Nobody understands just how long the college basketball season is more than the Gonzaga Bulldogs. Their undefeated season came to an end in the national championship game last season, so maybe an early season setback isn’t the worst thing. A brutal stretch of games is what prepares this club for the postseason, and they’ve been really good over the years. The Zags dominated then No. 2 UCLA and lost to then No. 5 Duke. Saturday’s game against the No. 16 Alabama Crimson Tide may seem like a walk in the park. It isn’t, and the Tide will be attempting to put its mark on the young season with an upset victory.
This war on the floor will go down Saturday, December 4, 2021, at 8 p.m. ET at Climate Pledge Arena in Seattle, WA. The game will be televised live on ESPN2. We'll have NCAA basketball odds at BookMaker.eu available for this and every game on the college basketball Saturday schedule.
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Odds Analysis
Alabama has as many losses as the Zags, but the Tide’s 72-68 setback to Iona was significant. Laying 13-points on the closing line, Bama failed to close the game out, missed some critical shots and likely took their opponent lightly. Alabama is a good team, but they aren’t good enough to just show up and expect to win. The Tide responded with payout wins over Drake and Miami improving to 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS. That’s been on a schedule with no nationally ranked teams.
Losing to Duke is one thing, but losing to an unranked team is another. Thankfully for the Zags that didn’t happen as they overcame a halftime deficit to beat Tarleton State. But it was far from the complete showing we’ve seen in the past. Maybe the team was emotionally spent from its 84-81 loss to Duke or maybe some of their flaws were exposed. They were favored by 32-points in that game, the fifth time they played with a line of more than 30 points. They are 4-4 ATS overall.
Alabama Crimson Tide
Basketball takes a back seat to football at Alabama, and that’s certainly the case this week. One thing that can change the perception is success on the court and the Tide have had their share under Nate Oats. Their 27 wins last season were the most in two decades and they started this campaign winning six of seven. The schedule hasn’t been demanding with their last two games against Drake and Miami the biggest so far. And the Tide took down both rather easily covering the closing line and cashing the OVER.
The Tide has a veteran group led by Jaden Shackelford, who leads the team with 18 points per game. And they got greased up for Saturday’s showdown with a dominant second half in their 96-64 win over Miami on Sunday. They used a 17-0 run to outscore the Hurricanes 63-34 over the final 20 minutes. Four players scored in double figures and the Tide shot 54 percent from the field. They have struggled from the stripe, though, making less than 65 percent of their free throws.
Gonzaga Bulldogs
I’m not worried about the Bulldogs especially since they have a national player of the year candidate in Drew Timme and the projected No. 1 NBA draft pick in Chet Holmgren. They lost to a good Duke squad in an instant classic. But like in past years, the Zags are about the team. Sure they have a few stars, but they get production from everybody that plays significant minutes. Against Duke when Holmgren missed a chunk of time due to foul trouble, Julian Strawther chipped in with 20 points and Andrew Nembhard tallied six points, 11 assists and eight rebounds.
And one thing the Zags do well is shoot the basketball. They hit 53 percent of their field goals against Duke and they are second nationally with an accuracy rate of 54.4 percent. That’s led to some high scoring games with more than 80 points in their opening seven contests. They aren’t as strong defensively as they’ve been in the past and if they play like they did against Tarleton State, they could be ripe for an upset. The Texans pressured all game holding the Zags to 47 percent and forcing 16 turnovers. That was an exception, though, and not the norm.
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They don’t have to carry the pressure of an undefeated season with them, but the Zags are a well-balanced team that can shoot the lights out. We won’t see their top scorers go cold at the same time like we did on Monday, and I expect them to be ramped up for another ranked opponent. Taking a break against an unranked foe in the middle of a brutal stretch of games can be a letdown. Look for the Zags to get back to doing what they do best – scoring and winning.
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