The TCU Horned Frogs may have stepped on a fatal landmine on Tuesday. TCU needed to avoid a loss to Big 12 cellar dweller West Virginia in order to move closer to .500 in Big 12 play and help their NCAA Tournament resume. Instead, the Horned Frogs fell to the Mountaineers (albeit in triple overtime) to move to 6-9 in conference play. It seems very likely that TCU will finish with a losing conference record now, and that could keep them out of March Madness. A win over Big 12 co-leader Kansas State would help them out in a big way.
This Big 12 showdown will take place on Monday, March 4, 2019. Tip-off will be at 9 p.m. ET from Ed and Rae Schollmaier Arena in Fort Worth, Texas. The game will be broadcast on ESPN2.
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Odds Analysis
The Wildcats could have put themselves in pretty dominant position in terms of the conference on Monday. Kansas State had a pivotal showdown with rival Kansas, and a win would have put them all alone in first place and eliminated any hope Kansas had of winning another Big 12 title. Unfortunately for the Wildcats, they couldn’t get the job done. They were only able to muster 49 points in the loss, and that moved them into a tie with Texas Tech for first place in the conference. Winning out would give them a share of the regular season title, and Kansas State should be favored in their last three games.
Two wins over Iowa State have kept TCU on the bubble. Those have been the Horned Frogs only quality victories of note, but they keep on losing winnable games and hurting themselves. TCU lost on the road to the other bad team in the Big 12, Oklahoma State, last week, and the Horned Frogs have now lost four of their last five games.
When these teams met in the Little Apple six weeks ago, Kansas State ended up winning by 10. Both teams struggled from the field, and the difference was turnovers. TCU gave the ball away 18 times compared to just 7 from Kansas State, and the Wildcats made them pay from those extra possessions.
Key Injuries
The only injury to note for Kansas State coming into Monday’s game is Cartier Diarra. Diarra has missed the last two weeks after suffering a broken hand, and there has been no timetable given for when he might return. He was averaging 25 minutes per game before his injury.
Losing Jaylen Fisher for the year in mid-January really hurt TCU. Fisher was one of the team’s top guards, and their depth has been tested when trying to replace his production. The depth in the front court took a hit when Yuat Alok decided to transfer in early January, and it took another blow when Lat Mayen suffered a season-ending knee injury last week.
Player to Watch
Barry Brown Jr. is the straw that stirs the drink for Kansas State. Brown is the team’s leading scorer, and he is putting up nearly identical numbers to last year. He isn’t the best three-point shooter, but he is a player that can get off his own shot in a down-tempo offense, and that’s important. He is looking to bounce back from a dreadful 1-8 performance from the field against Kansas.
Prediction
There aren’t going to be a lot of points scored considering how these teams play defense, and under will be a solid play if the number is in the mid-130s or higher. As for a side, I think Kansas State will get the job done.
CBB Betting Odds: Kansas State 68, TCU 61
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