It hasn’t been a good year for the ACC. This conference is used to being the best or at least one of the best conferences in the country, but they are currently ranked sixth in Ken Pomeroy’s overall rankings behind the other power conferences. Duke is the only team that is certainly in the NCAA Tournament at this point with a 23-4 record, but only one other team has 20 or more wins. The Virginia Cavaliers are one of the teams on the bubble, and a win over Duke would do wonders for their March Madness hopes.
Duke Blue Devils at Virginia Cavaliers
When: Wednesday, February 23, 2022, 7 p.m. ET
Where: John Paul Jones Arena, Charlottesville, Virginia
TV: ESPN
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Duke is 13-3 in ACC play, and the Blue Devils’ three losses have come by a combined four points. They have won five of their last seven games by double digits, and they have won nine of their last 10 tilts overall. The lone loss in that stretch came against Virginia at Cameron Indoor Stadium as the Wahoos edged the Blue Devils 69-68. Duke trailed for much of the game before taking the lead late. Reece Beekman was the hero for the Cavaliers though, sinking a three-pointer with three seconds left to give UVA a big road win.
Virginia’s NCAA Tournament hopes were on life support in late January. The Cavaliers were 12-9 and 6-5 in conference after a road loss to Notre Dame. They have since rallied to win five of their last six games with the lone loss coming on the road to Virginia Tech. UVA hasn’t lost a home game since January 15, and the Wahoos are counting on the home crowd to be electric on Wednesday night.
What to Watch
Ken Pomeroy has Duke ranked ninth in the country after the Blue Devils blasted FSU over the weekend. Mike Krzyzewski’s team avenged its earlier defeat at the hands of the Seminoles, and they are looking to do the same again here. However, this is the game they are most likely to lose in their last four regular season tilts.
The Blue Devils have one of the best players in the country. Paolo Banchero has a great chance of being the fourth Duke player in the last five years to be named ACC Player of the Year after Marvin Bagley III, Zion Williamson, and Tre Jones won this award in 2018, 2019, and 2020. Banchero is leading the Blue Devils in scoring (16.9 PPG) and rebounding (8.4 RPG). His perimeter shooting has taken a hit in recent weeks though, as he is just 3-17 from beyond the arc in his last five games.
This is a very efficient offense that rarely turns the ball over. Duke ranks fifth nationally in turnover rate on offense, and the defense is pretty good too. They rarely send opponents to the line and rank 20th in effective field goal percentage on defense.
Virginia has three bad losses on its resume. The Cavaliers lost to Navy, James Madison, and North Carolina State this season, damaging the team’s chances of going dancing this March.
Jayden Gardner is the leading scorer on UVA. Gardner is averaging 15.3 PPG and 7.1 RPG, ranking first on the Cavaliers in both categories. He is the one player that can get his own shot when the team needs it, as he is making 51.7% of his field goals.
Tony Bennett hasn’t changed his philosophy even though UVA is a Three-and-D team that is only making 32% of its threes while playing mediocre defense. The Cavaliers rank 79th in defensive efficiency per Pomeroy, and that could lead to this program missing the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2013.
Duke Blue Devils at Virginia Cavaliers Free Pick
Coach K will go out a winner at John Paul Jones Arena, as the Blue Devils are a more well-rounded team than the Cavaliers this season.
Blue Devils at Cavaliers Best Bet: Duke
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