Heading into play, it’s not Duke, UNC nor Virginia ranked first in the ACC, instead it’s the North Carolina State Wolfpack holding that honor mostly by a technicality this early in the conference schedule, but the Wolfpack are a strong team and pose a sizeable challenge for the North Carolina Tar Heels when the two teams tip-off in Raleigh on Tuesday night.
The Tar Heels enter play ranked a few spots higher in both the AP and Coaches Poll. Meanwhile, the KenPom ratings favor UNC by an even larger margin overall. The venue should help the Wolfpack, of course, but can NC State extend its winning streak to eight straight and capture another huge win against a ranked opponent? Or, will UNC come away victorious?
The Tar Heels, like the Wolfpack, are playing well right now and while the team carries a few more losses into their matchup, they’ve also been tested more during their non-conference schedule with games against Gonzaga, Kentucky and Michigan.
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North Carolina Tar Heels vs. North Carolina State Wolfpack
Date and Time: Tuesday, January 8, 2019, 9 p.m. ET
Location: PNC Arena, Raleigh, North Carolina
College Basketball Odds: Check Back Later
Tar Heels vs. Wolfpack TV Coverage: ESPN
Through 14 games, the Wolfpack has just a single loss, dropping a road game against Wisconsin in late November, 75-79. That was the fewest points NC State scored all year as the Wolfpack is scoring 89 PPG with fewer than 80 points in a game just three times.
This Wolfpack team and shoot. They’re sinking 52.1-percent of their shots from the floor and are shooting nearly 41-percent from three-point range. Few teams can even come close to that level of efficiency.
Even with the team struggled with free throws on occasion, this team can put up points in a hurry.
Torin Dorn leads the team in scoring with 14.5 PPG, but its Markell Johnson that is the engine that keeps this offense chugging.
Johnson has 12.4 PPG and 4.2 APG. He’s not a contributor on the glass and is fourth on the team in steals. The defense is left up to guys like Dorin and fellow guard C.J. Bryce, but Johnson has shown he can elevate his game against elite competition. The junior put up 27 against Auburn, leading the Wolfpack to a win while shooting 5-for-8 from three.
Johnson is not alone in his strong perimeter shooting, but his 50.9-percent shooting from three on the year is just plain otherworldly.
NC State is an undersized team compared to the Tar Heels. D.J. Bunderburk, Jericole Hellems and Wyatt Walker offer a bit of size, but the trio of forwards aren’t all that prolific scorers. They’re all solid rebounders, but this team’s success on the glass comes just as much from the collection in the backcourt.
The Wolfpack are vulnerable inside though Hellems has shown flashes here and there. He was silenced most recently against Miami, but before that the freshman looked to be coming into his own with back-to-back games scoring in the double-digits. He’s now reached that mark five times this year.
As for the Tar Heels, they come into this game having won just three in a row, less than half of the Wolfpack’s current seven-game trend.
UNC’s most recent loss was a 72-80 defeat by Kentucky. In that game, the Tar Heels’ offense had trouble finding consistency.
The Tar Heels are one of college basketball’s most high-scoring teams. They’re averaging 90 points. While they’re a solid shooting team, their shooting numbers pale in comparison to NC State. Where the Tar Heels hold an advantage, however, is on the boards with a staggering 45 rebounds per game.
Luke Maye leads the way in the rebounding with 9.9 RPG. He’s part of a strong frontcourt that also includes Nassir Little. Inside the paint, UNC has a clear advantage over a guard-heavy NC State program.
Of course, the Tar Heels can also hang with the Wolfpack on the outside, too, with Cameron Johnson and Coby White the team’s top two scorers.
Live Betting
Look for this game to be a high scoring affair. Both teams are excellent shooting teams though NC State takes efficiency to a whole new level.
To have a chance, the Wolfpack will need to shoot exceptionally well. They’re in a great environment to do just that and players like Johnson has shown they can rise to the occasion.
Watch to see how well NC State shoots, particularly on the outside where they need to live in this game. If the Tar Heels outshoot the Wolfpack early, fade NC State, but if the Wolfpack finds success in the early going, don’t be afraid to take NC State to topple the higher ranked UNC.
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Key Player
Jericole Hellems may be the key in this game. Dorn, Johnson and even Bryce should all outscore Hellems, but the young NC State forward has shown flashes over the last few games.
He was a dismal 1-for-7 from the floor against Miami in the team’s narrow win over the Hurricanes on Thursday, but prior to that he scored a combined 29-points in two games while shooting 12-for-25 combined.
He’s been getting more opportunities of late and the key for Hellems will be capitalize on them.
UNC has a sizeable advantage inside. Hellems is one of a few counters to that and probably the most volatile, yet talented.
Tar Heels vs. Wolfpack Live Betting
This should be a tight battle going down to the wire, but look for the Wolfpack to nab the win as Johnson delivers another big game. The junior has played up against tough competition.
NC State doesn’t have the depth of UNC, but it has enough depth to spread the ball around. Look for the Wolfpack to play well on the glass and stay neck-and-neck on in rebounding while outshooting the Tar Heels. The familiarity with the court will ultimately come into play here as will the hometown fans as the Wolfpack battle with the higher-ranked Tar Heels.
In the end, the home crowd should leave happy with NC State playing tough and keeping up shot-for-shot with UNC, ultimately getting the win.
Check out all of the live betting at BookMaker.eu for Tuesday’s college basketball action.
NCAA Basketball Score Prediction: NC State 88, UNC 85
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