The most underrated part of the college basketball season is the week before the start of the NCAA Tournament. Almost every conference is holding its conference tournament then, and that gives all 350+ Division I teams one more time to save their season. Only a handful of Cinderellas manage to emerge and oust the top teams in their conference in order to claim their conference’s automatic bid, but those that do get the chance to become March Madness legends.
MAC First Round
Central Michigan -10 vs. Western Michigan, O/U 154
Eastern Michigan -2 vs. Ball State, O/U 132.5
Akron -5.5 vs. Miami (Ohio), O/U 129.5
Northern Illinois -4 vs. Ohio, O/U 139
My favorite bet in the first round of the MAC Tournament is Akron. The Zips are the third-best team in the conference if you put faith in Ken Pomeroy’s ratings, even though they finished the regular season with an 8-10 record in conference. Akron was one of the three unluckiest teams in the nation this season, and the Zips came very close to beating both Clemson and Nevada in non-conference play.
The Zips have one of the top defenses in the country, and that is important in conference tournaments. It’s easier to rely on defense than on a team with streaky tendencies, and Akron knows how to defend very well. This is also one of the top rebounding teams in the conference, and they will have an advantage over Miami in that department.
A play on Central Michigan might be in order too. The Chippewas are playing on their home court and they are far and away better than a Western Michigan team that managed to win just two games in MAC play.
Horizon Conference Semifinals
Wright State -6 vs. Wisconsin Green Bay, O/U 148
Northern Kentucky -5 vs. Oakland, O/U 152.5
Winning on the road has been a difficult proposition in the Horizon League this season. No team finished better than .500 away from home, and even the conference’s best teams routinely stumbled to the cellar dwellers on their opponent’s home court.
That’s why Oakland might be worth a play here. Although the Horizon Conference Semifinals are being held at a neutral court, Oakland’s campus is just outside Detroit, so they are likely to have a home court advantage. The Grizzlies can shoot the lights out and upset the Norse.
WCC Semifinals
Gonzaga -23.5 vs. Pepperdine, O/U 156.5
Saint Mary’s CA -5 vs. San Diego, O/U 128
I’ll be paying attention to the WCC Semifinals more than any other conference tournament games on Monday. Thus far, the WCC has it all. There are two teams that have caught fire in No. 7 San Diego and No. 8 Pepperdine, and they are now taking on the conference’s two heavyweights in Gonzaga and St. Mary’s.
Gonzaga-Pepperdine is likely to be a stayaway game for me. I think the Bulldogs win handily over a Pepperdine team that likes to run and gun, but 23 points is a lot to cover.
However, in the second game, I’m going to take my chances with the Gaels even though the Toreros have been awfully impressive. San Diego has won its three previous conference tournament games by 20, 17, and 23 points, but the Toreros did not give their top players too much rest. Three of their stars played 30 minutes or more in the three blowouts, and now they are playing their fourth game in five days. That’s not a recipe for success against a St. Mary’s team that plays tenacious defense.
MEAC First Round
Savannah State -6.5 vs. Delaware State, O/U 155
The MEAC can be a crapshoot, but Delaware State is the worst team in the country. Their advanced numbers are awful and they can’t do anything well. I’ll lay the chalk with Savannah State.
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