The Troy Trojans will have another chance to defend their undefeated conference mark in Week 12 as they play host to the Arkansas State Red Wolves. Troy is fresh off a big road victory over Appalachian State to stay atop the Sun Belt Conference while Arkansas State is in the midst of a five game winning streak.
This contest in Week 12 of the regular season will go down Thursday, November 17, 2016, at 9:30 p.m. ET at Larry Blakeney Field at Veteran Memorial Stadium.
CFB Odds at BookMaker.eu
Arkansas State +8.5
Troy -8.5
Odds Analysis
Across the board, the Trojans have the advantage: offense, defense, special teams. That’s led to 8.5-point advantage at opening.
Arkansas State enters play with a five game winning streak SU, but it’s also been five straight games where they’ve been able to cover an ever increasing spread. The Red Wolves were terrible in their first four games, but there’s no question the team has had a massive turnaround.
On the other side, Troy finally snapped a three game losing streak ATS in Week 11’s victory over Appalachian State.
Matchup to Watch
Troy’s got a more consistent offense than the Red Wolves, but Arkansas State’s got an interesting matchup against a Trojan defense that’s dominant against the run, but struggles with big plays in the passing game.
Arkansas State isn’t exactly a dominating offense no matter how you slice it, but the team’s strength—if you can call it that—is in the air. They’re ranked just above average throwing the ball and well below running it.
Troy should effectively shut down the Red Wolves’ rushing attack so it’s up to the passing game, namely the short down passing attack, to pick up the load.
Arkansas State’s offense has been clicking, too. They’ve scored 41 points per game over the last three games compared to their average of 26 for the entire season.
Justice Hansen has thrown for six touchdowns and just one interception in those three games, too, and has 772 yards. He completed 74.1-percent of his passes in the win over New Mexico State.
On the other side, the Trojans did a pretty good job against the Appalachian State passing game, allowing just 167 yards in the air, no passing touchdowns and notching one interception. So, even ranked No. 108 against the pass isn’t a sure thing for the Red Wolves and if they cannot deliver in the air, they’ll surely struggle on the ground against a top-10 defense against the run.
Both Warren Wand and Johnston White have been serviceable in their roles, but neither are prolific, averaging less than five yards a carry each. They’ll be asked to move the ball enough to keep the defenses honest, but even that figures to be a struggle.
Key Stat
One key differentiator, among several, for the Trojans over the Red Wolves in this game is turnovers.
Troy ranks in the top ten in the nation with a turnover margin at nine. The Trojans have a strong secondary, recording 16 interceptions—amongst the best in college football—and couples that with six fumble recoveries. On the flip side, they’ve been rather stingy about giving up the ball on offense. While they’ve thrown nine interceptions, they’ve lost the ball via a fumble just four times.
Arkansas State, meanwhile, is well below average in their turnover margin. They’re relatively in line with the Trojan offense, allowing eight interception and seven lost fumbles, but their defense hasn’t been able to make up the difference. In all, they’ve turned the ball over three more times than the number of turnovers they’ve gained.
In addition to ranked No. 19 in points scored and No. 28 in points allowed, both considerably better than the Red Wolves, Troy pads that advantage in turnovers.
Free ATS Pick
Other than Clemson in Week 2, the Trojans have won each game this season and that streak doesn’t end on Thursday.
The Trojans offense is dominant and shouldn’t have much trouble against the Red Wolves, but more so Arkansas State’s offense doesn’t have the strength to keep up, even with their latest surge. Look for the running game to go silent and for Hansen to have a good, but not great game, keeping the Red Wolves relevant into the fourth quarter, but ultimately losing by a couple possessions.
Meanwhile, bank on a score—or two—from Jordan Chunn who hasn’t been kept out of the end zone since the Clemson game and look for Brandon Silvers to have another strong outing, extending it to four straight games that he’s competed at least 60-percent of his passes.
College Football Odds: Troy 35, Arkansas State 23
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