The No. 2 Baylor Bears didn’t look great in their return to the hardwood on Tuesday night off a three-week hiatus. It was forced to fight tooth and nail just to outlast the Iowa State Cyclones as decided 24-point favorites. Rust was to be expected however, and online sportsbooks paid for it with the Clones taking most of the sharp money in that fixture. With a game under the belt and only four games remaining on the regular season docket, college basketball bettors should expect to see the version of the Bears that’s disposed of each and every one of its 18 opponents and logged 13 pointspread covers reemerge moving forward. That doesn’t bode well for the No. 17 ranked Kansas Jayhawks who will close the regular season out looking to avoid dropping two straight to upper echelon Big 12 foes. KU covered in Waco as 8.5-point underdogs back on January 18, but they were never in a position to win the game and it took a desperation heave from a benchwarmer to allow for Jayhawks’ backers to cash that miracle ticket.
Take this Big 12 matchup in live on ESPN at 8 p.m. ET from the Phog Allen Fieldhouse on Saturday, February 27, 2021. We'll have NCAA basketball odds at BookMaker.eu available for this and every game on Saturday’s loaded college basketball schedule.
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The first meeting between these teams saw Kansas have a rare excellent showing at the offensive end of the court. It went on to drain 48 percent of shots taken which included a stellar 10 of 19 effort from beyond the arc. Unfortunately, Baylor was even better in knocking down 54 percent of its shots from the field which included a 9 of 19 showing from long range. Both teams were also extremely sloppy with the ball evidenced by 33 combined turnovers which led to total bettors cashing an easy ticket on the over. The high scorer snapped a string of two straight unders making the over just 3-7 in the last 10 overall skirmishes. With the Jayhawks committing a number of untimely miscues in the overtime loss at Texas last time out, KU will likely make it a point to take much better care of the basketball in the rematch. But will it be enough to prevent the Bears from busting the brooms out on them like the Longhorns just did?
Baylor Bears
Though it was far from pretty, Baylor did what it had to do when it had to do it to keep its unblemished mark intact on Tuesday night. It took better than 35 minutes for the Bears to earn their first lead of the game, but once it did, it would never relinquish it. Jared Butler led the way offensively with a team-high 18 points on 5 of 10 shooting which included a 3 of 5 showing from beyond the arc. Mark Vital’s 15 rebounds allowed for the Bears to just barely win the battle of the boards 35-33. The difference in the game proved to be Baylor’s ability to hold onto the basketball turning it over only 12 times to the Cyclones 17, and it also enjoyed some major home cooking in shooting 21 free throws to Iowa State’s five. Baylor will invade Lawrence 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS as visitors with the O/U split right down the middle.
Kansas Jayhawks
Hats off to the Jayhawks for not getting embarrassed by Texas in the second showdown on Super Tuesday. The first time around, the Longhorns bombed away from deep and shot 49 percent as a team to hand Bill Self one of the worst home defeats throughout his tenure as KU’s head basketball coach. The rematch played out much differently; especially at the offensive end of the court. Kansas shot 31 percent and only scored 59 points in the first meeting. In the second, it shot 40 percent overall and went for 72 points. Unfortunately, 43 of those points were scored during the game’s first 20 minutes. After halftime, Kansas struggled mightily managing just 29 total points over the next 25 minutes of game action. After hitting three 3-pointers in the win against Texas Tech over the weekend, Ochai Agbaji remained hot versus the Horns connecting on five of 11 attempts to lead KU in scoring with 17 points. KU will need even more from him on Saturday if the team is to improve upon its 11-1 SU and 7-5 ATS records as a host.
Baylor vs. Kansas Prediction
Kansas possesses a defense stingy enough to hand Baylor its first loss of the season. It concedes just over 66 points per game (No. 76) and ranks out as the ninth most efficient defense in the country per the current Pomeroy Ratings. That said, its offense simply just doesn’t pass the eye test. Its 73.6 point per game scoring average is pedestrian at best, and so are its efficiency metrics which clock in at No. 58 in the country. There isn’t a go to scorer on the roster that the team can rely upon for instant offense. That’s not the case for the Bears with Butler, MaCio Teague, Davion Mitchell and Adam Flagler all fully capable of toting the mail when called upon. While the Bears defense has been susceptible close to the rack in ranking No. 110 in 2-point defense, David McCormack is KU’s lone big that can do damage. But in order for him to take advantage, he’ll have to remain on the court over the game’s 40 minute duration. That’s something he hasn’t been able to do all season evidenced by just fouling out in the game against Texas. As much as I’d like to think my Jayhawks have a shot at pulling off the upset, Baylor is simply just a cut above. The Bears will likely only be laying upwards of five points, but I have them 6-8 points better on Kansas’ home floor. Look for Baylor to shut the naysayers up and take two straight in the Phog on Saturday night!
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