The Duke Blue Devils and North Carolina Tar Heels will collide for the 252nd meeting of what is arguably the greatest rivalry in all of sports on Saturday night with the nation watching on ESPN. Though the rivalry doesn’t have as much at stake this time around with the Heels a wounded bunch basically just fighting for their NIT lives, that doesn’t mean the rivalry will cool off. Especially with the Dookies looking to avenge what UNC did to them at online sportsbooks last season by sweeping the regular season meetings. Granted Zion Williamson missed both, but the Blue Devils only won by a single point with him back in the lineup for round three in the ACC Tournament. Still, North Carolina is a vastly different team now than they were then which will find them dogged to their hated rivals on their own hardwood for the first time since 2014.
This ACC showdown will take place on Saturday, February 8, 2020. Tip-off is set for 6 p.m. ET from the Dean E. Smith Center in Chapel Hill, NC. The game will be broadcast live on ESPN. So make sure to fill out your March Madness Bracket today!
CBB Betting Odds at BookMaker.eu
Odds Analysis
Since dropping successive games to the Clemson Tigers on the road and Louisville Cardinals back home, Coach K’s kids have rallied to win four straight and split those games against the closing college basketball odds. They went on to thump the Miami Hurricanes to sweep the season rivalry, and followed it up with a 79-67 win over PITT in a game that saw the Panthers give them much more than they bargained for. Last Saturday’s win at Syracuse was bonkers after the team converted 29 of 33 shots from the free throw line to cover the 6.5-point spread in the 97-88 win. Duke then simply went through the motions in a non-covering 63-55 road win and non-cover at BC. The Dookies have been a mediocre investment away from Durham this season in going 6-1 SU and 4-3 ATS.
Even with Cole Anthony back in the mix, the Tar Heels still seemingly can’t get out of their own way. While his scoring prowess has been a welcoming addition with the freshman averaging 21 points per game to go along with 6.5 rebounds and three assists since returning, UNC still went on to lose both games to Boston College as decided 12.5-point home favorites and Florida State. Though they ended up covering against the Noles, the loss was a tough one to swallow after Roy Williams kids played to within a single point at halftime and then let a 10-point lead escape them in the second half before ultimately falling 65-59 as 7.5-point underdogs. It was another wretched shooting night for the Tar Heels (31%), and the fact that they lost the rebounding battle 43-32 didn’t help matters. UNC stands 2-4 SU and ATS at home in ACC play.
Key Matchup
The Blue Devils can’t shoot the 3-ball efficiently this season. While it lofts better than 20 per game and knocks them down at a 35.4 percent clip (No. 78), they’ve only accounted for 25.8 percent of the offense’s scoring output (No. 293). On the flipside, North Carolina doesn’t effectively defend the perimeter (No. 198) and allows nearly 36 percent of the points scored against the defense to come from beyond the arc (No. 314). Something’s got to give! Especially with North Carolina more readily adept to defend what the Dookies actually do well; scoring from 2-point range. Vernon Carey Jr. has been nothing short of a monster this season in averaging 17.8 points and nine rebounds per game. However, UNC has been able to hold its own on the glass per usual, and also ranks No. 78 in 2-point defense. It’ll be interesting to see what the Blue Devils cook up if in fact UNC’s defensive prowess near the rack continues.
Prediction
I recommended laying the points with the Dookies in the Carrier Dome last week and was fortunate to cash a ticket. I did so because of the Orange’s inability to defend the perimeter yet the Blue Devils only converted 6 of 17 attempts. It was their ability to do damage in the paint as well as at the charity stripe that allowed for them to pull the game out. Though UNC ranks out similarly as Boeheim’s squad defensively, I’m going to reverse course and suggest taking the points with the Heels this time around. They enter it off two straight losses which should have them amped even more to partake in the first of two grudge matches with their hated in-state rivals. I’m still not sold on Duke being as good as its rankings suggest and expect North Carolina to be a live home dog come Saturday night!
College Basketball Pick: North Carolina 85, Duke 80
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