The Milwaukee Bucks find themselves two wins away from avenging the playoff defeat to the Miami Heat from a year ago after holding serve back home in the Fiserv Forum the first two games of the series. The opener was a hotly contested battle that was decided in overtime. The second go-round was an all-out romp that saw the Bucks explode out of the gates and never look back en route to logging the decisive 132-98 win and cover as 5-point favorites per the closing NBA odds. Even so, online sportsbooks opened Jimmy Butler and company short 1-point favorites to make this a competitive series in Game 3. The betting markets were quick to flip the script, but it’s highly likely Game 3 back in South Beach plays a bit similarly to the opener as opposed to the demolition that occurred Monday night. With that, I’m expecting points to be tougher to come by once again. Remember, only 198 combined points hit the board in regulation before 18 more were scored in the extra session.
Game 3 of this best-of-seven series between the Milwaukee Bucks and Miami Heat will tip-off on Thursday, May 27, 2021 from the American Airlines Arena. The game will be broadcast live on TNT at 7:30 p.m. ET. We'll have NBA Playoff odds and player props available at BookMaker.eu for this and every game going on tonight’s NBA slate.
NBA Betting Lines at BookMaker.eu
Milwaukee Bucks -1
Miami Heat +1
O/U 227.5
Odds Analysis
Due to Game 1 playing out to a low scorer and sharp bettors taking advantage of the 228 point opener, oddsmakers adjusted for Game 2 lowering the O/U to 222.5. Astute bettors took advantage once again pounding the over to the point that the books were forced to move it all the way back up to 224. It didn’t matter, the combined 230 points ended up clearing all numbers. The betting markets have now gotten the best of linemakers through two played games in this series. Game 3 finds the total all the way back up to 227.5. Miami opened as 1-point favorites, but it’s now the Bucks that check in short 1-point road favs looking to take a commanding 3-0 series lead. Milwaukee did go on to win 20 of its 36 played road games in the regular season, but only managed a poor 14-22 tally against the betting lines with the over cashing in at a 19-17 clip. Miami added to bankrolls on the moneyline at home in going 21-15 SU, but posted a losing 15-19-2 ATS record; the over cashed in 20 of those contests.
Milwaukee Bucks
After struggling from beyond the arc in the series opener to the tune of a wretched 16 percent showing (5/31), the Bucks flourished in Game 2 connecting on 22 of 53 overall shots for a fantastic 42 percent success rate. Khris Middleton splashed down on all three of his attempts, while Brynn Forbes (6/9) and Pat Connaughton (5/9) combined to go HAM off the bench. Surprisingly, the only players to struggle from deep proved to be Giannis Antetokounmpo (1/7), Donte DiVincenzo (2/7) and Jrue Holiday (1/4). Should Milwaukee continue having this type of success from beyond the arc, it will only be a matter of time until they punch their ticket into the Eastern Conference semifinals.
Miami Heat
More times than not, the defending Eastern Conference champs will always have issues competing on the scoreboard if their opponent has one of those nights like the Bucks just put forth earlier in the week. Miami butters its bread at the defensive end of the court where it owns the No. 5 ranked scoring defense and ranks No. 6 in efficiency per the current Hollinger Ratings. The offense – mostly due to injury – has been nothing if not anemic all season long. It ranks No. 25 in scoring (108.1), No. 15 in field goal percentage and No. 19 from beyond the arc. With Butler ailing, it just doesn’t possess the offensive weaponry to match points with the best of the best. The defense must show up over the next two games or the Bucks will be “Sharpied” into the next round.
Milwaukee vs. Miami Prediction
I don’t foresee the Heat being able to make a series of this. There’s a reason linemakers have the Bucks installed decided -1000 favorites to close it out. That doesn’t mean Miami won’t be able to make it interesting over these next two contests regardless of the fact that betting markets turned them into a short pup to win Game 3 after hitting the board the short favorite. For the team to have any shot of cutting into the series deficit, the defense must rise to the occasion. I’ll be betting it does just that in Game 3. Erik Spoelstra wants nothing to do with getting into a shootout with these guys. More times than not, he’ll lose that battle. But if he mucks it up as much as possible and forces Milwaukee to earn every point put on the board, his team will have a fighting chance. Miami’s allowed an average of 110 points per game off two days of rest. Should they mimic that output in Game 3, the combined score shouldn’t threaten the current impost.
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