Despite a couple early season losses, the Michigan State Spartans have rounded out into form as one of the big dogs in the Big Ten as they journey to Lincoln to take on the Nebraska Cornhuskers, looking to improve to 5-0 in conference.
Michigan State currently ranks No.7 in the AP, but is No.3 in adjusted efficiency margin according to KenPom ratings, tops in the Big Ten, even ahead of the Michigan Wolverines. This is a very good team on both sides of the ball and will provide a major challenge for the home team as the Cornhuskers have had a challenging start to their Big Ten schedule after a rather successful non-conference performance.
Can the Huskers use their home court advantage of a rather large upset over a top ranked team on Thursday or will the Spartans continue to cruise, capturing their 11th straight win?
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Michigan State Spartans vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers
Date and Time: Thursday, January 17, 2019, 8 p.m. ET
Location: Pinnacle Bank Arena, Lincoln, Nebraska
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Spartans vs. Cornhuskers TV Coverage: FS1
The Cornhuskers snapped a two-game losing streak last time out, but scored just 70 points, the team’s lowest total since November 26 against Clemson.
Nebraska was 10-1 in the non-conference portion of the team’s schedule, losing only to a highly ranked Texas Tech team. Now, they play another ranked team, this time in conference where they’re 2-3.
Nebraska has struggled to find any sort of momentum and plays well against lesser competition, but has looked overmatched against some of the better teams in college hoops to this point in the season. Even in their most recent win, they didn’t play all that well, failing to pull away from a struggling Penn State team despite playing at home.
Even with a strong overall record, things are rather concerning for the Huskers though the team is still a KenPom darling sitting at No.15 with a surprisingly strong +20.81 adjusted efficiency margin. The problem is, however, the team is seemingly trending in the wrong direction.
The offense is the strength. The team has scored 79 PPG while shooting well inside and out. On the perimeter, Glynn Watson Jr. is probably the biggest threat. He’s averaging north of two three-pointers a game and shooting 41.7-percent from deep.
The Nebraska backcourt is deep in talent. Watson is a nice shot outside. James Palmer Jr. leads the team in scoring with 19.5 PPG, though he’s shooting just below 40-pecent from the floor. Thomas Allen, meanwhile is a nice contributor as the third piece.
Inside, Isaac Copeland is a good scorer and Isaiah Roby is a nice defensive presence, leading the team in rebounds with 6.6 per contest and blocks at 1.7 BPG.
Roby has picked up his game lately and coupled with a good scorer in Copeland, forms a nice tandem inside although neither are particularly huge guys underneath the hoop.
Michigan State, unlike the Cornhuskers, come into this game with very little concern, having won 10 in a row, blowing through teams like Purdue and Ohio State, both arguably better than the Huskers.
The Spartans will be on the road for this game, but that hasn’t seemed to matter lately as Michigan State is playing excellent basketball regardless of venue. In their last road game, they breezed through Penn State and prior to that, they topped a ranked Ohio State team in Columbus.
Michigan State boasts a very strong offense with 86 PPG while shooting 50.5-perecnt from the floor and nearly 40-percent on the outside.
The Spartans have some depth inside with Nick Ward, Xavier Tillman, Kenny Goins, Kyle Ahrens and Aaron Henry all getting significant playing time.
Ward is the leading scorer inside with 16.6 PPG while he, Tillman and Goins are all very good defenders recording a number of blocks while playing well on the glass. Michigan State is one of the best rebounding teams in the country with 44 RPG.
On the outside, the production is narrowed to Cassius Winston with shooting guard Joshua Langford on the shelf. Winston has 17.6 PPG and 7.4 APG.
Langford has 15 PPG when he plays, but has missed the last four games and continues to sit out. With Ahrens dealing with some issues of his own, the perimeter depth has taken a hit. This Michigan State team is still very good even without Langford, but the offense has slowed a bit in his absence.
Matt McQuaid at least provides a good shooting option from the arc to help spread the floor a bit.
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Nebraska got a much needed win its last time on the court, topping Penn State at home 70-64 to improve to 2-3 in conference.
That game happened on Thursday. The Spartans then followed with a matchup against the same Nittany Lions team on Sunday, beating Penn State 71-56 on the road.
The head-to-head comparison against the same team gives us a bit of a measuring stick going into this game. We saw both offenses produce similarly, but Michigan State’s defense stands out as the difference.
Penn State didn’t shoot very well against Nebraska, but got more opportunities by winning the boards with 18 more rebounds. The extra opportunities allowed the Nittany Lions to keep the game close despite shooting 36.2-percent from the floor.
To have a chance at the upset against the Spartans, Nebraska will need to battle on the glass. Watch how the team performance on rebounds early in this and take advantage of the live betting opportunities at BookMaker.eu accordingly.
Key Player
For Nebraska to keep this one close, Isaiah Roby is the key play on the court. Roby had a huge game and almost single-handedly carried Nebraska to victory in their last game, scoring 22-points while recording 11 rebounds and notching four blocks. He even nabbed a couple steals.
Roby stepped up when fellow forward Copeland had a down game and owned the inside of the court, keeping Penn State back in lower-percentage shots.
Roby has just 11.4 PPG this season, but has scored at least 17 in three of his last four games played. He’s shown growth on the season and needs to have another big game alongside Copeland to solidify the frontcourt and draw attention away from the outside.
Just as important as his ability to continue to offer offense is Roby’s strength blocking and rebounding. His 6.6 RPG would rank fourth for Michigan State, but its tops for Nebraska. The Cornhuskers need to compete on the boards.
Roby has upped his rebounding and blocking game lately, too, with 8.3 RPG over his last six games played and more than two blocks again in his last seven contests.
Spartans vs. Cornhuskers Live Betting
The loss of Langford has yet to really have an impact on the Spartans who are rolling even without him, but Nebraska is a bit more of a challenge than Penn State. Still, look for Winston and McQuaid to get by outside while Ward, Tillman and company dominate inside.
Roby and Copeland are a nice tandem for Michigan State to contend, but in the end, there is a bit more depth under the basket for the Spartans who will wear down the Nebraska frontcourt as the game progresses.
Look for huge rebounding efforts from Goins and Tillman to provide plenty of chances for the Spartans who are a better shooting team than Nebraska.
The Cornhuskers will battle and may keep this tight through the half, but look for the Spartans to break away a bit in the second half in route to yet another win.
Check out all of the live betting at BookMaker.eu for Thursday’s college basketball action.
NCAA Basketball Score Prediction: Michigan State 81, Nebraska 71
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