What a horrendous close to the regular season it’s been for Mark Turgeon and the Maryland Terrapins. Once a surefire pick to win the B1G title outright, the Terps now need to show up on Sunday at home versus the Michigan Wolverines in order to be in the running for a shared championship; provided both Michigan State and Wisconsin hold up their end of the bargain against Ohio State and Indiana respectively. Regardless, it’s been a terrible close to the regular season for Anthony Cowan Jr. and company who could enter next week’s Big Ten tournament as low as a No. 3 seed dependent upon how the weekend’s action plays out. Making this spot even more anxious for the home team is the fact that it’s failed to topple the maize and blue in four straight and stands 1-3 ATS in those matchups. It hasn’t defeated the Wolverines at home since the 2016 season.
This Big Ten matchup is set to go down on Sunday, March 8, 2020. Tip-off will be at 12 p.m. ET from the XFINITY Center in College Park, MD. The game will be broadcast live on FOX.
Odds Analysis
For a second there, it looked like Michigan was onto something. After dropping four straight to Minnesota, Iowa, Penn State and Illinois, Juwan Howard’s men went on to rattle off wins in seven of their next eight played games and went on to cover the closing college basketball odds in all but one of those matchups; a 61-58 home loss to Ohio State. But after scoring outright dog wins at Rutgers and Purdue, the Wolverines crashed back down to earth dropping an ugly 81-74 decision at home to the Wisconsin Badgers as decided home chalk and then following it up with an embarrassing 77-63 loss in Columbus to get swept in the season rivalry with the Buckeyes. A win in this spot against an opponent its owned would no doubt improve the self-confidence of the team heading into next week’s tourney.
Though it currently sits perched atop the Big Ten standings, Maryland now has company in the forms of the Michigan State Spartans and Wisconsin Badgers; teams they stand 1-2 SU and ATS against to date. Is it possible that late-game push to shock the Golden Gophers in Minnesota was the worst thing that could’ve happened to this team? It certainly looks like it now when you take into account how listless the team looked in falling at home to Sparty and then in the RAC to Rutgers to allow the Scarlet Knights to snap their own personal three-game losing streak. With a shot at the outright title there for the taking, it’s a good thing this game is taking place in the XFINITY Center where Jalen Smith and company stand a dominant 15-1 SU and 8-7 ATS. They have however failed to cover three straight in front of the hometown faithful.
Key Stat
This is likely going to be a close game, because why not? Just know that if you take the points with the Michigan Wolverines, they’re going to drive you crazy from the free throw line. They drove me to the brink of madness missing free throw versus Wisconsin when I bought in on them on the readjusted live betting lines. Seriously, how many front ends of a 1 & 1 can you possibly miss? I’m looking at you Zavier Simpson and Brandon Johns! Regardless, Michigan ranks No. 155 from the charity stripe with a success rate just north of 71 percent. Maryland checks in at No. 59 and converts at just under 75 percent as a team. Their starting five all shoot better than 73 percent with a couple guys 80+ percent free throw shooters. Save for Isaiah Livers and Franz Wagner, Michigan sucks from the stripe. Don’t believe me, just watch!
Prediction
The Michigan Wolverines have cost me a ton of cash this season. Honestly, they’re one of the reasons why my bankroll isn’t where I’d like it to be heading into March Madness betting. With that, you might want to block out everything I have to say next. Maryland wins this one going away! I simply don’t foresee Cowan Jr. letting this game get away from him with it being the final time he takes to the hardwood in front of the College Park faithful. Up until the last few games, the Terps were nothing short of money at home. With a shot at winning the B1G outright and earning the top seed in next week’s tournament right there for the taking, I fully expect Maryland to rise to the occasion and get the job done ultimately covering the impost in the process.
College Basketball Pick: Maryland 77, Michigan 65
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