The Kentucky Wildcats will find out a lot about themselves on Saturday when they return from a winless trip to Las Vegas at the CBS Sports Classic to take on the rival Louisville Cardinals. We’re not used to seeing the Wildcats lose two in a row and bouncing back against a quality Louisville club isn’t going to be easy. Both teams were ranked No. 1 in the country at one point, so there definitely is talent on the floor, and the Cardinals feel like they have a good chance to end a two-game slide in the series.
This college basketball matchup between top-20 teams takes place on Saturday, December 28, 2019, at 3:45 p.m. ET from Rupp Arena in Lexington, Kentucky. The game will be televised live on CBS.
Odds Analysis
Sometimes things don’t work out. That’s just the way it is in the one-and-done world of today’s college basketball landscape. You can fill a roster with four- and five-star recruits every year, but getting them to blend as a cohesive unit takes time. And sometimes the players don’t live up to the hype. I’m not sure what’s going on with Coach Cal’s squad, but it certainly looks vulnerable. There was some good, the win over preseason No. 1 Michigan State can attest to that. And there’s been plenty of bad.
In the past the Cats could get by on talent alone against lesser opponents. A home loss to Evansville was a stunner and knocked them from the No. 1 rank they obviously didn’t deserve. A wasted trip to Vegas, at least on the basketball court, only added to the misery. Losing 69-66 as a 9.5-point favorite to Utah was a shock. A few nights later they fell victim to Ohio State, 71-65, as 3.5-point chalk. Over their last nine games the Cats are 6-3 SU and 2-7 ATS.
Louisville also went through the revolving door at the top of the national rankings. The Cardinals won their first nine games, including a 58-43 decision over previously unbeaten and No. 4 Michigan. But just like the other teams that reached the pinnacle, the Cardinals faltered in a 70-57 loss to unranked Texas Tech and their stay on top was brief. The Cards easily played their worst game of the season having issues with accuracy and losing their composure.
That snafu apparently was a wakeup call because the Cards responded in a big way. They pounded Eastern Kentucky and Miami-Ohio by a combined 56 points easily covering the line both times. The Cards are 5-1 ATS in their last six and got big games from leading scorer Jordan Nwora, who tallied at least 20 points in the last two after a season-low 14 points in the Texas Tech loss. Louisville will be just fine with Nwora leading the way, and they also play strong defense that will give Kentucky shooters fits since that group has struggled to knock down shots.
Key Stat
The three-point shot has become common in basketball, and teams that can bury them at a consistent clip have more success. Maybe that’s why the Wildcats have suffered through three losses in their first 11 games. UK has made only 27.8 percent of its triples this season averaging just over four makes per game. That’s also affected the scoring average with the Cats at a 74.5 point clip, which puts them in the middle of the DI pack. And things could get sketchy against an aggressive Louisville defense. The Cards hold opponents to just 26.7 percent from behind the arc, good for 14th, and 58.4 points per game, the 15th-best mark in college basketball.
Player to Watch
To beat Louisville you have to stop Nwora. Fortunately for the Cardinals that hasn’t happened much this season. Nwora leads the team with 21.2 points per game, which is 10 points more than the second-highest scorer. And he gets points in a variety of ways, which makes him more difficult to defend. He’s attempted at least 10 field goals in every game and has made at least 50 percent of his shots eight times. Overall he’s shooting 48.1 percent from the field, 41.4 percent from deep and 80.4 percent from the line.
College Basketball Pick
Louisville has lost two straight and five of six in the series and they should feel good about their chances to get a win against their rival. The Cats have no rhythm offensively and no go-to scorers and that plays right into the Cards’ strength. I can see this game being tight and relatively low-scoring with Louisville getting a big road win.
College Basketball Pick: Louisville 75, Kentucky 71
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