The Mississippi State Bulldogs have a difficult matchup ahead of them on Tuesday night as they play in one of college basketball’s toughest environments in the Rupp Arena against a surging Kentucky Wildcats team.
The Wildcats return home off a huge win at Auburn, getting a big game from Reid Travis amongst others as Kentucky looks poised to go on a run. After all, this is a team many picked as a preseason favorite, but one that despite still ranking amongst the top teams has been a bit of a let-down through the early part of the season. On the other side, Mississippi State had been in a bit of free fall until a couple wins against mediocre SEC opponents have stopped the fall.
In this battle of cats and dogs, can the Bulldogs get the upset and push their win streak to three as they try to climb back up the rankings? Or, are the Wildcats just starting to show how good they can be and will they build off a nice win against Auburn, keeping the momentum going against Mississippi State?
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Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. Kentucky Wildcats
Date and Time: Tuesday, January 22, 2019, 7 p.m. ET
Location: Rupp Arena, Lexington, Kentucky
College Basketball Odds: Check Back Later
Bulldogs vs. Wildcats TV Coverage: ESPN
Back-to-back losses to open up the conference portion of the Bulldogs’ schedule dropped Mississippi to the bottom of the top-25 in the Week 11 rankings, but since, the Bulldogs have bounced back with two straight wins over Florida and Vanderbilt. The team is now 14-3 overall and 2-2 in conference.
The loss to Ole Miss is an interesting case study going into this game as the Rebels are similarly ranked to Kentucky by most accounts though Ole Miss is much lower ranked according to KenPom.
In any case, the Bulldogs struggled from the outside and the free-throw line in that game, ultimately causing Mississippi State to lose by four at home.
The Bulldogs scored fewer points in the wins against Florida and Vandy, but the defense did a better job in those games albeit against lesser teams.
On Tuesday, Mississippi State will be tested again. The Bulldogs will need the defense to play up to match a rather efficient offense.
The Bulldogs are scoring 79 PPG and doing so on strong shooting, particularly outside. From the floor, the team is shooting 48-percent. From the perimeter, the team is sinking 38.3-percent of its shots. It’s also, usually, an accurate shooting team from the line.
Mississippi State is just shy of five players scoring double-digits with Tyson Carter just missing the cut at 9.6 PPG. The junior guard is a good defender.
In general, the backcourt is strong with plenty of scorers including Carter, but also the Wetherspoon brothers in Quinndary Weatherspoon, who leads the team with 16.6 PPG and a solid number or rebounds to boot, and Nick Weatherspoon, who has 10.2 PPG and is the team’s biggest weapon on the perimeter.
Meanwhile, inside the paint, Aric Holman and Abdul Ado offer some height and a strong presence. Holman has 12.4 PPG, 8.1 RPG and 2.2 BP. Ado has 1.7 BPG and adds to the team’s ability on the boards.
On the other side of this matchup, the Wildcats are seemingly coming together at the right time. Kentucky has taken a while to come together, but the team’s starting to look like the elite team we expect year-in and year-out.
The development of Ashton Hagans is a big part of Kentucky coming together lately. The team has won four in a row and Hagans has really stepped up his game in that time with a 23 point effort against Georgia and seven rebounds and six assists in a lower scoring performance against Auburn.
Hagans isn’t a good outside shot, but he’s stepping up as another scorer in place of Quade Green.
Keldon Johnson leads the team in scoring with 14.9 PPG, but is one of just four with at least 11.8 PPG including fellow guard Tyler Herro and forwards Reid Travis and PJ Washington.
Travis had regressed for a while after a hot start to the year, but seemed to have found his game against Auburn with 17 points and seven rebounds. He shot 6-of-7 from the floor.
The 82-80 win over Auburn on the road was huge for the Wildcats who come into this game against Mississippi State flying high. Travis wasn’t the only one with a big game. Both Johnson and Herro scored 20 in the effort to lead the way on the outside.
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After a demoralizing loss to Alabama, Kentucky has seemingly gotten a kick in the right direction, showing offense in wins over Texas A&M and Auburn and defense over Vanderbilt and Georgia. Kentucky has shown it can win both types of games, but can Mississippi provide a threat on both sides?
Kentucky sits nine spots ahead of the Bulldogs in the KenPom’s adjusted efficiency margin ratings. Breaking it down, the two teams are nearly identical in offensive efficiency, but Mississippi State lags behind defensively. Watch how the Bulldogs handle the Wildcats defensively early on as that could be telling to how the game ultimately plays out.
Mississippi State’s shooting accuracy outside could also come into play. The Bulldogs have the edge shooting from the perimeter. If the Bulldogs can show a hot hand outside early that could also be a swaying factor.
Key Player
Hagans has seen an expanded roll with Green gone and has stepped up as another scoring threat for Kentucky, helping to take pressure off some of the other guys on the court. That’s helpful, but Hagans isn’t a good shot outside. Green was the team’s best outside weapon until he left. Now that falls to Johnson.
Keldon Johnson is the Wildcats’ leading scorer so it’s a bit of an obvious pick to use him as the key player, but it’s true.
Travis and Washington are a nice pair inside, but Kentucky will be more evenly matched on the perimeter and there, Johnson is crucial.
Johnson has a solid shooting percentage on the outside, but hasn’t taken that many outside shots recently with just three total in the games against Georgia and Vanderbilt. He took five shots against Auburn, sinking two as he scored 20.
Bulldogs vs. Wildcats Live Betting
Look for Travis to build off a good game against Auburn with another strong outing. The Wildcats have a deep roster of talent, especially with Hagans stepping up.
Kentucky will move the ball around and get good rebounding efforts, too. The defense should step up, too, as Mississippi State’s offense has been a bit suppressed recently.
In the end, this one could be a close one. Even in their recent losses, Mississippi State has been in the game until the end. Look for that here with Kentucky getting the edge. Home court gives Kentucky the edge as Travis and company win the battle of the boards and shoot well enough for the narrow victory.
Check out all of the live betting at BookMaker.eu for Tuesday’s college basketball action.
NCAA Basketball Score Prediction: Kentucky 78, Mississippi State 73
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