On paper this game looks like a laugher. The Houston Cougars won 20 of 22 games, reached No. 1 in the national rankings and have dominated the American Athletic Conference once again bringing back memories of the Phi Slama Jama days. But the games aren’t played on paper as those teams will tell you and the Cougars look to avoid the same letdown in Thursday’s matchup with the Wichita State Shockers. In one of the most improbable upsets, Houston with its star studded lineup lost to NC State in the 1983 national championship. This year’s squad is just hoping for a chance to play for a national title after losing in the Sweet 16 last year and in the Final Four in 2021 while going a combined 60-10 over the two seasons.
This college basketball game will go down Thursday, February 2, 2023 at 9 p.m. ET at Charles Koch Arena in Wichita, KS. The game will air live on ESPN2. We'll have NCAA Basketball odds at BookMaker.eu available for this and every game on the college basketball schedule.
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Odds Analysis
Houston is not unbeatable, but they’ve been pretty damn close. Coming off a 32-win campaign and a trip to the Sweet 16, this edition has its sights set on bigger things; namely a national championship. Teams from mid-major conferences don’t always get the respect they deserve, but this group has earned it. The Cougs spent four weeks at No. 1 in the AP poll and haven’t been outside the top-5 all season. Winning at least 23 games in each of the previous five seasons gets you noticed. While the schedule hasn’t been as daunting as some other ranked clubs, the Cougars have done enough to maintain their standing among college basketball’s elite. They opened the season with nine straight wins going 7-2 ATS before losing to No. 6 Alabama. Overall the Cougars are 20-2 SU and 14-8 ATS.
It wasn’t that long ago the Shockers were where Houston is now. In nine seasons between 2009 and 2018 the Shockers won at least 25 games every year with seven consecutive NCAA Tournament appearances. However, a move to the AAC and the resignation of successful coach Gregg Marshall put WSU on a path to mediocrity. Last year they won just 15 games, the programs fewest in 14 years. And right now they are just 11-10 SU and 10-10-1 ATS. Since moving to the AAC for the 2017-18 season the Shockers are 2-8 against Houston, though they’ve played a number of close games with WSU earning payouts in each of the last four.
Houston Cougars
Playing defense is a big deal to Kelvin Sampson and it resonates with his players. The Cougars rank third nationally allowing an average of fewer than 59 points while holding opponents to 35.2 percent shooting. You still have to score to win games and the Cougars have done enough on that end of the floor. But when shots don’t fall even the defense can’t bail them out. Two weeks ago they held Temple to 31 percent shooting and 56 points – and lost. That’s because Houston shot 34 percent and was just 11 of 21 from the free throw line.
Rebounding from that effort, the Cougars played a dominant road game knocking off UCF 82-71 covering the 10-point line. They then rebounded from a double-digit deficit to beat Cincinnati 75-69 last time out behind 25 points and seven rebounds from Jarace Walker. In their losses the Cougs averaged just 60 points, over 15 points below their season average.
Wichita State Shockers
I’m not sure if the Shockers play tough defense because they can’t score or if the stingy effort prevents them from scoring. Either way, Wichita State relies on pressure forcing opponents into mistakes. For the season the Shockers average 68.3 points but they’ve turned things up a notch lately with the help of Jaykwon Walton. After scoring more than 70 five times in their first 16 games, the Shockers topped that number in each of their last five outings averaging nearly 80 points in that span.
The offensive outburst allowed the Shockers to cash the OVER in each of their last six games after playing below the closing total in 11 of their first 15 games. Walker scored in double figures in each of the last five games averaging nearly 18 points moving his team best scoring average to 13.3 points. Unfortunately there isn’t a lot of scoring depth making me think the recent surge is the exception. And the Shockers suck from behind the arc hitting just 29.9 percent of their threes.
Free College Basketball ATS Picks
The total is coming in low for this game and I still like the UNDER considering WSU’s inability to make threes. And they need to hit a bunch against a more talented Houston club. The Cougs are still reeling from their loss to Temple and I see them running away in the second half.
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