It wouldn’t be the ACC without a battle to the end at the top of the standings. The North Carolina Tar Heels made sure there would be more intrigue over the final weeks of the season by creating a three-way tie for first with their thrashing of Duke on Wednesday night. UNC, Duke and Virginia are all 11-2 in conference with the Florida State Seminoles looking to make a run to the top. The Noles have won eight straight ACC games for the first time and can make things more interesting if they can stretch their run to nine.
Florida State Seminoles at North Carolina Tar Heels
Date and Time: Saturday, February 23, 2019, 3:45 p.m. ET
Location: Dean E. Smith Center, Chapel Hill, NC
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Florida State at North Carolina TV Coverage: CBS
Live Betting Odds Analysis
In terms of consecutive wins, Florida State is the hottest team in the ACC with eight in a row heading into Saturday’s clash. And the Noles have been able to continue their streak in a number of ways. They scored 77 or more points in six of those wins and even tasted victory when tallying 59 points. There was an 18-point win at Syracuse and an overtime decision with Louisville tossed in.
There was a hellish start to the ACC season when the Noles won just once in their first five games. But Leonard Hamilton kept the faith, saying all along it would take some time for his team to come together. They have in a big way. FSU has also been a money maker at the betting window with a 7-1 ATS record during their streak.
It sure helped the Heels when Zion Williamson left Wednesday’s game early. Not having to deal with Duke’s big man and the future No. 1 draft pick as long as his knee is healthy opened things up for the Heels and deflated the Devils. North Carolina took advantage, following up the biggest ACC road win in program history with a monster sized thrashing of the hated Dookies. There is always the threat of a letdown after such an emotional victory in the game’s biggest rivalry, and making sure that doesn’t happen will determine UNC’s fate on Saturday.
Player to Watch
Luke Maye had his way inside against Duke after Williamson left the game, scoring 30 points and grabbing 15 boards. He helped the Heels outscore the Blue Devils 62-28 in the paint. It’s going to be much harder to duplicate those numbers against the trees Florida State has in the middle, making the perimeter an important spot on the floor for UNC.
With 7-4 Christ Koumadje and 6-10 Mfiondu Kabengele packing the lane, the Noles force opponents to beat them from outside. No team has had success in the last eight tries. Maye has a nice mid-range jumper, but he’s more effective at the rim. His effectiveness will be negated by the Noles. That leaves UNC’s three guard offense to pick up the slack.
Cameron Johnson tallied 26 points at Duke on 11 of 17 shooting, but the Heels will need Coby White to step up. He scored nine points on Wednesday on 3 of 14 shooting, but he wasn’t really needed with the dominance down low. White leads the team with 156 three-point attempts and is the second leading scorer at 15.4 points per game. Knocking down some shots early will unpack the middle and give the Heels more options.
Key Stat
The Tar Heels score over 87 points per game and they are coming off consecutive games where they topped that mark. They are an efficient offensive team and they rebound the ball extremely well, giving them a number of second chance opportunities. Those numbers will be hard to reach against a lengthy FSU team.
The Noles allow 67.5 points per outing and limit opponents to fewer than 29 rebounds a game. They also average over four blocked shots per game, which helps make the defense as stingy as it is.
College Basketball Live Betting Picks
Breathing a sigh of relief after winning two straight on the road, including that behemoth matchup against Duke, we might expect a letdown from the Heels. Against another quality team like FSU, that could be trouble. The Noles aren’t as explosive offensively, but they get points from several players on the roster. Taking advantage of the opening few minutes will make the Noles a pick on the live betting lines. However, I expect UNC to respond as the game progresses and they should win this, but FSU gets the cover.
College Basketball Score Prediction: North Carolina 74, Florida State 69
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