It’s been four years since the Georgia Bulldogs last made it to the NCAA Tournament, and almost two decades since they last won a game in March Madness. Although they had one of the top players in the conference in Yante Maten, they were unable to do anything more than make two NIT bids, and that led to change this offseason. Georgia brought in Tom Crean to give the program a fresh start, but it’s clear that it will take a long time to rebuild. However, they can get a win over an arch-rival when they face the Florida Gators this Saturday.
This SEC showdown will take place on Saturday, January 19, 2019. Tip-off will be at 12 p.m. ET from Stegeman Coliseum in Athens, Georgia. The game will be broadcast on CBS.
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Odds Analysis
Florida has not been great on the offensive end this year, and that has led to some major woes. The Gators were hammered by Florida State in their season-opener, making it four straight losses to FSU, and they also lost to Oklahoma, Butler, and Michigan State in non-conference play. Although they did get revenge on Butler and also knocked off West Virginia, they are currently 1-3 in SEC action with losses to South Carolina, Tennessee, and Mississippi State.
The Bulldogs got a nice win over rival Georgia Tech, but they have been pummeled in a number of their games. They lost by single digits to Temple and Arizona State, but they lost by 15 points or more to Clemson and lowly Georgia State in non-conference action. Georgia has been blown out by three SEC teams already this season too, losing by 15 to Auburn, 20 to Kentucky, and 46 to Tennessee.
Although the game is in Athens, I expect Florida to be a slight road favorite here. These two sides have the same record, but the Gators have played a much tougher schedule and have better results than the Bulldogs.
Key Injuries
After playing in just two games for Florida this year, forward Chase Johnson decided to transfer. Johnson was a sophomore that had sparsely played over his two years in Gainesville, so he won’t be missed too much. More concerning is the injury to Gorjok Gak. Gak has yet to play this year after knee surgery back in April, and his absence has hurt. His play improved by leaps and bounds over last season, and he has great vision for a big man. That has deprived the Gators of a potential offensive weapon.
Georgia has no players listed on its injury report ahead of this game.
Key Stat
The one thing Florida has going for it is defense. The Gators have the seventh-best adjusted defense in the country according to Ken Pomeroy, and opponents have had a hard time scoring buckets against them all year. They slow the game down with their offense and get in half-court set that is tough to beat. Georgia doesn’t have good three-point shooters, so Florida could hold them under 60 points.
Player to Watch
Noah Locke has been the Gators’ three-point ace this season. Over 70 percent of his field goal attempts have been from range, and he is hitting 41.8 percent of his treys. Locke doesn’t provide much else to the team. He’s not a great rebounder or defender, so he needs to be hitting his shots to make an impact.
Prediction
The Gators should be able to get the win here. Florida has more talent and plays better defense than Georgia, and that is key in these noon tip-offs where teams can be a little sluggish. Crean may eventually turn Georgia around, but it is going to take time and he doesn’t have the playmakers available at this point
NCAA Basketball Score Prediction: Florida 67, Georgia 59
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