Should both Florida State and Louisville lose over the weekend, it would afford the No. 12 Duke Blue Devils the opportunity to score the program 20th regular season ACC title when they host the North Carolina Tar Heels on Saturday night. The rivalry between the Heels and Dookies is already one of the best in all of sports, but the ramifications surrounding this bout certainly ups the intrigue factor quite a few levels! Roy Williams’ kids did everything they possibly could to hand the game over to the Blue Devils at the tail end of regulation in the first meeting. Then it went on to lose in an excruciating fashion in the extra session. With that, you can expect a recently streaking UNC team to pack its “A” game for Durham in hopes of closing the year out in style by preventing their most hated rival from possibly winning the ACC and sweeping the rivalry for the first time since the 2015 season.
This heated ACC showdown will take place on Saturday, March 7, 2020. Tip-off is set for 6 p.m. ET from Cameron Indoor Stadium in Durham, NC. The game will be broadcast live on ESPN.
Odds Analysis
Since having their guts ripped out due to dropping debilitating one-possession losses to both Virginia and Notre Dame before getting waxed at Louisville, North Carolina has been playing an inspired brand of ball. The 17 point loss to the Cardinals was followed up with a win and cover at home that saw the Heels sweep the season rivalry from the NC State Wolfpack. They then went into Syracuse and laid the wood hammering the Orange 92-79 as 5.5-point underdogs. Then most recently, Roy’s boys returned home and scored a third straight win and cover versus the same Wake Forest team that just took the Dookies down in overtime; the triumph avenged the 17-point loss incurred in Winston-Salem. Needless to say, UNC is running hot but the win at the Cuse snapped a four-game road losing streak in ACC play.
Only up a bucket at the half in a game linemakers had the Blue Devils pegged 12-point favorites, things could look a whole lot more different than they do now had Duke not exploded in the second half to put an end to a two-game losing streak. Cassius Stanley put forth one of the biggest second halves of his collegiate career by scoring 14 of his 18 total points to help lead the Dookies to a second half barrage NC State was simply unable to contend with. When the dust cleared, Duke outscored the Wolfpack 50-33 over the game’s final 20 minutes to secure the 19 point win and with it the pointspread cover for those that ponied up and laid the chalk in the premiere revenge spot. The triumph moved Coach K’s troops to 14-2 SU and 9-7 ATS when playing in front of the “Cameron Crazies.”
Key Matchup
A whopping 149 shots were taken when these teams collided against one another back on February 8. Unfortunately for both squads, neither was able to get hot from the perimeter with North Carolina converting 3-of-12 shots from long range and Duke on just four of its 18. With all those misses, there were a ton of rebounds to go around. A whopping 85 to be exact and it was UNC that ended up winning the rebounding battle; but not by much (45-40). Each squad did a good job coming up with offensive rebounds as well. But the two aspects that truly separated the teams from one another were turnovers and free throw shooting. The Dookies only committed 11 turnovers and converted 76 percent of their 34 free throw attempts. UNC turned it over 18 times and only made 55 percent of its 38 throws. Had it been able to convert at a higher clip in the late stages of the game, it never would’ve gone to overtime - UNC would’ve won it going away!
Prediction
I took the points in the first go round between these hated rivals and also sprinkled some beer money on the Heels $-Line at better than 3-1. Man did it hurt to not cash that ticket! I’ve had a pretty good feel for Duke of late cashing in on them against the Wolfpack and Hokies. Both of those matchups occurred at home where the team has been nothing short of a monster all season. Even so, I’m going back to the well with the guys in powder blue. They’re currently playing a confident brand of ball that will undoubtedly have me taking a flier on them to win the ACC tournament at online sportsbooks next week. But before that, I’ll root Cole Anthony and company on in Durham after the Dookies stole one from them nearly a month ago to the day.
College Basketball Pick: North Carolina 82, Duke 81
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