Only two teams have won the Big East since the reformation of the league in 2014, and those two squads open a new season of conference play on Monday when the Xavier Musketeers visit the Villanova Wildcats. Nova entered the Christmas break on a high after knocking off No. 1 Kansas for their fifth straight win. The X-men have won two in a row since a heartbreaking loss at Wake Forest and will try for their first road win against the Wildcats since joining the Big East.
This college basketball showdown takes place on Monday, December 30, 2019, with tipoff set for 6:30 p.m. ET from Finneran Pavilion in Villanova, Pennsylvania. The game will be broadcast on FS1. BookMaker.eu will have NCAA basketball odds for every game on the Monday schedule.
Odds Analysis
For the first time since joining the Big East in 2013-14, the Musketeers failed to win 20 games by going 19-16 last season. They are well on their way to bettering that mark and will seek to do something they haven’t done as a league member – win at Villanova. Xavier is 0-8 at Nova since that first season and just 6-28 all-time against the Cats. The Musketeers enter league play on a two-game winning streak after knocking off Western Carolina and TCU, the latter as a 2.5-point road dog in the Big East/Big 12 Battle. They are 11-2 SU and just 4-9 ATS.
Xavier will have to be good on the defensive side to slow down Nova’s potent offense. The Musketeers got greased up for the challenge by holding TCU to a season-low 32.8 percent from the field and holding Frogs’ leading scorer Desmond Bane without a field goal and just two points in the first half. The Musketeers led by 20 with just under four minutes to play and won 67-59. “Our defense was really good for about 35 minutes. We made them earn almost every one of their shots,” coach Travis Steele said.
An early season beatdown from Ohio State had Jay Wright questioning his team. The group responded by winning eight of nine, including a huge win over top-ranked Kansas last time out. That gave the Cats their first win over a ranked foe and has them riding a five-game winning streak into their Big East opener. And Nova has to feel good about its chances. They are 12-2 SU and 11-3 ATS overall against Xavier since the two became league foes.
With the offense struggling, the Cats still found a way to beat Kansas, which is a sign of a good team. They shot just 35 percent from the field and made only 10 of 41 three-pointers, but the last make was the biggest. Jermaine Samuels drilled the eventual game-winner with 20 seconds remaining and Nova got a stop at the other end for the 56-55 win. It was only the second time the Cats scored fewer than 78 points in a game.
Key Stat
Villanova had scored at least 78 points in eight straight games before facing Kansas. Two players – Cole Swider and Saddiq Bey – are shooting better than 41 percent from three-point range. Justin Moore and Collin Gillespie can also knock down triples. Those four take nearly 70 percent of Nova’s three-pointers and as a team the Cats are shooting over 36 percent from deep while averaging nearly 27 three-point attempts per game. “If they’re going to give us 3s, we’ll take them when we can,” Samuels said.
Playing lockdown defense the Musketeers held their last two opponents to a combined 34.5 percent overall and 30.6 percent on three-pointers beating Western Carolina, 74-61, and TCU, 67-59. For the season they allow opponents to shoot less than 30 percent from behind the three-point line.
Player to Watch
If the Musketeers are going to get a rare win at Villanova they’ll need Naji Marshall at his finest. The team’s leading scorer netted just eight points against TCU, but he was lauded for his defensive effort against the Frogs’ leading scorer, holding Desmond Bane without a first half field goal as the primary defender. Marshall is also getting back to full strength after missing the previous outing with an illness. Marshall showed what he can do offensively with a 31-point outburst in a win over Cincinnati a few weeks ago, and he’s averaging 16.2 per game.
College Basketball Pick
As good as Xavier has looked this season it’s hard to go against Nova at home. The Cats have owned the series and they’re coming off a huge victory over Kansas, giving them plenty of steam heading into the Big East opener. The Cats will be favored and I anticipate their offense bouncing back after a dreadful shooting performance last time out.
College Basketball Pick: Villanova 74, Xavier 63
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