Following a recent stretch where they lost twice in three games, the Kentucky Wildcats dropped out of the national rankings for the first time this season. As an unranked foe the Cats will be underdogs for their SEC matchup with No. 7 Alabama Crimson Tide on Saturday. Bama has the unique distinction of knocking off the No. 1 team in the country twice this season, beating North Carolina and Houston on the road a few weeks later. There is one common theme between the clubs; they both lost to powerhouse Gonzaga making up a third of their combined losses.
This war on the floor will go down Saturday, January 7, 2023 at 1 p.m. ET at Coleman Coliseum in Tuscaloosa, AL. The game will be televised live on ESPN. We'll have NCAA basketball odds at BookMaker.eu available for this and every game on the college basketball schedule.
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Odds Analysis
Most programs in the country would take what the Wildcats have done this season. But this is Kentucky and the bar is set at a ridiculously high level. The Cats beat teams they were expected to beat taking down the likes of Howard, Duquesne, South Carolina State and Yale. However, when the competition stiffened Kentucky had problems. They dropped games to ranked UCLA and Gonzaga and were edged in OT by Michigan State. They were stunned by unranked Missouri last week, their second loss in three games, but rebounded with a strong offensive showing to rout Louisville, 86-63. They’ve been a disaster at the betting window, though, without a payout since November going 0-6-1 ATS.
With their wins over UNC and Houston the Tide accomplished something that hasn’t been done in over five decades: beating the No. 1 ranked team twice before the calendar year ended. The win over the Cougs was most impressive coming back from a 15-point second half deficit by scoring 44 second half points against a team that allows just over 50 per game. Their only two setbacks came to highly-ranked Gonzaga and UConn leaving them at 4-2 SU and 3-2-1 ATS against ranked opposition. Bama was 1-5-1 ATS in seven games before covering the 2-point line in a 78-67 win over No. 21 Mississippi State.
Kentucky Wildcats
Averaging 17.3 points and 15.3 rebounds last season earned Oscar Tshiebwe National Player of the Year recognition. He’s not quite at the same level this season but pretty damn close. while the team struggled in an 89-75 loss to Missouri, Tshiebwe had a monster game with 23 points on 11 of 17 shooting and 19 rebounds. It’s the second time this season with at least 22 points and 18 boards in a game. Following the loss John Calipari said his team is not in sync offensively; whatever the club did prior to the Louisville game worked.
Tshiebwe had 24 points and 14 rebounds in the 23-point win over the Cards and Jacob Toppin also had 24 points. Between them they were 20 of 28 from the floor and the Cats shot 59 percent helping them cash the OVER for a third straight game. They average 79 points and that number could be higher with better accuracy from the free throw line. UK shoots just 65.9 percent from the stripe and was just 16 of 25 against Louisville.
Alabama Crimson Tide
With leading scorer Brandon Miller missing all eight field goals and not scoring a point in the first half, the Tide still managed to beat Houston. That tells you a lot about the character of the squad. Offense hasn’t been an issue averaging over 83 points to rank in the top-15 nationally. Miller rebounded from his 8-point game against Houston scoring 60 over his next two, including a 36-point effort against Gonzaga. He leads the team with 19.2 points and 8.8 rebounds per game. Mark Sears scores 14.5 points per game with both averaging more than 32 minutes of run time.
Nate Oats goes deep down the bench with seven other players averaging more than 16 minutes and they’ve each chipped in when needed. Noah Clowney had 22 points and nine boards in a closer than expected win over South Dakota State last month and Jaden Bradley had a season-high 18 points in the Gonzaga game. Oats would like to see his post players stay out of foul trouble after MSU’s Tolu Smith got to the stripe 15 times. Drew Timme scored 29 on 12 of 18 shooting with 10 boards for the Zags leaving Bama vulnerable against Tshiebwe.
Free College Basketball ATS Picks
Talent outshines depth and 20-year-old kids can run up and down the court all day. UK is plenty talented and we saw what they’re capable of in the Louisville game. I think they just needed a game like that to validate their existence in the college basketball sphere and Tshiebwe can have a big game against a team that struggles with its interior defense.
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