The Indiana Hoosiers find themselves at the very bottom of the AP top-25 rankings as they journey to West Lafayette to take on a Purdue Boilermakers team that—itself—is on the bubble of the latest top-25 lists.
In order to hang on at the bottom of the rankings, however, Indiana really needs to turn its fortunes around. The team still boasts a strong 12-5 record, but has lost its last three games to drop to 3-3 in Big Ten play. The conference schedule has been rough and a game against Purdue doesn’t make anything easier, especially on the road.
After all, Purdue is 4-2 in conference and coming off back-to-back wins. Can the Boilermakers make it three in a row and take advantage of playing on its home court? Or, will the Hoosiers finally get back in the win column?
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Indiana Hoosiers vs. Purdue Boilermakers
Date and Time: Saturday, January 19, 2019, 2 p.m. ET
Location: Mackey Arena, West Lafayette, Indiana
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Hoosiers vs. Boilermakers TV Coverage: FOX
Indiana’s offense has shriveled over its three game losing streak, falling 51-66 to Nebraska in its most recent loss, that one coming at home.
In that game, the Hoosiers shot a dismal 29.6-percent from the floor and was a dismal 1-for-7 from three-point range. While Indiana was a bit better in the second half, at least inside, Nebraska was able to cruise to the win, beating Indiana on the glass. The defense for Indiana was the only thing that even kept it remotely close.
The KenPom ratings are less optimistic on Indiana than the AP and Coaches rankings as the last three losses have really impacted their adjusted efficiency margin. In aggregate, this is still an above average team both offensively and defensively, but the former definitely needs to get back on track.
Another issue with the Hoosiers is lack of depth. Indiana has two of the Big Ten’s better players in Romeo Langford and Juwan Morgan, but lacks a dependable third scorer.
Langford and Morgan have 18.8 and 16.5 PPG respectively and both are contributing on the boards, primarily Morgan.
The senior forward is a good shooter who can even sink a shot on the outside, making him a particularly big threat. He’s also a strong defender with 1.4 BPG and a number of steals as well. Devonte Green also adds plenty of steals on defense. He’s not a great shot, but is a good defender outside.
The tandem of Green and Langford is a rather strong backcourt. Langford shows versatility as well though he does struggle outside. Fortunately, Green, Aljami Durham and Rob Phinisee are good outside threats.
Moving to Purdue’s side of the court, the Boilermakers have looked better in conference play than the team did out of conference.
Purdue’s overall record leaves plenty to be desire, but the team has gotten better of late. In fact, the squad is a favorite of KenPom, rankings No.13. The offense ranks very well and the defense is above average.
The Boilermakers have 79 PPG and are shooting 37.4-percent from the perimeter. Of course, everything runs through Carsen Edwards. The junior guard has 24.9 PPG and is sinking nearly four threes a game while taking upwards of 10 shots outside.
Purdue needs to win this on the outside and needs Edwards to be a huge part of that. Still, the Boilermakers are more than just one player. Ryan Cline is a strong, veteran shooting guard.
Inside, Evan Boudreaux and Matt Haarms are solid forwards, but not overly reliable scorers. They’re also not huge rebounders. That’s an area of weakness on this team and one that Indiana has the personnel to exploit behind Morgan and, to a lesser extent, Justin Smith who could have a nice game.
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It’s been a rough stretch recently for Indiana as the Hoosiers have seemingly hit a bit of a brick wall, particularly on offense. Watch how well the team shoots early in the game, particularly those other than Morgan and Langford. Indiana will need someone to step up in addition to those two. If Green or Smith or Phinisee step up, the Hoosiers may be in position to cover the spread and this may turn into a higher scoring game.
Otherwise, look for the Indiana to fight to stay in the game. Both teams have a limited number of true scoring threats. If either team is able to find a way to slow down—or shut down—the other’s stars, that could be a massive difference maker.
Key Player
Carsen Edwards is always and forever the key for the Boilermakers. He’s the best player in conference bar none though his recent shooting numbers have regressed amid solid overall play by Purdue. That’s not sustainable. Purdue needs Edwards to return to sinking upwards of half of his shots.
Edwards looked like that player against Rutgers shooting 50-percent from the floor, including nailing five three-pointers. He scored 19 in the game which is actually below his average for the year, but the efficiency was worth noting.
Edwards will get his chances against the Hoosiers. He just needs to make good on them. After all, this is a guy that scored 36 against Wisconsin while shooting just 38.5-percent and turned a dismal 3-for-16 shooting number against Michigan State into 11 points.
For Purdue to come out with a win in this one, it’s still up to Edwards to lead the way and to build off his strong shooting performance against Rutgers. He’ll have the chances, but if he can shooting over 40-percent from the floor and north of 30-percent outside, that allows the rest of the roster of role players to do their thing without nearly as much pressure.
Hoosiers vs. Boilermakers Live Betting
Purdue is trending in the right direction and the Hoosiers are not. Purdue is also at home where they’ve gone undefeated to this point in the season, including a 16-point victory over a ranked team in Iowa.
The Boilermakers will have the best player on the court in Edwards who will be positioned to have a big game. Look for the star guard to get his share of shots outside and to shoot well inside and out. His shooting numbers will look better than they have in the past few games in this one.
Beyond that, Cline should put up a solid game in support while the frontcourt does enough, at least defensively and on the glass, to minimize the damage of Morgan.
Of course, Morgan and Langford will both still get their points, but look for Purdue to come away with the win at home given the recent trends.
Check out all of the live betting at BookMaker.eu for this weekend’s college basketball action.
NCAA Basketball Score Prediction: Purdue 74, Indiana 67
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