The No. 7 Duke Blue Devils will attempt to build upon their recent ownership of the defending national champion Virginia Cavaliers on Saturday night when the programs collide in their only skirmish of the ACC regular season. Save for bragging rights, this matchup doesn’t offer up much in the way of intrigue with both the Dookies and Wahoos locks to garner a top four seed in the upcoming ACC tournament. Even so, coach K’s troops will be out to get the bitter taste of that disturbing overtime loss to Wake Forest out of their mouths in hopes of winning and covering a third straight at online sportsbooks versus the Cavs. Having already incurred losses to both NC State and Syracuse in ACC play and South Carolina in non-conference action, UVA is no longer the lock at home it once was.
This crucial ACC throw down takes place on Saturday, February 29, 2020 with tip-off set for 6 p.m. ET from the John Paul Jones Arena in Charlottesville, VA. The game will be broadcast live on ESPN.
Odds Analysis
The road has been truly unkind to the Blue Devils in the late stages of the regular season. Since coming out victorious both SU and ATS in their first four true road treks at Michigan State, Virginia Tech, Miami and Georgia Tech, Duke has split its last six played games away from Cameron Indoor Stadium and will hit the John Paul Jones Arena hardwood having dropped two straight to NC State and the aforementioned Demon Deacons. It would’ve been three straight had North Carolina been able to hit a free throw or clean the glass in the closing moments of regulation. Be that as it may, the Dookies have won each of their last three visits to Charlottesville by an average of 8.7 points to cover the closing college basketball odds each time; the over cashed in twice.
What a crazy roller coaster of a ride this season’s been for the defending champs. Many a college basketball bettor left Tony Bennett’s squad for dead after dropping three straight and four of five to the likes of Boston College, Syracuse, Florida State and NC State towards the tail end of January. But since incurring that tough 53-51 loss to the Wolfpack as 5.5-point home favorites, the Cavaliers have gone on to win all but one of their last nine played games. On top of that, they enter this tilt with the Dookies having covered three of their last four after fending off Virginia Tech in Blacksburg last time out. They return home to the comforts of JPJ Arena where they’ve come out triumphant four straight times (2-2 ATS) against the likes of Florida State, Clemson, Notre Dame and BC.
Player to Watch
Where would the Cavaliers be right now without the services of one Kihei Clark? UVA sports one of the absolute worst offenses in the country evidenced by it being ranked No. 349 overall and shooting a wretched 41.4 percent from the field (No. 291) and just over 30 percent from beyond the arc (No. 313). As highly the Pomeroy Ratings feel about the team at the other end of the court (No. 4), it’s the exact opposite on the other where the team ranks No. 216 in offensive efficiency. While Mamadi Diakite leads the team in scoring with an average of 13.3 points per game, Clark checks in right behind him (10.8 PPG). But it’s his offerings in other areas that currently find him the MVP of the team. We’re talking assists (6.0), steals (1.2) and even rebounds (4.2). He just cut the hearts out of the Hokies burying a game-winning and pointspread covering 3-ball last time out, and will be the straw stirring the offensive drink versus Duke on Saturday night.
Prediction
The Dookies were an offensive powerhouse a season ago. With that, they forced the Cavaliers to play their type of ball and came out triumphant both times because of it. Clearly, Duke was a bad matchup for Virginia last season. Still, the Wahoos had the last laugh by going on to win it all. While the Blue Devils still play to one of the faster tempos in the country (No. 33), the offense is by no means as good or efficient as last year’s installment; regardless of what the output rankings dictate. This is going to be a war right from the opening tip with points extremely tough to come by for both parties involved. Each of the previous three meetings pre-Zion combined for low scorers with an average of 124.3 points scored. I’m expecting for this game to play out in that range once again which should equate to a combined score that fails to surpass the total.
College Basketball Pick: Duke 61, Virginia 60
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