The home team had come out on top six straight times before the No. 2 Baylor Bears went into Lubbock and handed the No. 22 Texas Tech Red Raiders a 57-52 defeat as 3.5-point underdogs in early January. Chris Beard’s troops will attempt to return the favor in the last Big Monday telecast of the college basketball betting season when they invade Waco looking to even the season rivalry. Easier said than done however considering Scott Drew’s kids have only been defeated in front of the hometown faithful once this season, and it just so happened to occur against the No. 1 team in the land – Rock Chalk! Two of the last three skirmishes held in the Ferrell Center between these squads have played to low scorers with just under 127 points scored on average. Tonight’s matchup will be extremely physical as well making points tough to come by once again.
This Big 12 matchup is set to go down on Monday, March 2, 2020. Tip-off will be at 9 p.m. ET from Ferrell Center in Waco, TX. The game will be broadcast live on ESPN.
Odds Analysis
Embarrassing is the only way to describe the Red Raiders effort last time out in Norman a game removed from blowing the doors off the Iowa State Cyclones in Ames. Tech was never in it immediately falling into a double-digit deficit right from the outset. When the dust cleared on the horrific effort, Texas Tech found itself on the wrong end of an ugly 65-51 final that it actually went off the betting board short favorites to win. OU went on to shoot 47 percent from the floor and dominated the glass en route to winning the rebounding battle 35-26. Kevin McCullar led Tech in scoring with 13 points, but he only converted 6-of-17 shots to get there. The defeat dropped the team to 3-5 SU and 4-4 ATS on the Big 12 road.
After seeing their Big 12-record 23-game win streak come to a close against the Jayhawks, the betting markets looked to fade the Bears in their home tilt against Kansas State immediately after. It proved to be an unwise decision. Baylor opened up as 15-point home chalk, but got bet down to -13 at one point before smarter money came in and pushed it back up. In showing just how bonafide a title contender they are, the Bears took the Wildcats out behind the woodshed and served up the proverbial beating going on to win by an 85-66 final count. Up 50-24 at the break, Baylor took its foot off the gas over the game’s final 20 minutes yet still went on to cover the closing number and move to 13-1 SU and 7-7 ATS as hosts.
Key Stat
Baylor went into Lubbock and scored the outright win and cover at online sportsbooks by way of dominating the glass over the course of the game’s entirety. Freddie Gillespie and Mark Vital led the way for the Bears in combining for 23 rebounds that allowed for it to hold an impressive +16 advantage on the glass. A whopping 14 of those rebounds came off the offensive glass setting up valuable second and third chance scoring opportunities in a game that saw both teams combine for just 105 shots. With points likely to once again be extremely tough to come by, it’s hard to envision Texas Tech remaining competitive if it can’t find a way to compete with the Bears on the glass. Chris Clarke and TJ Holyfield must rise to the occasion so as to not allow Baylor to hold such an extreme advantage once again.
Prediction
This has the look of one of the bigger rock fights of the season on paper. Baylor owns the No. 3 ranked defensive efficiency in the country while Texas Tech checks in at No. 6 per the current Pomeroy Ratings. These teams combined to make just 11 of 36 shots from beyond the arc in the first meeting, and each still ranks top 50 defending the 3-ball entering the rematch. The Bears were able to get away with turning the ball over 18 times in the first go round to live to tell about it. Do that again, and they won’t be so lucky. Baylor will be the favored side by linemakers on Monday night. My recommendation is to take as many points with the visiting Red Raiders as possible, and also look to hit the under with every shot contested all the way through.
College Basketball Pick: Baylor 60, Texas Tech 59
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