races, but there have been some consistency issues with Thousand Words. He was strong at the Los Alamitos Futurity and Robert B. Lewis Stakes, winning both races, but he was not as sharp at the San Felipe Stakes (87 Beyer) and Los Alamitos Derby (92 Beyer). Meanwhile, Ny Traffic is trending in the right direction. His early performances weren’t anything special, but three consecutive place finishes with speed ratings of 98, 99, and 109 has him looking like the better play.
Money Moves -130
Storm the Court +100
Money Moves is a big unknown heading into his first graded stakes race. He has been impressive in claiming races, posting a 109 speed rating at Saratoga in July, but he has never faced quality horses or a crowded field. On the other hand, Storm the Court is one of the most blooded horses at the Kentucky Derby with eight graded stakes races under his belt. That experience will come in handy, and Storm the Court is the better option even though his best speed rating this year is a 103.
Mr. Big News -118
Major Fed -112
It took Mr. Big News four tries to win his maiden, and he has yet to finish better than fifth in a graded stakes race. His best speed rating in a graded stakes race is an 87, so it’s puzzling to see him as a slight favorite by the Kentucky Derby betting odds over Major Fed. Major Fed has posted speed ratings of 92, 92, and 93 in three of his four graded stakes, and he placed at the Risen Star Stakes and Indiana Derby.
Horse Racing Betting Lines
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