Massive turnover in Tallahassee left the Florida State Seminoles and coach Leonard Hamilton wondering how the team would respond. Well, it wasn’t a good beginning with the Noles losing their first four games and nine of 10. There were signs that maybe they’re turning a corner with three wins in their last four games however continuing that trend is going to be difficult with a matchup against the Duke Blue Devils on Saturday. Last time out the Blue Devils were beaten handily on the road by Wake Forest, just their third loss of the season. The Dookies are 7-0 SU and 4-3 ATS at home, though, and they’ve won the last seven meetings at Cameron Indoor.
This war on the floor will go down Saturday, December 31, 2022 at 1 p.m. ET at Cameron indoor Stadium in Durham, NC. The game will be televised live on ESPN2. We'll have NCAA basketball odds at BookMaker.eu available for this and every game on the college basketball schedule.
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Odds Analysis
The Noles used the preseason wisely getting a bunch of new faces playing time while figuring out rotations. There was little success in that span, but the hope is that the team is better in ACC action. Only five players from last season’s squad made their way back so there was an adjustment period. An 81-72 win over Mercer was the Noles’ lone success in their first 10 games. They had only one payout in the first eight games before staying within the double-digit line in losses to ranked Purdue and Virginia. Things could be paying off with the Noles winning three of their last four games while going 5-1 ATS in their last six.
Duke will be a significant favorite in this game and rightfully so. They are 10-3 and coming off a loss at Wake Forest when they were without key contributors Dariq Whitehead and Dereck Lively II. The other two setbacks were to ranked Kansas and Purdue on a neutral court. Whitehead and Lively are expected back given the length of time off between games, and the Blue Devils are home where they have a huge edge. They’ve taken advantage of that already this season winning all seven games with payouts in four of them.
Florida State Seminoles
An improved offense has helped the Noles get on a little run. They scored at least 73 points in each of their last four games topping their season average and winning three times. In 10 games prior to that FSU scored more than 73 points just twice. They were able to cash the OVER in the last two games and maybe the ball is starting to bounce their way. With a chance to win the game on their final possession, Notre Dame turned the ball over giving FSU a 73-72 victory.
The Noles aren’t losing because they lack talent. Matthew Cleveland is a star posting three straight double-doubles. He had 19 points and 12 rebounds in the Notre Dame game. Over the last four outings Cleveland is averaging 17.5 points and 10.8 boards. But they are missing some players leaving them shy in depth. Cam’Ron Fletcher is likely done for the season due to a knee injury sustained a few weeks ago. Fletcher averaged 10.8 points and a team best 7.8 boards.
Duke Blue Devils
Taking over for a legend is never easy and first-year coach Jon Scheyer is learning first hand. Sure the Dookies have won 77 percent of their games, but their loss to Wake gave them three setbacks before January for the first time since Mike Krzyzewski’s third season three decades ago. The absence of both Lively II and Whitehead played a role in the Wake game. The defense and rebounding was lacking without 7-foot Lively manning the middle and the rotation was reduced to seven players. Both could be available on Saturday.
What impact does Lively II have? Well, for the season Duke allows an average of 60.4 points with Wake going 20 points over that number. The teams went above the total and the OVER is 4-1 in Duke’s last five outings. Leading scorer Kyle Filipowski was held to a season-low nine points by Wake making just 28.6 percent of his shots. “We can’t be fragile. We need to be tough minded and defend,” Scheyer said after Wake shot nearly 50 percent and became the first team to score more than 75 points against Duke’s scrappy defense.
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The Noles may have turned a corner with their recent run of success, but they are going against a squad that was embarrassed last time out. Getting Lively II and Whitehead back in the rotation fills a few voids and FSU just isn’t good enough or deep enough to pull off another upset like they did last season, which is why I’m backing the Blue Devils.
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