The greatest rivalry in college basketball will see another game played this weekend when the North Carolina Tar Heels welcome the Duke Blue Devils to the Dean Dome. This will be Coach Mike Krzyzewski’s last game against the Tar Heels in Chapel Hill, and he will want to go out on top. Coach K is 49-46 all-time against North Carolina in his career, so a victory will ensure that he retires with a winning record against the Tar Heels.
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Duke comes into this game with a top ten ranking and an 18-3 record. The Blue Devils’ only losses this season have come against Ohio State, Miami (FL), and Florida State, and those defeats were by a combined eight points. The ACC isn’t great this year, but Duke is in line to be a top seed in the NCAA Tournament.
The North Carolina Tar Heels are still searching for a top 40 win. Their best win this season was against Michigan, but that victory no longer looks as good as it did in early December. UNC has won four straight games, but none of those teams are above .500 in ACC play.
What to Watch
Paolo Banchero is one of the best college basketball players in the country. Banchero should be a lottery pick in the 2022 NBA Draft barring injury, and he is averaging 17.8 PPG and 8.3 RPG. He is rated the sixth-best player in the nation according to Ken Pomeroy, as he is knocking down 49.6% of his field goals and 75% of his free throws as a big man. His three-point range isn’t great though.
We have seen solid play out of junior Wendell Moore as well. Moore wasn’t great during his first two years in Durham, but he is averaging 14.2 PPG, 5.5 RPG, and 4.5 APG. He is the most reliable shooter on the Blue Devils too, knocking down 52.3% of his field goals and 40.3% of his threes.
Duke sends fewer teams to the free throw line than almost any other team in the country, and the Blue Devils rank 25th in perimeter defense. They are above average at knocking down their threes and excel in the paint. This team is playing solid fundamental basketball too, and the only thing they struggle with at times is rebounds.
Armando Bacot is the main offensive weapon for the Tar Heels. Bacot leads the team in scoring and rebounds with 16.5 PPG and 12.5 RPG. He does a decent job getting to the free throw line, but he doesn’t have the range that teams like in big men these days.
North Carolina has two solid guards in Caleb Love and R.J. Davis. Both Love and Davis are averaging about 3.5 APG while hitting 42% or better from beyond the arc.
The Tar Heels do not play good defense. They are among the worst teams in the country at forcing turnovers, and they rank outside the top 125 in both perimeter defense and interior defense. That doesn’t bode well against Duke.
Duke Blue Devils at North Carolina Tar Heels Free Pick
The over is probably a good bet in this game, while Duke is the side to take considering the Blue Devils are the much better team with a retiring coach to boot. Banchero can have a big game on Saturday evening.
Blue Devils at Tar Heels Best Bet: Over
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