Things haven’t been this bad in South Bend for some time, and they aren’t going to get any better with a trip to Tallahassee on tap for Monday night. The Notre Dame Fighting Irish need two wins in their remaining games just to match the lowest win total in the tenure of Mike Brey, and beating the Florida State Seminoles on the road is a difficult task. So we can say with a high degree of probability that Notre Dame needs two wins in its remaining games after this one. There’s a chance the Irish surprise the Noles, who are coming off a Saturday showdown with North Carolina.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Florida State Seminoles
Date and Time: Monday, February 25, 2019, 7 p.m. ET
Location: Donald L. Tucker Center, Tallahassee, FL
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Notre Dame at Florida State TV Coverage: ESPN
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They have no chance of reaching the postseason, but the Irish still have plenty to play for. There is the possibility of finishing above .500 overall and staying clear of the ACC basement. But the way things have gone for them it’s likely a stretch. Hosting Wake Forest, another team at the bottom of the league standings, the Irish had a chance to put some distance between themselves and the rest of the bottom-feeders.
Like so many times this season, the Irish crumbled at the end and drew even with the Deacs at 3-10 in league play, one game clear of last place Pitt. The problems are evident. The Irish simply don’t have enough offensive weaponry to compete in the ACC. The roster is young so there is hope for the next few seasons, as long as the group doesn’t get scarred for life over the awful season they’ve put together.
Florida State is the hottest team in the conference heading into its Saturday showdown with UNC riding an eight-game winning streak. And, much like the Irish hope for with its young group, the Noles have gotten better as the season progressed. FSU opened ACC play with just one win in five games, but rattled off its lengthy streak to climb within spitting distance of the leaders. The Noles have been good at the betting window as well with ATS payouts in five straight games and seven of eight during the streak.
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The Irish have been pathetic offensively this season, but they do have a flashy weapon in TJ Gibbs, who led the team in scoring with 23 points on 8 of 12 shooting against Wake Forest. Brey expected a few bumps along the way with a younger squad and with Rex Pflueger out with an injury. And the coach has watched his guys struggle to win games and shoot straight.
Gibbs has shown flashes lately that he can be the guy to handle the rock in crunch time. His two 20-point games of the season have occurred in the last three outings and he’s developed into a more reliable option. That could be because he’s a talented player, or because the team just lacks options. Either way, he’s advanced his game much like Brey wants he team to do.
The importance of Gibbs in this matchup can’t be overstated. It’s going to be tough for the Irish to score inside with 7-4 Christ Koumadje and 6-9 Mfiondu Kabengele manning the paint, so the perimeter game becomes a factor. If Gibbs can shoot from the outside, Notre Dame’s chances of winning increase. If not, it’s going to be a long night for the Irish.
Key Stat
It’s hard to win games if you can’t score the basketball, and the Irish are finding that out first hand. There are 351 basketball playing schools at the Division I level and Notre Dames ranks 340th in field goal percentage and 302nd in three-point shooting accuracy. For them to score an average of 70.7 points per outing is a minor miracle.
Florida State isn’t great on defense, but they are above average in several key defensive statistical categories. With a couple of sycamores manning the middle, FSU likes to take the paint away from its opponents, forcing them to win from the outside. The strategy has paid off for Leonard Hamilton and his club, which allows teams to shoot just 41.1 percent from the field.
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FSU’s two big guys don’t play a ton of minutes, so there could be some windows for John Mooney and the Irish to make a run. When Koumadje and Kabengele aren’t on the floor, play the Irish and Mooney on the betting lines. They are likely to make a run. Overall, though, the Irish lack the necessary scoring to produce a victory against a real good Florida State team.
College Basketball Score Prediction: Florida State 77, Notre Dame 64
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