Fade the Baylor Bears they said! There’s no way they show up against Iowa State after winning in the Phog they said! Its easy money they said! Well, it’s back to the drawing board for those that thought fading the No. 2 ranked team in the country was a wise choice. This spot however at home against the Oklahoma Sooners on Big Monday is an entirely different animal. Lon Kruger’s kids were pretty much handled with ease by KU in their nationally televised Super Tuesday appearance last week, so it’s pretty safe to assume they’ll come out determined to put a much better showing at online sportsbooks this time around. But will it be enough to contend with a Bears squad that’s one of the favored sides to cut the nets down in March? I’m betting it will be!
This Big 12 showdown will take place on Big Monday, January 20, 2020. Tip-off is set for 9 p.m. ET from the Ferrell Center in Waco, TX. The game will be broadcast live on ESPN. So make sure to fill out your March Madness Bracket today!
CBB Betting Odds at BookMaker.eu
Odds Analysis
There isn’t much to get excited about when breaking Lon Kruger’s Sooners down on paper. They rank out below average in field goal percentage (No. 256), 3 point percentage (No. 266) and back it up with a defense that allows .936 points per possession (No. 63). Even so, Oklahoma checks in as the No. 52 ranked team in the country per Kenpom.com. There have been some nice wins tallied by this squad regardless of it getting embarrassed by both Iowa State and Kansas leading up to Saturday’s home tilt with TCU. Still, they’ve got wins under the belt against Texas and K-State in conference play to go along with wins against Mizzou, Oregon State and Minnesota. When this team is on, they can give anyone a run for their money. That said, it’s occurred few and far between against top tier opposition.
The Bears recipe for success has been a joy to watch. Scott Drew’s kids are currently the No. 3 ranked team in the country per the most recent installment of the Pomeroy Ratings. It’s marched an efficient team onto the hardwood at both ends of the court with the offense ranked No. 25 and the defense No. 4. Their ability to limit the opposition’s scoring has ultimately been the key to getting out to an impressive 14-1 record that’s seen them cover 10 of those games against the closing college basketball odds. The unit just held Iowa State to nearly 22 points below its scoring average and concedes fewer than 58 points per game. Already with road wins in tow against Texas Tech and Kansas in Big 12 play, public bettors are likely to have a tough time not laying the home chalk in this spot.
Key Matchup
As great a defense Baylor brings with it to the table every passing game, the key to beating or at the very least keeping up with them is being competitive on the glass. The Bears aren’t a great shooting team evidenced by their 43.3 field goal percentage (No. 209). While they’ve been clutch from beyond the arc early on in Big 12 play, I’m not too sure they’re as great from deep as they’ve shown to this point. With that, it would behoove the Sooners to hit the defensive glass with reckless abandon if in fact they don’t want to get laughed off the court against a conference heavyweight once again. Kansas destroyed the Sooners on the glass 44-29 and only allowed them to secure 22 defensive rebounds. Do that against Baylor who ranks No. 32 overall in rebound rate and you can kiss the game goodbye. This is a tall ask considering OU ranks No. 207 itself in rebound rate, but it’s something to keep an eye on early for live betting purposes. If OU is battling on the glass, they’ll make a game of this. If not, smell ya later!
Prediction
The last time the Sooners packed their bags for Waco, they returned home on the short end of a 59-53 loss that saw them push against the closing 6-point spread. The loss moved them to 2-5 SU and a bankroll depleting 1-5-1 ATS in the last seven run-ins with the Bears. As dominant Baylor has been in the recent rivalry, I’m willing to wait this one out and see just how high the betting markets push the number to beat with the Bears likely amidst a 14-game win streak after traveling to Oklahoma State on Saturday. The Bears are no longer hiding in the shadows. Public bettors are firmly aware of who they are now which will force linemakers to start inflating the pointspread in their games until the unavoidable correction occurs. Baylor can’t be locked in every game like they’ve been to date; it’s physically impossible. OU will be getting a big number here tonight. Should they be able to compete in the battle of the boards and knock down a high percentage clip from long range, it’ll have no problem sticking within the impost.
College Basketball Pick: Baylor 75, Oklahoma 68
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