The Baylor Bears are back in the Championship Game for the first time since 1948. It came out the runner-up in that matchup and linemakers at online sportsbooks expect the same result on Monday night when they battle the NCAA Tournament’s No. 1 overall seed for the right to cut down the nets. This is a pairing that was supposed to go down in the regular season. Unfortunately, the coronavirus prevented college hoops bettors from getting a chance to see how these teams actually stood up against one another. It only makes perfect sense that they meet for real on the grandest stage of them all as impressive each team’s overall bodies of work have been. Both teams have been exceptional en route to becoming the last two teams standing out of a 64 team field. But only one has a chance at making history on Monday night. The Gonzaga Bulldogs need just one win to become the eighth team in the tournament era to go undefeated and win the national championship, and my money says they see it all the way through!
Tune into CBS to take this battle in live at 9:20 p.m. ET from Lucas Oil Stadium on Monday, April 5, 2021. We'll have NCAA basketball odds at BookMaker.eu available for Monday’s National Championship Game.
College Basketball Odds at BookMaker.eu
Baylor Bears +4
Gonzaga Bulldogs -4
Total 159
Odds Analysis
The Zags hit the board as 5-point favorites with the total lined at 160 points. The betting market was quick to voice its opinion right out of the chute with Gonzaga being the favored side. As it stands, the betting line has bounced between -4 and -4.5 since opening. It currently checks in with Gonzaga set as 4-point favorites even though it’s received 51 percent of the tickets and nearly 60 percent of the money. But if it’s gotten the slightly larger percentage of tickets and a majority of the money, why is the number to beat heading south? Reverse line movement. Numerous respected sharp money accounts think the number is a bit rich. Or they believe Baylor comes out the winning team. Either way, the books respect those opinions so much that they have no issues taking in all that public money on Mark Few’s kids. The total has also seen a bit of reverse line movement as well with the number to beat down to 159.5 even though 57 percent of the tickets and close to 80 percent of the money expects points to hit the board with reckless abandon.
Baylor Bears
Good grief the Baylor Bears looked fantastic in the Final Four! Though it covered its three prior tourney games against Wisconsin, Villanova and Arkansas, none of those end results were as impressive as the beat down administered upon Houston. Once the floodgates opened minutes into the first half, it was all done but the crying. Baylor would go on to shoot a scorching hot 53 percent from the field and drain 11 of its 24 attempted shots from beyond the arc. On top of that, it only turned the ball over eight times and went on to win the battle of the boards against a Houston team that prided itself on doing just that to become one of the last four teams standing. The end result was a carefree 78-59 demolition that saw it free skate over the final 20 minutes after taking a 25 point lead into the break. If the 3-balls continue to drop like they did against the Coogs, Baylor can win this game. But what if they don’t? Do they have the midrange game to hand the Bulldogs their only loss of the year?
Gonzaga Bulldogs
Lost in the aftermath of Jalen Suggs’s desperation heave that sent the Zags back to the title game for the second time in the last four seasons was the fact that the team went blow-for-blow with arguably the most locked in team in the nation and lived to tell about it. I was dead wrong about UCLA. I didn’t think the Bruins would have much left in the tank to run with the Bulldogs for a full 40 minutes. I was dead wrong. UCLA didn’t lose the game, they just ran out of time. Having said that, the challenge couldn’t have come at a better time for a team looking to make history on Monday night. While the offense went on to convert nearly 60 percent of its shots from the field, it had to in order to barely get past Mick Cronin’s kids. The Bulldogs only shot 33 percent from deep, only forced nine Bruins’ turnovers and lost the rebounding battle by eight caroms. Had that desperation heave not rung true, Gonzaga likely wouldn’t be here right now and I fully believe they know that.
Baylor vs. Gonzaga Prediction
Say what you will about the Zags overall body of work, they’ve gone on to win 29 of their 31 played games by double-digits. And it‘s not like they only played a bunch of cupcakes. There were wins scattered about against Virginia, Kansas, Iowa and West Virginia; the same two Big 12 teams that gave Baylor all they could ask for and more during the regular season. As much as I respect Baylor’s overall game and firmly believe they’re undoubtedly one of the best teams in the country, they’re not No. 1. This matchup is way more up the Zags’ alley than the one against UCLA with the Bruins walking the ball up the court every possession. If Baylor’s shots fail to drop like they did the previous round, the Bears will have no choice but to play at the breakneck pace the Bulldogs prefer to play at.
Gonzaga is going to force the issue. It owns a distinct size advantage down low, and it has the 3-point shooting to match Baylor punch-for-punch. Gonzaga is one of the better teams in the country at valuing their possessions. That should counteract Baylor’s ability to force turnovers and get out in transition. Take that aspect out of Scott Drew’s plan of attack, and it will be up to the Bears shooting to keep them in this one. Baylor just put forth an unbelievable offensive showing on Saturday. Gonzaga just withstood one that same night. Should it occur once again, the Zags will have the offensive firepower and experience to not only keep up but also seize control of the game. In the end, look for the Zags rebounding and free throw shooting edges to propel them to their sixth win and fifth pointspread cover in the tournament.
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