The Virginia Cavaliers have been the best team in the country for the last half of the season. Virginia used its stifling defense to finish 31-2 and win both the ACC regular season and conference titles.
As great as UVA has been this season, it will feel like a bit of a failure if this team doesn’t at least make it to the Final Four. The Wahoos have not made it to that point since 1984, but expectations are high in this bracket. First up are the University of Maryland-Baltimore County Retrievers.
This war on the floor will go down Friday, March 16, 2018, at 9:20 p.m. ET at Spectrum Arena in Charlotte, North Carolina. The game will be televised live on TNT. We'll have NCAA basketball odds at BookMaker.eu available for this and every game throughout March Madness.
Opening NCAAB Basketball Betting Odds at BookMaker.eu
Virginia -23
UMBC +23
Over/Under 121.5
UMBC made it here by pulling off a pretty impressive upset in the America East Championship Game. The Retrievers had been hammered by the perennial favorites in that conference, Vermont, in their two regular season meetings. UMBC lost the first game by 15 and the second one by 28, so no one gave them much of a chance knock off the Catamounts in the final.
However, UMBC’s Jairus Lyles hit a long three-pointer with less than a second left to break a deadlock and send the Retrievers dancing. They held Vermont without a field goal over the final eight minutes and picked up a nice upset as a 9.5-point underdog per the CBB betting lines.
There were no theatrics for the Cavaliers, who just shut opponents down like they had all season en route to the ACC title. They have been able to do just enough on offense to win thanks to their defense and this has been one of the best teams to back all year. Virginia is 20-9-1 ATS and the under is 20-10 in their games, making bettors boatloads of cash.
Key Stat
Virginia has one of the best defenses we have ever seen in college basketball. The Cavaliers are allowing just 53.4 PPG, by far the lowest total in the country. This team isn’t doing it against lackluster competition either, as the ACC placed more teams in the NCAA Tournament than any other conference.
Bennett has the Cavaliers play a pack-line defense. The defense relies on the on-the-ball defender to put a lot of pressure on his man, while teammates stay within an arc in order to help him in case he gets beat. This type of defense means that opponents aren’t going to be able to spot up and hit threes against them.
To beat this defense, you need a guard who can beat his man off the dribble in order to force the help defender to come up and then dish to the open man. No guard has had a ton of success doing that against the Cavaliers this year. Opponents are hitting just 37.5 percent of their field goals and 30.3 percent of their threes against this defense.
Player to Watch
If UMBC has any hope of shocking the world and becoming the first No. 16 seed to ever beat a No. 1, it needs Lyles to have the game of his life. Lyles is averaging a little over 20 PPG and hit some big shots down the stretch to help the Retrievers get past Vermont. He is on the court virtually the entire game at this point in the season, but he hasn’t let that slow him down.
Lyles has showed that he can play with the big boys already this season. He scored 31 points when UMBC took on Arizona in the Bahamas, going 5-8 from beyond the arc. Doing something similar against Virginia is a much tougher order though.
Free March Madness ATS Picks
A No. 16 seed will beat a No. 1 seed at some point in our lifetime, but not in this one. Virginia knows that the key is stopping Lyles and will try to force the ball out of his hands or get him to take bad, contested jumpers.
NCAAB Basketball Betting Odds: Virginia 71, UMBC 44
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