As Kentucky Derby week begins, gamblers would be wise to check themselves, especially when looking at the top of the betting board. Nothing is more important than matching ability and price with the 2024 Kentucky Derby Odds. It must be remembered that too much square money will inflate the prices at the top of the board. The fact remains that the Kentucky Derby draws more betting action and interest than any other race of the year. Thus, millions of bettors who are clueless about horse racing are wagering on Derby Day. And for those who don’t know about the sport, taking picks from the list of top betting favorites is the preferred method of choice. On the other hand, Sharps and Wise Guys are shopping for quality and value elsewhere on the board.
Let’s look at the top Kentucky Derby Betting longshots and values for Saturday, May 4, 2024.
Horse Racing Betting Lines
On Saturday, May 4, 2024, the 2024 Kentucky Derby will be held at Churchill Downs, Louisville, Kentucky. Post time is set for 6:57 p.m. ET with television coverage on NBC.
2024 Kentucky Derby Top Longshots and Value Plays
Catching Freedom (12-1)
Catching Freedom turned heads at the Louisiana Derby in late March. He trailed frontrunner Track Phantom by 7.5 lengths at one point and then trailed by 2.5 lengths back at the eighth pole. However, Catching Freedom charged up the middle for an incredible last-to-first comeback win in the 1-and-3/16-mile race.
That exhilarating finish in the longest Kentucky Derby prep race isn't the only reason to like Catching Freedom. The colt won his career debut at Churchill Downs by 3.75 lengths in October 2023. It is also worth noting that trainer Brad Cox won the 2021 Kentucky Derby with Mandaloun. Catching Freedom has three wins in five career starts.
Just a Touch (20-1)
With impressive positional speed, Just the Touch is a bona fide contender to win the Derby. He looked very strong in his two recent runner-up finishes at the Gotham and the Blue Grass Stakes. Furthermore, Just the Touch has a distinguished pedigree, as his sire Justify won the Triple Crown and was named Horse of the Year in 2018. Many sharps will be buying into the solid outright odds here.
Mystik Dan (16-1)
A strong galloper, Mystik Dan recently enjoyed a breakout win by eight lengths at a muddy Southwest Stakes. Specifically, the Southwest Stakes is a Grade 3 1-and-1/16-mile Kentucky Derby prep. Mystik Dan has plenty of tactical speed and stamina.
Resilience (20-1)
Resilience demonstrated his value as a Kentucky Derby sleeper with his April 6 win at the Grade 2 Wood Memorial Stakes. The Wood Memorial is a 1-and-1/6-mile Derby prep race that is among the most important each year. Eleven horses that have won the Wood Memorial have also won the Kentucky Derby.
Resilience also has solid training with legendary trainer William Mott. Mott won the 2019 Kentucky Derby with Country House. Also, he was sired by Into Mischief, a former Grade I winner and the sire of Kentucky Derby winners Authentic (2020) and Mandaloun (2021). Resilience makes for a quality long-shot pick.
Domestic Product 26-1
Domestic Product has repeatedly shown a strong finishing kick on fast tracks. While entering the Kentucky Derby off an eight-week layoff is a concern, Domestic Product has a shot. He has the ability for a strong finish under five-time Eclipse Award-winning jockey Irad Ortiz Jr.
TO Password 125-1
TO Password is bound to encounter a faster pace in the Kentucky Derby, and that is a legitimate question mark. However, if he can adapt to an off-the-pace running style, there is the possibility of TO Password launching a homestretch rally, especially if the track is sloppy.
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