As it stands right now, the Duke Blue Devils aren’t in the Field of 64. To qualify, Coach K’s squad is going to need to win the ACC Tournament with it 15-9 SU and only 9-8 SU in conference play. As for Roy Williams and the North Carolina Tar Heels, most bracketologists have them installed a No. 10 or No. 11 seed. Some even have the Heels making their first-ever appearance in the First Four! Duke is a 285-1 choice to win the national championship at online sportsbooks, while UNC clocks in at 120-1; my how the mighty have fallen! While a win won’t punch the Dookies ticket to the dance, it could set them up for a solid run next week when it would have the opportunity to shut all its naysayers up. That’s something the Heels would undoubtedly love to prevent as it attempts to sweep the regular season rivalry much like the Blue Devils did to them a short season ago.
Take this ACC matchup in live on ESPN at 6 p.m. ET from the Dean E. Smith Center on Saturday, March 6, 2021. We'll have NCAA basketball odds at BookMaker.eu available for this and every game on Saturday’s college basketball schedule.
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Odds Analysis
Duke invades Chapel Hill off a tough 81-77 overtime loss at Georgia Tech as 1-point underdogs. The defeat dropped the Dookies to 3-5 SU and ATS when playing away from Cameron Indoor Stadium. North Carolina will also enter this tilt off a loss after getting nipped at Syracuse by a 72-70 final count as 2.5-point road favorites. They’ll return home looking to improve upon their 9-2 SU and 6-5 ATS records for the season. Though UNC only managed to pull out the 91-87 outright win and cover as 2.5-point underdogs in the first meeting a month ago to the day, Duke supporters never once felt like they had a shot of cashing in a ticket. The 178 combined points shattered the 147.5-point closing total to move the over to 3-0 in the last three meetings.
Duke Blue Devils
Losers of two straight overtime games against Louisville at home and Georgia Tech on the road, the Blue Devils will attempt to close the regular season out on a high in hopes of winning in the Dean Dome for the second straight time. Wendell Moore Jr. and Mark Williams tried their best in helping lead Duke to the road win against the ‘Ramblin Wreck, but their 40 combined points, 15 rebounds, 4 assists and 3 blocks ultimately didn’t end up being enough. For the Dookies to have any shot of evening up the series, they’re going to need to produce a more efficient offensive attack and compete on the glass. Matthew Hurt’s 12 points against GTECH was the only other double-digit scoring output with the next highest point tally coming in at eight; not good enough!
North Carolina Tar Heels
After coming back to shock the Florida State Seminoles at home over the weekend, the Heels were ripe to suffer a major letdown on Big Monday at Syracuse. I recommended backing the Orange for that contest and came out a winner after Roy Williams’ troops fell by a 72-70 final count as short road chalk. Though Armando Bacot erupted for 18 points and a career-high 15 rebounds to allow for UNC to dominate the battle of the boards (48-30), the individual effort simply wasn’t enough to mask such poor collective shooting from the offense. UNC would shoot a poor 38 percent from the field and connect on just 4 of 20 long range shots. On top of that, it turned the ball over a whopping 20 times which Syracuse took full advantage of.
Duke vs. North Carolina Prediction
Desperate times call for desperate measures, and it doesn’t get any more desperate than this for the win-hungry Duke Blue Devils. I recommended backing the Dookies in the first go round and expected them to be laying upwards of 5-points with the total set in the mid to high 140s. Linemakers opened the game at -4 and it was immediately bet down to my surprise to -3 or -2.5 dependent upon where you shop. The total opened 145 before closing 147.5. Neither defense showed with 80 or more points logged in each half and both squads shooting better than 53 percent from the field. It won’t be that easy to score this time around. With that, look to take advantage of what’s likely to be an inflated total by hitting the low side of it. Should you feel the need to own a side in this rematch, I’d take whatever points oddsmakers are giving the Blue Devils and sprinkle some beer money on the $$$-Line with the Dookies going all-out to even the score!
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