The Virginia Tech Hokies will hit the road for their third away game in their last four on Monday night, journeying to Chapel Hill to take on the North Carolina Tar Heels in a battle of elite ACC teams.
Both the Hokies and the Tar Heels started their conference schedule 3-1, but Virginia Tech had more success in the non-conference schedule and sits a couple spots ahead of UNC in most polls and in overall record.
North Carolina, however, gets home court advantage in this game. The Tar Heels, however, did take the loss against Louisville at home. They’re not infallible at the Dean E. Smith Center. Still, UNC should open as the favorites given the venue, but can the Hokies get the upset victory at home? Or will it be the Tar Heels with the impressive, resume-building win over Virginia Tech on Monday?
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Virginia Tech Hokies vs. North Carolina Tar Heels
Date and Time: Monday, January 21, 2019, 7 p.m. ET
Location: Dean E. Smith Center, Chapel Hill, North Carolina
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Hokies vs. Tar Heels TV Coverage: ESPN
Virginia Tech only has two losses all season, ranking just inside the top-10 in the nation at No.9 in the AP. While losses are rare for the Hokies, they did struggle against Virginia on Tuesday night, falling 81-59, unable to get anything going on offense.
Of course, much of that falls to the excellent defense of the Cavaliers. UNC is a good all-around team with a strong defense, but Virginia is in a different class there.
The Hokies didn’t shoot poorly from the floor nor did they struggle from the free-throw line. Instead, the issue was more about attempts and opportunities than anything else. The team attempted just 44 shots. On the other side, Virginia Tech struggled to contain the Virginia offense as the Cavs shot 58.5-percent from the floor and nearly as well from three-point range. They sank all six of their free throws.
In the loss, Virginia Tech managed just 19 rebounds and recorded just a single block. That’s relatively in line with the team’s norms. They’re not a great rebounding team with 33 RPG and have just three BPG as a team with nobody averaging more than 0.8 per contest.
Nickeil Alexander-Walker leads the team in scoring with 17.9 PPG and scored 19 in the game against Virginia.
Alexander-Walker is part of a strong, deep backcourt that also includes Ahmed Hill and Justin Robinson as double-digit scorers. Hill is an excellent shot outside, as is Alexander-Walker. Robinson tops the team in assists with 5.6 APG. The backcourt is a strength of the team. They’re scoring 78 PPG and much of that comes outside where they’re shooting 41.8-percent on the perimeter. This is an offensively efficient team with plenty of outside options.
Inside the paint, Virginia Tech is a bit more vulnerable. Kerry Blackshear Jr. is the primary exception. The 6’10” forward has 13.6 PPG and is a good shooter from under the basket, but he’s not a great player on the glass despite his height. He gets some rebounds and leads the team, but he’s averaging 5.9 boards.
Blackshear is typically the lone forward in a four-guard set though Ty Outlaw plays a bit of a roving roll and offers support on the glass while P.J. Horne is getting some sizeable playing time inside despite a more modest height for a player in the frontcourt.
On UNC’s side of the court, they bring a different profile to the floor, particularly when looking at the team’s overall statistical production to this point. The Tar Heels are a higher scoring team with 87 PPG, but have been far less efficient, shooting 46.5-percent from the floor and 36-percent from the outside. Those numbers are still good, but not as good as the Hokies.
Where North Carolina stands out is in pace of play which is much faster than Virginia Tech and rebounding. The Tar Heels are one of the best teams on the boards, led by Luke Maye who is averaging a double-double with 14.4 PPG and 10.1 RPG.
As a team UNC has 44 RPG. Maye, of course, is the biggest part of that, but he’s not alone. Nassir Little, Garrison Brooks and Sterling Manley are strong players inside while Cameron Johnson has 5.6 RPG outside.
Maye, Little and Brooks are all strong contributors scoring. Maye is second to Johnson in PPG at 14.4 and Little is just shy of double-digits himself.
Outside, Johnson is a beast with 15.5 PPG while shooting exceptionally well outside. Coby White is a big scoring threat, too.
Live Betting
Virginia Tech is the more efficient offensive team, but lack a bit on the rebounding front and on defense compared to UNC.
Virginia’s defense was able to slow the Hokies’ offense a week ago and the Tar Heels will try to do the same, limiting their chances at the basket by winning the battle of the boards.
Watch to see how well the Hokies are able to adapt and whether they’re able to compete on the glass. If not, they’ll have to shoot exceptionally well to close the gap.
If UNC is running away with a sizeable advantage on rebounds early, that could be telling for the outcome even if the score remains tight early, take advantage in the live betting opportunities throughout the course of the game at BookMaker.eu.
Key Player
Kerry Blackshear Jr. had 10 rebounds in the game against Georgia Tech and 13 against South Carolina State, notching a double-double in both. Those, however, were the only two games where he eclipsed double-digits in rebounds.
The Hokies need to do better on the glass in this game and that starts with Blackshear. The talented forward had one lone rebound against Virginia, that coming on the offensive end of the floor. He also scored just six points, taking only six shots from the floor, the second fewest this season.
The backcourt for Virginia Tech is solid. This team can shoot, but it needs the opportunities and needs someone like Blackshear to be a threat inside the paint to help spread the defense and open up shots on the perimeter.
Blackshear’s six points against Virginia was his second fewest on the year and only the third time he scored less than 10.
Hokies vs. Tar Heels Live Betting
Look for Luke Maye to dominate the paint in this game, ultimately being the difference. With Maye, Little and Brooks, UNC should win this inside and with Johnson and White outside, the Tar Heels have enough to compete on the perimeter as well.
Virginia Tech’s accuracy shooting will help keep the game close, but UNC should out opportunities the Hokies with several more second and third chances thanks to a superior team on the glass.
Playing at home could be that extra little bump for the Tar Heels as well as they’ve shot better on their home floor than on the road.
Check out all of the live betting at BookMaker.eu for Monday’s college basketball action.
NCAA Basketball Score Prediction: UNC 83, Virginia Tech 77
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