The Final Four tips off in the early evening on Saturday in the “Battle of Texas” with Kelvin Sampson’s No. 2 seed Houston Cougars set to square off against Scott Drew’s No. 1 seed Baylor Bears. The Coogs took one of the more chaotic paths to reach the Final Four for the first time since the Phi Slamma Jamma days from back in 1984 by disposing of four double-digit seeds en route to punching a ticket. The Bears took a more conservative route getting the best of a No. 16, No. 9, No. 5 and No. 3 to become one of the last four teams standing since 1950. Regardless, these were the two best teams from the South and Midwest Regions, so their presence in Indianapolis over the final weekend is warranted. This figures to be an immensely competitive game with both squads lining up two of the best defenses in the country with each offense possessing the ability to stroke it from deep. Online sportsbooks have seen an influx of Baylor tickets and money since the number to beat hit the board.
Tune into CBS to take this battle in live at 5:14 p.m. ET from Lucas Oil Stadium on Saturday, April 3, 2021. We'll have NCAA basketball odds at BookMaker.eu available for this and every game set to go down on Saturday’s Final Four NCAA Tournament slate.
College Basketball Odds at BookMaker.eu
Houston Cougars +5
Baylor Bears -5
Total: 135
Odds Analysis
Baylor initially opened up as 4.5-point favorites with the total lined at 133. Since then, the betting public has sided with the Bears. A decided 75 percent of the tickets and 82 percent of the money has gone along for the ride with Jared Butler and company ultimately pushing the number to beat up to -5. Evidently, linemakers opened the total way too low. The 133 opener lasted all of a minute before some decent sized coin pushed it north. It got as high as 136 before settling back down at 135. As it stands, 64 percent of the bets booked to this point have come in support of a high scorer. However, 57 percent of the money taken in on the total is attached to the under which leads one to believe some tomfoolery is going down as to how respected sharp money accounts are attacking the total.
Houston Cougars
It’s crazy to think that the miracle ending against Rutgers has propelled the Cougars to the Final Four. For all intents and purposes, Sampson’s kids would be watching the tournament from their own couches right now if not for the gift the Scarlet Knights handed them in the closing moments. Regardless, Quentin Grimes, Marcus Sasser and Dejon Jarreau are alive and well, and they look to be in it to win it evidenced by the overall body of work in the last two games. Of the 67 points tallied in the Elite Eight against Oregon State, the guard trio accounted for 48 of them by way of connecting on all 11 of Houston’s made 3-pointers and executing from the charity stripe. Houston also won the rebounding battle 38-27 by way of reeling in an eye-opening 18 offensive caroms! The Cougars have split their four NCAA Tournament matchups against the spread with the under cashing in each of the last three.
Baylor Bears
If not for a meaningless basket made in the closing moments of their opening round romp of Hartford, Baylor would enter the Final Four with four straight pointspread covers in tow. It then went on to dominate Wisconsin before pulling away late to cover against both Villanova and Arkansas. The Bears look to be getting back into the same type of groove that saw it rattle off 17 straight wins before being forced to put the program on pause due to COVID. While it took some time to shake off the rust, Baylor looks to once again be firing on all cylinders at the absolute best time of the season to do so. The defense has only allowed three made 3-pointers in each of its last two games, and its ability to force turnovers against the Razorbacks ultimately allowed it to seize control of the game. The offense just continues to get huge contributions from all of its pertinent parts.
Houston vs. Baylor Prediction
The chess match between Sampson and Drew is going to be a fascinating watch. Baylor’s main weakness defensively comes close to the rack where 53.5 percent of the points scored against the defense come from 2-point range No. 270. However, Houston only scores 45.7 percent of its points from in front of the 3-point line No. 305. So, those weaknesses cancel each other out. With both teams primarily lofting at will from deep, this game will ultimately come down to the side that hits them the most. Baylor concedes a 33.5 percent success rate from deep No. 163, but only 28.4 percent of the points they give up come from beyond the arc No. 98. Houston owns the No. 4 ranked 3-point defense 27.4% with nearly 29 percent of the points scored against it coming from those shots No. 107.
However you cut it, points are likely to be held at a premium with both teams readily able to dominate defensively. It’s all going to come down to making shots. I believe the oddsmakers were correct in opening the total where they did. This is going to be a rock fight with the Cougars looking to slow the game to a crawl so as to not allow Baylor to get out in transition. With that, the Bears just might be laying an inflated number with every possession crucial, and the shot clock being stretched to the limit repeatedly. Gimme the points with the Coogs! Also, back that position up with an investment on the under; this matchup is closer to a coin flip than the betting line suggests!
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